Daily Papers

The study proposes a quote-driven predictive automated market maker (AMM) platform with on-chain custody and settlement functions, alongside off-chain predictive reinforcement learning capabilities to improve liquidity provision of real-world AMMs. The proposed AMM architecture is an augmentation to the Uniswap V3, a cryptocurrency AMM protocol, by utilizing a novel market equilibrium pricing for reduced divergence and slippage loss. Further, the proposed architecture involves a predictive AMM capability, utilizing a deep hybrid Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Q-learning reinforcement learning framework that looks to improve market efficiency through better forecasts of liquidity concentration ranges, so liquidity starts moving to expected concentration ranges, prior to asset price movement, so that liquidity utilization is improved. The augmented protocol framework is expected have practical real-world implications, by (i) reducing divergence loss for liquidity providers, (ii) reducing slippage for crypto-asset traders, while (iii) improving capital efficiency for liquidity provision for the AMM protocol. To our best knowledge, there are no known protocol or literature that are proposing similar deep learning-augmented AMM that achieves similar capital efficiency and loss minimization objectives for practical real-world applications.

Pretrained Language Models (PLMs) harbor inherent social biases that can result in harmful real-world implications. Such social biases are measured through the probability values that PLMs output for different social groups and attributes appearing in a set of test sentences. However, bias testing is currently cumbersome since the test sentences are generated either from a limited set of manual templates or need expensive crowd-sourcing. We instead propose using ChatGPT for the controllable generation of test sentences, given any arbitrary user-specified combination of social groups and attributes appearing in the test sentences. When compared to template-based methods, our approach using ChatGPT for test sentence generation is superior in detecting social bias, especially in challenging settings such as intersectional biases. We present an open-source comprehensive bias testing framework (BiasTestGPT), hosted on HuggingFace, that can be plugged into any open-source PLM for bias testing. User testing with domain experts from various fields has shown their interest in being able to test modern AI for social biases. Our tool has significantly improved their awareness of such biases in PLMs, proving to be learnable and user-friendly. We thus enable seamless open-ended social bias testing of PLMs by domain experts through an automatic large-scale generation of diverse test sentences for any combination of social categories and attributes.

This comprehensive survey explored the evolving landscape of generative Artificial Intelligence (AI), with a specific focus on the transformative impacts of Mixture of Experts (MoE), multimodal learning, and the speculated advancements towards Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). It critically examined the current state and future trajectory of generative Artificial Intelligence (AI), exploring how innovations like Google's Gemini and the anticipated OpenAI Q* project are reshaping research priorities and applications across various domains, including an impact analysis on the generative AI research taxonomy. It assessed the computational challenges, scalability, and real-world implications of these technologies while highlighting their potential in driving significant progress in fields like healthcare, finance, and education. It also addressed the emerging academic challenges posed by the proliferation of both AI-themed and AI-generated preprints, examining their impact on the peer-review process and scholarly communication. The study highlighted the importance of incorporating ethical and human-centric methods in AI development, ensuring alignment with societal norms and welfare, and outlined a strategy for future AI research that focuses on a balanced and conscientious use of MoE, multimodality, and AGI in generative AI.

Computer-use agent (CUA) frameworks, powered by large language models (LLMs) or multimodal LLMs (MLLMs), are rapidly maturing as assistants that can perceive context, reason, and act directly within software environments. Among their most critical applications is operating system (OS) control. As CUAs in the OS domain become increasingly embedded in daily operations, it is imperative to examine their real-world security implications, specifically whether CUAs can be misused to perform realistic, security-relevant attacks. Existing works exhibit four major limitations: Missing attacker-knowledge model on tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTP), Incomplete coverage for end-to-end kill chains, unrealistic environment without multi-host and encrypted user credentials, and unreliable judgment dependent on LLM-as-a-Judge. To address these gaps, we propose AdvCUA, the first benchmark aligned with real-world TTPs in MITRE ATT&CK Enterprise Matrix, which comprises 140 tasks, including 40 direct malicious tasks, 74 TTP-based malicious tasks, and 26 end-to-end kill chains, systematically evaluates CUAs under a realistic enterprise OS security threat in a multi-host environment sandbox by hard-coded evaluation. We evaluate the existing five mainstream CUAs, including ReAct, AutoGPT, Gemini CLI, Cursor CLI, and Cursor IDE based on 8 foundation LLMs. The results demonstrate that current frontier CUAs do not adequately cover OS security-centric threats. These capabilities of CUAs reduce dependence on custom malware and deep domain expertise, enabling even inexperienced attackers to mount complex enterprise intrusions, which raises social concern about the responsibility and security of CUAs.

