Daily Papers

Correlation does not imply causation, but patterns of statistical association between variables can be exploited to infer a causal structure (even with purely observational data) with the burgeoning field of causal discovery. As a purely observational science, astrophysics has much to gain by exploiting these new methods. The supermassive black hole (SMBH)--galaxy interaction has long been constrained by observed scaling relations, that is low-scatter correlations between variables such as SMBH mass and the central velocity dispersion of stars in a host galaxy's bulge. This study, using advanced causal discovery techniques and an up-to-date dataset, reveals a causal link between galaxy properties and dynamically-measured SMBH masses. We apply a score-based Bayesian framework to compute the exact conditional probabilities of every causal structure that could possibly describe our galaxy sample. With the exact posterior distribution, we determine the most likely causal structures and notice a probable causal reversal when separating galaxies by morphology. In elliptical galaxies, bulge properties (built from major mergers) tend to influence SMBH growth, while in spiral galaxies, SMBHs are seen to affect host galaxy properties, potentially through feedback in gas-rich environments. For spiral galaxies, SMBHs progressively quench star formation, whereas in elliptical galaxies, quenching is complete, and the causal connection has reversed. Our findings support theoretical models of hierarchical assembly of galaxies and active galactic nuclei feedback regulating galaxy evolution. Our study suggests the potentiality for further exploration of causal links in astrophysical and cosmological scaling relations, as well as any other observational science.

We investigate the impact of massive primordial black holes (PBHs; m_{rm BH}sim 10^6~M_{odot}) on the star formation and first galaxy assembly process using high-resolution hydrodynamical simulations from z = 1100 to z sim 9. We find that PBH accretion is self-regulated by feedback, suppressing mass growth unless feedback is weak. PBHs accelerate structure formation by seeding dark matter halos and gravitationally attracting gas, but strong feedback can delay cooling and suppress star formation. In addition, the presence of baryon-dark matter streaming creates an offset between the PBH location and the peaks induced in gas density, promoting earlier and more efficient star formation compared to standard LambdaCDM. By z sim 10, PBH-seeded galaxies form dense star clusters, with PBH-to-stellar mass ratios comparable to observed high-z AGN like UHZ-1. Our results support PBHs as viable SMBH seeds but do not exclude alternative scenarios. We emphasize that PBH-seeding provides a natural explanation for some of the newly-discovered overmassive SMBHs at high redshift, in particular those with extreme ratios of BH-to-dynamical (virial) mass that challenge standard formation channels. Future studies with ultra-deep JWST surveys, the Roman Space Telescope, and radio surveys with facilities such as SKA and HERA will be critical in distinguishing PBH-driven SMBH growth from other pathways.

We study stellar core growth in simulations of merging massive (M_star>10^{11},M_odot) elliptical galaxies by a supermassive black hole (SMBH) displaced by gravitational wave induced recoil velocity. With controlled, dense sampling of the SMBH recoil velocity, we find the core radius originally formed by SMBH binary scouring can grow by a factor of 2-3 when the recoil velocity exceeds sim50 per cent of the central escape velocity, and the mass deficit grows by up to a factor of sim4. Using Bayesian inference we predict the distribution of stellar core sizes formed through this process to peak at sim1,kpc. An orbital decomposition of stellar particles within the core reveals that radial orbits dominate over tube orbits when the recoil velocity exceeds the velocity dispersion of the core, whereas tube orbits dominate for the lowest recoil kicks. A change in orbital structure is reflected in the anisotropy parameter, with a central tangential bias present only for recoil velocities less than the local stellar velocity dispersion. Emulating current integral field unit observations of the stellar line-of-sight velocity distribution, we uncover a distinct signature in the Gauss-Hermite symmetric deviation coefficient h_4 that uniquely constrains the core size due to binary scouring. This signature is insensitive to the later evolution of the stellar mass distribution due to SMBH recoil. Our results provide a novel method to estimate the SMBH recoil magnitude from observations of local elliptical galaxies, and implies these galaxies primarily experienced recoil velocities less than the stellar velocity dispersion of the core.