We interact with computers on an everyday basis, be it in everyday life or work, and many aspects of work can be done entirely with access to a computer and the Internet. At the same time, thanks to improvements in large language models (LLMs), there has also been a rapid development in AI agents that interact with and affect change in their surrounding environments. But how performant are AI agents at helping to accelerate or even autonomously perform work-related tasks? The answer to this question has important implications for both industry looking to adopt AI into their workflows, and for economic policy to understand the effects that adoption of AI may have on the labor market. To measure the progress of these LLM agents' performance on performing real-world professional tasks, in this paper, we introduce TheAgentCompany, an extensible benchmark for evaluating AI agents that interact with the world in similar ways to those of a digital worker: by browsing the Web, writing code, running programs, and communicating with other coworkers. We build a self-contained environment with internal web sites and data that mimics a small software company environment, and create a variety of tasks that may be performed by workers in such a company. We test baseline agents powered by both closed API-based and open-weights language models (LMs), and find that with the most competitive agent, 24% of the tasks can be completed autonomously. This paints a nuanced picture on task automation with LM agents -- in a setting simulating a real workplace, a good portion of simpler tasks could be solved autonomously, but more difficult long-horizon tasks are still beyond the reach of current systems.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly being integrated into various applications. The functionalities of recent LLMs can be flexibly modulated via natural language prompts. This renders them susceptible to targeted adversarial prompting, e.g., Prompt Injection (PI) attacks enable attackers to override original instructions and employed controls. So far, it was assumed that the user is directly prompting the LLM. But, what if it is not the user prompting? We argue that LLM-Integrated Applications blur the line between data and instructions. We reveal new attack vectors, using Indirect Prompt Injection, that enable adversaries to remotely (without a direct interface) exploit LLM-integrated applications by strategically injecting prompts into data likely to be retrieved. We derive a comprehensive taxonomy from a computer security perspective to systematically investigate impacts and vulnerabilities, including data theft, worming, information ecosystem contamination, and other novel security risks. We demonstrate our attacks' practical viability against both real-world systems, such as Bing's GPT-4 powered Chat and code-completion engines, and synthetic applications built on GPT-4. We show how processing retrieved prompts can act as arbitrary code execution, manipulate the application's functionality, and control how and if other APIs are called. Despite the increasing integration and reliance on LLMs, effective mitigations of these emerging threats are currently lacking. By raising awareness of these vulnerabilities and providing key insights into their implications, we aim to promote the safe and responsible deployment of these powerful models and the development of robust defenses that protect users and systems from potential attacks.

Trust is an important factor in people's interactions with AI systems. However, there is a lack of empirical studies examining how real end-users trust or distrust the AI system they interact with. Most research investigates one aspect of trust in lab settings with hypothetical end-users. In this paper, we provide a holistic and nuanced understanding of trust in AI through a qualitative case study of a real-world computer vision application. We report findings from interviews with 20 end-users of a popular, AI-based bird identification app where we inquired about their trust in the app from many angles. We find participants perceived the app as trustworthy and trusted it, but selectively accepted app outputs after engaging in verification behaviors, and decided against app adoption in certain high-stakes scenarios. We also find domain knowledge and context are important factors for trust-related assessment and decision-making. We discuss the implications of our findings and provide recommendations for future research on trust in AI.

As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains, detecting hallucinated contentx2013text that is not grounded in supporting evidencex2013has become a critical challenge. Existing benchmarks for hallucination detection are often synthetically generated, narrowly focused on extractive question answering, and fail to capture the complexity of real-world scenarios involving multi-document contexts and full-sentence outputs. We introduce the HalluMix Benchmark, a diverse, task-agnostic dataset that includes examples from a range of domains and formats. Using this benchmark, we evaluate seven hallucination detection systemsx2013both open and closed sourcex2013highlighting differences in performance across tasks, document lengths, and input representations. Our analysis highlights substantial performance disparities between short and long contexts, with critical implications for real-world Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) implementations. Quotient Detections achieves the best overall performance, with an accuracy of 0.82 and an F1 score of 0.84.

The widespread application of deep learning has changed the landscape of computation in the data center. In particular, personalized recommendation for content ranking is now largely accomplished leveraging deep neural networks. However, despite the importance of these models and the amount of compute cycles they consume, relatively little research attention has been devoted to systems for recommendation. To facilitate research and to advance the understanding of these workloads, this paper presents a set of real-world, production-scale DNNs for personalized recommendation coupled with relevant performance metrics for evaluation. In addition to releasing a set of open-source workloads, we conduct in-depth analysis that underpins future system design and optimization for at-scale recommendation: Inference latency varies by 60% across three Intel server generations, batching and co-location of inferences can drastically improve latency-bounded throughput, and the diverse composition of recommendation models leads to different optimization strategies.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly essential in processing natural languages, yet their application is frequently compromised by biases and inaccuracies originating in their training data. In this study, we introduce Cross-Care, the first benchmark framework dedicated to assessing biases and real world knowledge in LLMs, specifically focusing on the representation of disease prevalence across diverse demographic groups. We systematically evaluate how demographic biases embedded in pre-training corpora like ThePile influence the outputs of LLMs. We expose and quantify discrepancies by juxtaposing these biases against actual disease prevalences in various U.S. demographic groups. Our results highlight substantial misalignment between LLM representation of disease prevalence and real disease prevalence rates across demographic subgroups, indicating a pronounced risk of bias propagation and a lack of real-world grounding for medical applications of LLMs. Furthermore, we observe that various alignment methods minimally resolve inconsistencies in the models' representation of disease prevalence across different languages. For further exploration and analysis, we make all data and a data visualization tool available at: www.crosscare.net.

The principle of independent causal mechanisms (ICM) states that generative processes of real world data consist of independent modules which do not influence or inform each other. While this idea has led to fruitful developments in the field of causal inference, it is not widely-known in the NLP community. In this work, we argue that the causal direction of the data collection process bears nontrivial implications that can explain a number of published NLP findings, such as differences in semi-supervised learning (SSL) and domain adaptation (DA) performance across different settings. We categorize common NLP tasks according to their causal direction and empirically assay the validity of the ICM principle for text data using minimum description length. We conduct an extensive meta-analysis of over 100 published SSL and 30 DA studies, and find that the results are consistent with our expectations based on causal insights. This work presents the first attempt to analyze the ICM principle in NLP, and provides constructive suggestions for future modeling choices. Code available at https://github.com/zhijing-jin/icm4nlp

Given the rapid adoption of generative AI and its potential to impact a wide range of tasks, understanding the effects of AI on the economy is one of society's most important questions. In this work, we take a step toward that goal by analyzing the work activities people do with AI, how successfully and broadly those activities are done, and combine that with data on what occupations do those activities. We analyze a dataset of 200k anonymized and privacy-scrubbed conversations between users and Microsoft Bing Copilot, a publicly available generative AI system. We find the most common work activities people seek AI assistance for involve gathering information and writing, while the most common activities that AI itself is performing are providing information and assistance, writing, teaching, and advising. Combining these activity classifications with measurements of task success and scope of impact, we compute an AI applicability score for each occupation. We find the highest AI applicability scores for knowledge work occupation groups such as computer and mathematical, and office and administrative support, as well as occupations such as sales whose work activities involve providing and communicating information. Additionally, we characterize the types of work activities performed most successfully, how wage and education correlate with AI applicability, and how real-world usage compares to predictions of occupational AI impact.

This review presents a comprehensive analysis of two emerging paradigms in AI-assisted software development: vibe coding and agentic coding. While both leverage large language models (LLMs), they differ fundamentally in autonomy, architectural design, and the role of the developer. Vibe coding emphasizes intuitive, human-in-the-loop interaction through prompt-based, conversational workflows that support ideation, experimentation, and creative exploration. In contrast, agentic coding enables autonomous software development through goal-driven agents capable of planning, executing, testing, and iterating tasks with minimal human intervention. We propose a detailed taxonomy spanning conceptual foundations, execution models, feedback loops, safety mechanisms, debugging strategies, and real-world tool ecosystems. Through comparative workflow analysis and 20 detailed use cases, we illustrate how vibe systems thrive in early-stage prototyping and education, while agentic systems excel in enterprise-grade automation, codebase refactoring, and CI/CD integration. We further examine emerging trends in hybrid architectures, where natural language interfaces are coupled with autonomous execution pipelines. Finally, we articulate a future roadmap for agentic AI, outlining the infrastructure needed for trustworthy, explainable, and collaborative systems. Our findings suggest that successful AI software engineering will rely not on choosing one paradigm, but on harmonizing their strengths within a unified, human-centered development lifecycle.

Machine learning (ML) has become a ubiquitous tool across various domains of data mining and big data analysis. The efficacy of ML models depends heavily on high-quality datasets, which are often complicated by the presence of missing values. Consequently, the performance and generalization of ML models are at risk in the face of such datasets. This paper aims to examine the nuanced impact of missing values on ML workflows, including their types, causes, and consequences. Our analysis focuses on the challenges posed by missing values, including biased inferences, reduced predictive power, and increased computational burdens. The paper further explores strategies for handling missing values, including imputation techniques and removal strategies, and investigates how missing values affect model evaluation metrics and introduces complexities in cross-validation and model selection. The study employs case studies and real-world examples to illustrate the practical implications of addressing missing values. Finally, the discussion extends to future research directions, emphasizing the need for handling missing values ethically and transparently. The primary goal of this paper is to provide insights into the pervasive impact of missing values on ML models and guide practitioners toward effective strategies for achieving robust and reliable model outcomes.

Implicit bias refers to automatic or spontaneous mental processes that shape perceptions, judgments, and behaviors. Previous research examining `implicit bias' in large language models (LLMs) has often approached the phenomenon differently than how it is studied in humans by focusing primarily on model outputs rather than on model processing. To examine model processing, we present a method called the Reasoning Model Implicit Association Test (RM-IAT) for studying implicit bias-like patterns in reasoning models: LLMs that employ step-by-step reasoning to solve complex tasks. Using this method, we find that reasoning models require more tokens when processing association-incompatible information compared to association-compatible information. These findings suggest AI systems harbor patterns in processing information that are analogous to human implicit bias. We consider the implications of these implicit bias-like patterns for their deployment in real-world applications.

In this paper, we introduce Concise Chain-of-Thought (CCoT) prompting. We compared standard CoT and CCoT prompts to see how conciseness impacts response length and correct-answer accuracy. We evaluated this using GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 with a multiple-choice question-and-answer (MCQA) benchmark. CCoT reduced average response length by 48.70% for both GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 while having a negligible impact on problem-solving performance. However, on math problems, GPT-3.5 with CCoT incurs a performance penalty of 27.69%. Overall, CCoT leads to an average per-token cost reduction of 22.67%. These results have practical implications for AI systems engineers using LLMs to solve real-world problems with CoT prompt-engineering techniques. In addition, these results provide more general insight for AI researchers studying the emergent behavior of step-by-step reasoning in LLMs.