In this study of the `Resolving supermAssive Black hole Binaries In galacTic hydrodynamical Simulations' (RABBITS) series, we focus on the hardening and coalescing process of supermassive black hole (SMBH) binaries in galaxy mergers. For simulations including different galaxy formation processes (i.e. gas cooling, star formation, SMBH accretion, stellar and AGN feedback), we systematically control the effect of stochastic eccentricity by fixing it to similar values during the SMBH hardening phase. We find a strong correlation between the SMBH merger time-scales and the presence of nuclear star formation. Throughout the galaxy merging process, gas condenses at the centre due to cooling and tidal torques, leading to nuclear star formation. These recently formed stars, which inherit low angular momenta from the gas, contribute to the loss cone and assist in the SMBH hardening via three-body interactions. Compared to non-radiative hydrodynamical runs, the SMBH merger time-scales measured from the runs including cooling, stellar and SMBH physical processes tend to be shortened by a factor of {sim}1.7. After fixing the eccentricity to the range of e sim 0.6--0.8 during the hardening phase, the simulations with AGN feedback reveal merger time-scales of {sim} 100--500 Myr for disc mergers and {sim} 1--2 Gyr for elliptical mergers. With a semi-analytical approach, we find that the torque interaction between the binary and its circumbinary disc has minimal impact on the shrinking of the binary orbit in our retrograde galaxy merger. Our results are useful in improving the modelling of SMBH merger time-scales and gravitational wave event rates.

The upcoming space-based gravitational wave (GW) observatory, LISA, is expected to detect GW signals from supermassive black hole (SMBH) mergers occurring at high redshifts. However, understanding the origin and growth of SMBHs in the early Universe remains an open problem in astrophysics. In this work, we utilize the First Light And Reionization Epoch Simulations (FLARES), a suite of cosmological hydrodynamical zoom-in simulations, to study SMBH mergers at 5 lesssim z lesssim 10 across a wide range of environments. Most mergers in FLARES involve secondary SMBHs near the seed mass (m_{seed} approx 1.5 times 10^{5} M_{odot}) while primary SMBHs span up to 10^{9} M_{odot}, resulting in mass ratios from q sim 10^{-4} to 1, with a peak at q sim 1. The number of mergers increases rapidly towards lower redshifts, and the comoving total number density scales with overdensity as n_{merger} = 10^{-3.80} (1 + delta)^{4.56}. Denser regions host more massive mergers, with higher merger redshifts and lower mass ratios. Within the FLARES redshift range, LISA is expected to detect mergers with 10^{5} lesssim M_{tot} / M_{odot} lesssim 10^{8} and q gtrsim 10^{-2}, corresponding to a detection rate of 0.030 yr^{-1} for events with signal-to-noise ratio SNR geq 10. Our study demonstrates the sensitivity of GW predictions at high redshifts to SMBH seed models and merger time delays, highlighting the need for improved modeling in future cosmological simulations to maximize LISA's scientific return.

We introduce a new model for the accretion and feedback of supermassive black hole (SMBH) binaries to the KETJU code, which enables us to resolve the evolution of SMBH binaries down to separations of tens of Schwarzschild radii in gas-rich galaxy mergers. Our subgrid binary accretion model extends the widely used Bondi--Hoyle--Lyttleton accretion into the binary phase and incorporates preferential mass accretion onto the secondary SMBH, which is motivated by results from small-scale hydrodynamical circumbinary disc simulations. We perform idealised gas-rich disc galaxy merger simulations using pure thermal or pure kinetic active galactic nuclei (AGN) feedback. Our binary accretion model provides more physically motivated SMBH mass ratios, which are one of the key parameters for computing gravitational wave (GW) induced recoil velocities. The merger time-scales of our simulated SMBH binaries are in the range t_{rm merge}{sim} 10--400 Myr. Prograde in-plane equal-mass galaxy mergers lead to the shortest merger time-scales, as they experience the strongest starbursts, with the ensuing high stellar density resulting in a rapid SMBH coalescence. Compared to the thermal AGN feedback, the kinetic AGN feedback predicts longer merger time-scales and results in more core-like stellar profiles, as it is more effective in removing gas from the galaxy centre and quenching star formation. This suggests that the AGN feedback implementation plays a critical role in modelling SMBH coalescences. Our model will be useful for improving the modelling of SMBH mergers in gas-rich galaxies, the prime targets for the upcoming LISA GW observatory.