We explore whether Large Language Models (LLMs) are capable of logical reasoning with distorted facts, which we call Deduction under Perturbed Evidence (DUPE). DUPE presents a unique challenge to LLMs since they typically rely on their parameters, which encode mostly accurate information, to reason and make inferences. However, in DUPE, LLMs must reason over manipulated or falsified evidence present in their prompts, which can result in false conclusions that are valid only under the manipulated evidence. Our goal with DUPE is to determine whether LLMs can arrive at these false conclusions and identify whether the dominant factor influencing the deduction process is the encoded data in the parameters or the manipulated evidence in the prompts. To evaluate the DUPE capabilities of LLMs, we create a DUPEd version of the StrategyQA dataset, where facts are manipulated to reverse the answer to the question. Our findings show that even the most advanced GPT models struggle to reason on manipulated facts - showcasing poor DUPE skills - with accuracy dropping by 45% compared to the original dataset. We also investigate prompt settings inspired from student simulation models, which mitigate the accuracy drop to some extent. Our findings have practical implications for understanding the performance of LLMs in real-world applications such as student simulation models that involve reasoning over inaccurate information.

Large Language Models(LLMs) have revolutionized various applications in natural language processing (NLP) by providing unprecedented text generation, translation, and comprehension capabilities. However, their widespread deployment has brought to light significant concerns regarding biases embedded within these models. This paper presents a comprehensive survey of biases in LLMs, aiming to provide an extensive review of the types, sources, impacts, and mitigation strategies related to these biases. We systematically categorize biases into several dimensions. Our survey synthesizes current research findings and discusses the implications of biases in real-world applications. Additionally, we critically assess existing bias mitigation techniques and propose future research directions to enhance fairness and equity in LLMs. This survey serves as a foundational resource for researchers, practitioners, and policymakers concerned with addressing and understanding biases in LLMs.

The increasing use of Large Language Models (LLMs) in software development has garnered significant attention from researchers assessing the quality of the code they generate. However, much of the research focuses on controlled datasets such as HumanEval, which fail to adequately represent how developers actually utilize LLMs' code generation capabilities or clarify the characteristics of LLM-generated code in real-world development scenarios. To bridge this gap, our study investigates the characteristics of LLM-generated code and its corresponding projects hosted on GitHub. Our findings reveal several key insights: (1) ChatGPT and Copilot are the most frequently utilized for generating code on GitHub. In contrast, there is very little code generated by other LLMs on GitHub. (2) Projects containing ChatGPT/Copilot-generated code are often small and less known, led by individuals or small teams. Despite this, most projects are continuously evolving and improving. (3) ChatGPT/Copilot is mainly utilized for generating Python, Java, and TypeScript scripts for data processing and transformation. C/C++ and JavaScript code generation focuses on algorithm and data structure implementation and user interface code. Most ChatGPT/Copilot-generated code snippets are relatively short and exhibit low complexity. (4) Compared to human-written code, ChatGPT/Copilot-generated code exists in a small proportion of projects and generally undergoes fewer modifications. Additionally, modifications due to bugs are even fewer, ranging from just 3% to 8% across different languages. (5) Most comments on ChatGPT/Copilot-generated code lack detailed information, often only stating the code's origin without mentioning prompts, human modifications, or testing status. Based on these findings, we discuss the implications for researchers and practitioners.

While it has long been empirically observed that adversarial robustness may be at odds with standard accuracy and may have further disparate impacts on different classes, it remains an open question to what extent such observations hold and how the class imbalance plays a role within. In this paper, we attempt to understand this question of accuracy disparity by taking a closer look at linear classifiers under a Gaussian mixture model. We decompose the impact of adversarial robustness into two parts: an inherent effect that will degrade the standard accuracy on all classes due to the robustness constraint, and the other caused by the class imbalance ratio, which will increase the accuracy disparity compared to standard training. Furthermore, we also show that such effects extend beyond the Gaussian mixture model, by generalizing our data model to the general family of stable distributions. More specifically, we demonstrate that while the constraint of adversarial robustness consistently degrades the standard accuracy in the balanced class setting, the class imbalance ratio plays a fundamentally different role in accuracy disparity compared to the Gaussian case, due to the heavy tail of the stable distribution. We additionally perform experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets to corroborate our theoretical findings. Our empirical results also suggest that the implications may extend to nonlinear models over real-world datasets. Our code is publicly available on GitHub at https://github.com/Accuracy-Disparity/AT-on-AD.

Multiple-choice exam questions with "None of the above" (NA) options have been extensively studied in educational testing, in which existing research suggests that they better assess true knowledge. However, their impact on Large Language Models (LLMs) evaluation remains underexplored. Through systematic experiments with 28 LLMs on the MMLU benchmark, we examine how NA options affect model performance and confidence calibration. Our analysis reveals that NA options, when used as the correct answer, lead to a consistent 30-50\% performance drop across models regardless of scale--suggesting that LLMs lack the meta-cognitive ability to systematically evaluate and reject all given options when none are correct. This degradation shows strong domain dependence, with minimal impact on mathematical reasoning (14.6\% drop) but severe effects on tasks requiring uncertainty handling like business ethics (48.1\% drop). Our results highlight important implications for benchmark design and raise questions about LLMs' ability to handle uncertainty in real-world applications.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable capabilities in various domains, yet their economic impact has been limited by challenges in tool use and function calling. This paper introduces ThorV2, a novel architecture that significantly enhances LLMs' function calling abilities. We develop a comprehensive benchmark focused on HubSpot CRM operations to evaluate ThorV2 against leading models from OpenAI and Anthropic. Our results demonstrate that ThorV2 outperforms existing models in accuracy, reliability, latency, and cost efficiency for both single and multi-API calling tasks. We also show that ThorV2 is far more reliable and scales better to multistep tasks compared to traditional models. Our work offers the tantalizing possibility of more accurate function-calling compared to today's best-performing models using significantly smaller LLMs. These advancements have significant implications for the development of more capable AI assistants and the broader application of LLMs in real-world scenarios.

Large Language Models (LLMs) show significant potential in economic and strategic interactions, where communication via natural language is often prevalent. This raises key questions: Do LLMs behave rationally? Can they mimic human behavior? Do they tend to reach an efficient and fair outcome? What is the role of natural language in the strategic interaction? How do characteristics of the economic environment influence these dynamics? These questions become crucial concerning the economic and societal implications of integrating LLM-based agents into real-world data-driven systems, such as online retail platforms and recommender systems. While the ML community has been exploring the potential of LLMs in such multi-agent setups, varying assumptions, design choices and evaluation criteria across studies make it difficult to draw robust and meaningful conclusions. To address this, we introduce a benchmark for standardizing research on two-player, sequential, language-based games. Inspired by the economic literature, we define three base families of games with consistent parameterization, degrees of freedom and economic measures to evaluate agents' performance (self-gain), as well as the game outcome (efficiency and fairness). We develop an open-source framework for interaction simulation and analysis, and utilize it to collect a dataset of LLM vs. LLM interactions across numerous game configurations and an additional dataset of human vs. LLM interactions. Through extensive experimentation, we demonstrate how our framework and dataset can be used to: (i) compare the behavior of LLM-based agents to human players in various economic contexts; (ii) evaluate agents in both individual and collective performance measures; and (iii) quantify the effect of the economic characteristics of the environments on the behavior of agents.

This study explores Large Language Models (LLMs) as autonomous agents for real-world tasks, including freelance software development. This work presents a new benchmark that evaluates LLMs on freelance programming and data analysis tasks derived from economic data. We construct the benchmark using synthetic tasks created from a Kaggle Freelancer dataset of job postings, with all job prices standardized to USD (median fixed-project price around 250, and an average of 306). Each task is accompanied by structured input-output test cases and an estimated price tag, enabling automated correctness checking and a monetary performance valuation. This approach is inspired by OpenAI's recent SWE-Lancer benchmark (1,400 real Upwork tasks worth 1M total). Still, our framework simplifies evaluation using programmatically testable tasks and predicted price values, making it highly scalable and repeatable. On this benchmark, we evaluate four modern LLMs - Claude 3.5 Haiku, GPT-4o-mini, Qwen 2.5, and Mistral. We report each model's accuracy (task success rate and test-case pass rate) and the total "freelance earnings" it achieves (sum of prices of solved tasks). Our results show that Claude 3.5 Haiku performs best, earning approximately 1.52 million USD, followed closely by GPT-4o-mini at 1.49 million, then Qwen 2.5 (1.33M) and Mistral ($0.70M). We analyze the distribution of errors per task and observe that the strongest models solve the most tasks and rarely fail completely on any project. We discuss the implications of these results for the feasibility of AI as a freelance developer, the advantages and limitations of our automated benchmark approach, and the gap between performance on structured tasks versus the true complexity of real-world freelance jobs.

We study the implications of the modeling choice to use a graph, instead of a hypergraph, to represent real-world interconnected systems whose constituent relationships are of higher order by nature. Such a modeling choice typically involves an underlying projection process that maps the original hypergraph onto a graph, and is common in graph-based analysis. While hypergraph projection can potentially lead to loss of higher-order relations, there exists very limited studies on the consequences of doing so, as well as its remediation. This work fills this gap by doing two things: (1) we develop analysis based on graph and set theory, showing two ubiquitous patterns of hyperedges that are root to structural information loss in all hypergraph projections; we also quantify the combinatorial impossibility of recovering the lost higher-order structures if no extra help is provided; (2) we still seek to recover the lost higher-order structures in hypergraph projection, and in light of (1)'s findings we propose to relax the problem into a learning-based setting. Under this setting, we develop a learning-based hypergraph reconstruction method based on an important statistic of hyperedge distributions that we find. Our reconstruction method is evaluated on 8 real-world datasets under different settings, and exhibits consistently good performance. We also demonstrate benefits of the reconstructed hypergraphs via use cases of protein rankings and link predictions.

A new approach to linguistic watermarking of language models is presented in which information is imperceptibly inserted into the output text while preserving its readability and original meaning. A cross-attention mechanism is used to embed watermarks in the text during inference. Two methods using cross-attention are presented that minimize the effect of watermarking on the performance of a pretrained model. Exploration of different training strategies for optimizing the watermarking and of the challenges and implications of applying this approach in real-world scenarios clarified the tradeoff between watermark robustness and text quality. Watermark selection substantially affects the generated output for high entropy sentences. This proactive watermarking approach has potential application in future model development.