In this study of the `Resolving supermAssive Black hole Binaries In galacTic hydrodynamical Simulations' (RABBITS) series, we investigate the orbital evolution of supermassive black holes (SMBHs) during galaxy mergers. We simulate both disc and elliptical galaxy mergers using the KETJU code, which can simultaneously follow galaxy (hydro-)dynamics and small-scale SMBH dynamics with post-Newtonian corrections. With our SMBH binary subgrid model, we show how active galactic nuclei (AGNs) feedback affects galaxy properties and SMBH coalescence. We find that simulations without AGN feedback exhibit excessive star formation, resulting in merger remnants that deviate from observed properties. Kinetic AGN feedback proves more effective than thermal AGN feedback in expelling gas from the centre and quenching star formation. The different central galaxy properties, which are a result of distinct AGN feedback models, lead to varying rates of SMBH orbital decay. In the dynamical friction phase, galaxies with higher star formation and higher SMBH masses possess denser centres, become more resistant to tidal stripping, experience greater dynamical friction, and consequently form SMBH binaries earlier. As AGN feedback reduces gas densities in the centres, dynamical friction by stars dominates over gas. In the SMBH hardening phase, compared to elliptical mergers, disc mergers exhibit higher central densities of newly formed stars, resulting in accelerated SMBH hardening and shorter merger time-scales (i.e. lesssim 500 Myr versus gtrsim 1 Gyr). Our findings highlight the importance of AGN feedback and its numerical implementation in understanding the SMBH coalescing process, a key focus for low-frequency gravitational wave observatories.

JWST has detected many overmassive galactic systems at z > 4, where the mass of the black hole, M_bullet, is 10-100 times larger than expected from local relations, given the host's stellar mass, M_star. This Letter presents a model to describe these overmassive systems in the high-z Universe. We suggest that the black hole mass is the main driver of high-z star formation quenching. SMBHs globally impact their high-z galaxies because their hosts are physically small, and the black holes have duty cycles close to unity at z > 4. In this regime, we assume that black hole mass growth is regulated by the quasar's output, while stellar mass growth is quenched by it and uncorrelated to the global properties of the host halo. We find that the ratio M_bullet/M_star controls the average star formation efficiency: if M_bullet/M_star > 8times 10^{18} (n Lambda/f_{edd})[(Omega_b M_h)/(Omega_m M_star) - 1], then the galaxy is unable to form stars efficiently. Once this ratio exceeds the threshold, a runaway process brings the originally overmassive system towards the local M_bullet - M_star relation. Furthermore, the M_bullet - M_star relation evolves with redshift as propto (1+z)^{5/2}. At z sim 5, we find an overmassive factor of sim 55, in excellent agreement with current JWST data and the high-z relation inferred from those. Extending the black hole horizon farther in redshift and lower in mass will test this model and improve our understanding of the early co-evolution of black holes and galaxies.

We present here self-consistent zoom-in simulations of massive galaxies forming in a full cosmological setting. The simulations are run with an updated version of the KETJU code, which is able to resolve the gravitational dynamics of their supermassive black holes, while simultaneously modelling the large-scale astrophysical processes in the surrounding galaxies, such as gas cooling, star formation and stellar and AGN feedback. The KETJU code is able to accurately model the complex behaviour of multiple SMBHs, including dynamical friction, stellar scattering and gravitational wave emission, and also to resolve Lidov-Kozai oscillations that naturally occur in hierarchical triplet SMBH systems. In general most of the SMBH binaries form at moderately high eccentricities, with typical values in the range of e =0.6-0.95, meaning that the circular binary models that are commonly used in the literature are insufficient for capturing the typical binary evolution.

We present the new public version of the KETJU supermassive black hole (SMBH) dynamics module, as implemented into GADGET-4. KETJU adds a small region around each SMBH where the dynamics of the SMBHs and stellar particles are integrated using an algorithmically regularised integrator instead of the leapfrog integrator with gravitational softening used by GADGET-4. This enables modelling SMBHs as point particles even during close interactions with stellar particles or other SMBHs, effectively removing the spatial resolution limitation caused by gravitational softening. KETJU also includes post-Newtonian corrections, which allows following the dynamics of SMBH binaries to sub-parsec scales and down to tens of Schwarzschild radii. Systems with multiple SMBHs are also supported, with the code also including the leading non-linear cross terms that appear in the post-Newtonian equations for such systems. We present tests of the code showing that it correctly captures, at sufficient mass resolution, the sinking driven by dynamical friction and binary hardening driven by stellar scattering. We also present an example application demonstrating how the code can be applied to study the dynamics of SMBHs in mergers of multiple galaxies and the effect they have on the properties of the surrounding galaxy. We expect that the presented KETJU SMBH dynamics module can also be straightforwardly incorporated into other codes similar to GADGET-4, which would allow coupling small-scale SMBH dynamics to the rich variety of galactic physics models that exist in the literature.