Diffusion models excel at generating high-quality, diverse samples, yet they risk memorizing training data when overfit to the training objective. We analyze the distinctions between memorization and generalization in diffusion models through the lens of representation learning. By investigating a two-layer ReLU denoising autoencoder (DAE), we prove that (i) memorization corresponds to the model storing raw training samples in the learned weights for encoding and decoding, yielding localized "spiky" representations, whereas (ii) generalization arises when the model captures local data statistics, producing "balanced" representations. Furthermore, we validate these theoretical findings on real-world unconditional and text-to-image diffusion models, demonstrating that the same representation structures emerge in deep generative models with significant practical implications. Building on these insights, we propose a representation-based method for detecting memorization and a training-free editing technique that allows precise control via representation steering. Together, our results highlight that learning good representations is central to novel and meaningful generative modeling.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable performance in various natural language processing tasks but face challenges in mathematical reasoning, where complex problem-solving requires both linguistic understanding and mathematical reasoning skills. Existing approaches to address this challenge often rely on ensemble methods and suffer from the problem of data scarcity in target domains. In this work, we present a novel method to enhance LLMs' capabilities in mathematical reasoning tasks. Motivated by the need to bridge this gap, our approach incorporates a question paraphrase strategy, which aims at diversifying the linguistic forms of mathematical questions to improve generalization. Additionally, specialized training objectives are employed to guide the model's learning process, focusing on enhancing its understanding of mathematical concepts and reasoning processes. We conduct experiments on four datasets using different LLMs, and demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in improving LLMs' performance on mathematical reasoning tasks. Our findings underscore the significance of our methodology in the advancement of large language models and its potential implications for real-world applications that require mathematical reasoning abilities.

Empirical methods in geoparsing have thus far lacked a standard evaluation framework describing the task, metrics and data used to compare state-of-the-art systems. Evaluation is further made inconsistent, even unrepresentative of real-world usage by the lack of distinction between the different types of toponyms, which necessitates new guidelines, a consolidation of metrics and a detailed toponym taxonomy with implications for Named Entity Recognition (NER) and beyond. To address these deficiencies, our manuscript introduces a new framework in three parts. Part 1) Task Definition: clarified via corpus linguistic analysis proposing a fine-grained Pragmatic Taxonomy of Toponyms. Part 2) Metrics: discussed and reviewed for a rigorous evaluation including recommendations for NER/Geoparsing practitioners. Part 3) Evaluation Data: shared via a new dataset called GeoWebNews to provide test/train examples and enable immediate use of our contributions. In addition to fine-grained Geotagging and Toponym Resolution (Geocoding), this dataset is also suitable for prototyping and evaluating machine learning NLP models.

Foundation models (FMs) are increasingly used to bridge language and action in embodied agents, yet the operational characteristics of different FM integration strategies remain under-explored -- particularly for complex instruction following and versatile action generation in changing environments. This paper examines three paradigms for building robotic systems: end-to-end vision-language-action (VLA) models that implicitly integrate perception and planning, and modular pipelines incorporating either vision-language models (VLMs) or multimodal large language models (LLMs). We evaluate these paradigms through two focused case studies: a complex instruction grounding task assessing fine-grained instruction understanding and cross-modal disambiguation, and an object manipulation task targeting skill transfer via VLA finetuning. Our experiments in zero-shot and few-shot settings reveal trade-offs in generalization and data efficiency. By exploring performance limits, we distill design implications for developing language-driven physical agents and outline emerging challenges and opportunities for FM-powered robotics in real-world conditions.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have showcased remarkable capabilities across various domains. Accompanying the evolving capabilities and expanding deployment scenarios of LLMs, their deployment challenges escalate due to their sheer scale and the advanced yet complex activation designs prevalent in notable model series, such as Llama, Gemma, and Mistral. These challenges have become particularly pronounced in resource-constrained deployment scenarios, where mitigating inference efficiency bottlenecks is imperative. Among various recent efforts, activation approximation has emerged as a promising avenue for pursuing inference efficiency, sometimes considered indispensable in applications such as private inference. Despite achieving substantial speedups with minimal impact on utility, even appearing sound and practical for real-world deployment, the safety implications of activation approximations remain unclear. In this work, we fill this critical gap in LLM safety by conducting the first systematic safety evaluation of activation approximations. Our safety vetting spans seven sota techniques across three popular categories, revealing consistent safety degradation across ten safety-aligned LLMs.

It is almost always easier to find an accurate-but-complex model than an accurate-yet-simple model. Finding optimal, sparse, accurate models of various forms (linear models with integer coefficients, decision sets, rule lists, decision trees) is generally NP-hard. We often do not know whether the search for a simpler model will be worthwhile, and thus we do not go to the trouble of searching for one. In this work, we ask an important practical question: can accurate-yet-simple models be proven to exist, or shown likely to exist, before explicitly searching for them? We hypothesize that there is an important reason that simple-yet-accurate models often do exist. This hypothesis is that the size of the Rashomon set is often large, where the Rashomon set is the set of almost-equally-accurate models from a function class. If the Rashomon set is large, it contains numerous accurate models, and perhaps at least one of them is the simple model we desire. In this work, we formally present the Rashomon ratio as a new gauge of simplicity for a learning problem, depending on a function class and a data set. The Rashomon ratio is the ratio of the volume of the set of accurate models to the volume of the hypothesis space, and it is different from standard complexity measures from statistical learning theory. Insight from studying the Rashomon ratio provides an easy way to check whether a simpler model might exist for a problem before finding it, namely whether several different machine learning methods achieve similar performance on the data. In that sense, the Rashomon ratio is a powerful tool for understanding why and when an accurate-yet-simple model might exist. If, as we hypothesize in this work, many real-world data sets admit large Rashomon sets, the implications are vast: it means that simple or interpretable models may often be used for high-stakes decisions without losing accuracy.

This paper explores the task of detecting images generated by text-to-image diffusion models. To evaluate this, we consider images generated from captions in the MSCOCO and Wikimedia datasets using two state-of-the-art models: Stable Diffusion and GLIDE. Our experiments show that it is possible to detect the generated images using simple Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLPs), starting from features extracted by CLIP, or traditional Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs). We also observe that models trained on images generated by Stable Diffusion can detect images generated by GLIDE relatively well, however, the reverse is not true. Lastly, we find that incorporating the associated textual information with the images rarely leads to significant improvement in detection results but that the type of subject depicted in the image can have a significant impact on performance. This work provides insights into the feasibility of detecting generated images, and has implications for security and privacy concerns in real-world applications. The code to reproduce our results is available at: https://github.com/davide-coccomini/Detecting-Images-Generated-by-Diffusers

Foundation Models that are capable of processing and generating multi-modal data have transformed AI's role in medicine. However, a key limitation of their reliability is hallucination, where inaccurate or fabricated information can impact clinical decisions and patient safety. We define medical hallucination as any instance in which a model generates misleading medical content. This paper examines the unique characteristics, causes, and implications of medical hallucinations, with a particular focus on how these errors manifest themselves in real-world clinical scenarios. Our contributions include (1) a taxonomy for understanding and addressing medical hallucinations, (2) benchmarking models using medical hallucination dataset and physician-annotated LLM responses to real medical cases, providing direct insight into the clinical impact of hallucinations, and (3) a multi-national clinician survey on their experiences with medical hallucinations. Our results reveal that inference techniques such as Chain-of-Thought (CoT) and Search Augmented Generation can effectively reduce hallucination rates. However, despite these improvements, non-trivial levels of hallucination persist. These findings underscore the ethical and practical imperative for robust detection and mitigation strategies, establishing a foundation for regulatory policies that prioritize patient safety and maintain clinical integrity as AI becomes more integrated into healthcare. The feedback from clinicians highlights the urgent need for not only technical advances but also for clearer ethical and regulatory guidelines to ensure patient safety. A repository organizing the paper resources, summaries, and additional information is available at https://github.com/mitmedialab/medical hallucination.

Learning generic skills for humanoid robots interacting with 3D scenes by mimicking human data is a key research challenge with significant implications for robotics and real-world applications. However, existing methodologies and benchmarks are constrained by the use of small-scale, manually collected demonstrations, lacking the general dataset and benchmark support necessary to explore scene geometry generalization effectively. To address this gap, we introduce Mimicking-Bench, the first comprehensive benchmark designed for generalizable humanoid-scene interaction learning through mimicking large-scale human animation references. Mimicking-Bench includes six household full-body humanoid-scene interaction tasks, covering 11K diverse object shapes, along with 20K synthetic and 3K real-world human interaction skill references. We construct a complete humanoid skill learning pipeline and benchmark approaches for motion retargeting, motion tracking, imitation learning, and their various combinations. Extensive experiments highlight the value of human mimicking for skill learning, revealing key challenges and research directions.

Pretrained language models sometimes possess knowledge that we do not wish them to, including memorized personal information and knowledge that could be used to harm people. They can also output toxic or harmful text. To mitigate these safety and informational issues, we propose an attack-and-defense framework for studying the task of deleting sensitive information directly from model weights. We study direct edits to model weights because (1) this approach should guarantee that particular deleted information is never extracted by future prompt attacks, and (2) it should protect against whitebox attacks, which is necessary for making claims about safety/privacy in a setting where publicly available model weights could be used to elicit sensitive information. Our threat model assumes that an attack succeeds if the answer to a sensitive question is located among a set of B generated candidates, based on scenarios where the information would be insecure if the answer is among B candidates. Experimentally, we show that even state-of-the-art model editing methods such as ROME struggle to truly delete factual information from models like GPT-J, as our whitebox and blackbox attacks can recover "deleted" information from an edited model 38% of the time. These attacks leverage two key observations: (1) that traces of deleted information can be found in intermediate model hidden states, and (2) that applying an editing method for one question may not delete information across rephrased versions of the question. Finally, we provide new defense methods that protect against some extraction attacks, but we do not find a single universally effective defense method. Our results suggest that truly deleting sensitive information is a tractable but difficult problem, since even relatively low attack success rates have potentially severe societal implications for real-world deployment of language models.

This report presents solutions to three machine learning challenges developed as part of the Rayan AI Contest: compositional image retrieval, zero-shot anomaly detection, and backdoored model detection. In compositional image retrieval, we developed a system that processes visual and textual inputs to retrieve relevant images, achieving 95.38% accuracy and ranking first with a clear margin over the second team. For zero-shot anomaly detection, we designed a model that identifies and localizes anomalies in images without prior exposure to abnormal examples, securing second place with a 73.14% score. In the backdoored model detection task, we proposed a method to detect hidden backdoor triggers in neural networks, reaching an accuracy of 78%, which placed our approach in second place. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods in addressing key challenges related to retrieval, anomaly detection, and model security, with implications for real-world applications in industries such as healthcare, manufacturing, and cybersecurity. Code for all solutions is available online (https://github.com/safinal/rayan-ai-contest-solutions).

Human team tactics emerge from each player's individual perspective and their ability to anticipate, interpret, and adapt to teammates' intentions. While advances in video understanding have improved the modeling of team interactions in sports, most existing work relies on third-person broadcast views and overlooks the synchronous, egocentric nature of multi-agent learning. We introduce X-Ego-CS, a benchmark dataset consisting of 124 hours of gameplay footage from 45 professional-level matches of the popular e-sports game Counter-Strike 2, designed to facilitate research on multi-agent decision-making in complex 3D environments. X-Ego-CS provides cross-egocentric video streams that synchronously capture all players' first-person perspectives along with state-action trajectories. Building on this resource, we propose Cross-Ego Contrastive Learning (CECL), which aligns teammates' egocentric visual streams to foster team-level tactical situational awareness from an individual's perspective. We evaluate CECL on a teammate-opponent location prediction task, demonstrating its effectiveness in enhancing an agent's ability to infer both teammate and opponent positions from a single first-person view using state-of-the-art video encoders. Together, X-Ego-CS and CECL establish a foundation for cross-egocentric multi-agent benchmarking in esports. More broadly, our work positions gameplay understanding as a testbed for multi-agent modeling and tactical learning, with implications for spatiotemporal reasoning and human-AI teaming in both virtual and real-world domains. Code and dataset are available at https://github.com/HATS-ICT/x-ego.

Indirect Prompt Injection attacks exploit the inherent limitation of Large Language Models (LLMs) to distinguish between instructions and data in their inputs. Despite numerous defense proposals, the systematic evaluation against adaptive adversaries remains limited, even when successful attacks can have wide security and privacy implications, and many real-world LLM-based applications remain vulnerable. We present the results of LLMail-Inject, a public challenge simulating a realistic scenario in which participants adaptively attempted to inject malicious instructions into emails in order to trigger unauthorized tool calls in an LLM-based email assistant. The challenge spanned multiple defense strategies, LLM architectures, and retrieval configurations, resulting in a dataset of 208,095 unique attack submissions from 839 participants. We release the challenge code, the full dataset of submissions, and our analysis demonstrating how this data can provide new insights into the instruction-data separation problem. We hope this will serve as a foundation for future research towards practical structural solutions to prompt injection.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly vulnerable to sophisticated multi-turn manipulation attacks, where adversaries strategically build context through seemingly benign conversational turns to circumvent safety measures and elicit harmful or unauthorized responses. These attacks exploit the temporal nature of dialogue to evade single-turn detection methods, representing a critical security vulnerability with significant implications for real-world deployments. This paper introduces the Temporal Context Awareness (TCA) framework, a novel defense mechanism designed to address this challenge by continuously analyzing semantic drift, cross-turn intention consistency and evolving conversational patterns. The TCA framework integrates dynamic context embedding analysis, cross-turn consistency verification, and progressive risk scoring to detect and mitigate manipulation attempts effectively. Preliminary evaluations on simulated adversarial scenarios demonstrate the framework's potential to identify subtle manipulation patterns often missed by traditional detection techniques, offering a much-needed layer of security for conversational AI systems. In addition to outlining the design of TCA , we analyze diverse attack vectors and their progression across multi-turn conversation, providing valuable insights into adversarial tactics and their impact on LLM vulnerabilities. Our findings underscore the pressing need for robust, context-aware defenses in conversational AI systems and highlight TCA framework as a promising direction for securing LLMs while preserving their utility in legitimate applications. We make our implementation available to support further research in this emerging area of AI security.

Watermarking of language model outputs enables statistical detection of model-generated text, which has many applications in the responsible deployment of language models. Existing watermarking strategies operate by altering the decoder of an existing language model, and the ability for a language model to directly learn to generate the watermark would have significant implications for the real-world deployment of watermarks. First, learned watermarks could be used to build open models that naturally generate watermarked text, allowing for open models to benefit from watermarking. Second, if watermarking is used to determine the provenance of generated text, an adversary can hurt the reputation of a victim model by spoofing its watermark and generating damaging watermarked text. To investigate the learnability of watermarks, we propose watermark distillation, which trains a student model to behave like a teacher model that uses decoding-based watermarking. We test our approach on three distinct decoding-based watermarking strategies and various hyperparameter settings, finding that models can learn to generate watermarked text with high detectability. We also find limitations to learnability, including the loss of watermarking capabilities under fine-tuning on normal text and high sample complexity when learning low-distortion watermarks.

Multimodal variational autoencoders (VAEs) have shown promise as efficient generative models for weakly-supervised data. Yet, despite their advantage of weak supervision, they exhibit a gap in generative quality compared to unimodal VAEs, which are completely unsupervised. In an attempt to explain this gap, we uncover a fundamental limitation that applies to a large family of mixture-based multimodal VAEs. We prove that the sub-sampling of modalities enforces an undesirable upper bound on the multimodal ELBO and thereby limits the generative quality of the respective models. Empirically, we showcase the generative quality gap on both synthetic and real data and present the tradeoffs between different variants of multimodal VAEs. We find that none of the existing approaches fulfills all desired criteria of an effective multimodal generative model when applied on more complex datasets than those used in previous benchmarks. In summary, we identify, formalize, and validate fundamental limitations of VAE-based approaches for modeling weakly-supervised data and discuss implications for real-world applications.

Recent breakthroughs in large language models (LLMs) offer unprecedented natural language understanding and generation capabilities. However, existing surveys on LLMs in biomedicine often focus on specific applications or model architectures, lacking a comprehensive analysis that integrates the latest advancements across various biomedical domains. This review, based on an analysis of 484 publications sourced from databases including PubMed, Web of Science, and arXiv, provides an in-depth examination of the current landscape, applications, challenges, and prospects of LLMs in biomedicine, distinguishing itself by focusing on the practical implications of these models in real-world biomedical contexts. Firstly, we explore the capabilities of LLMs in zero-shot learning across a broad spectrum of biomedical tasks, including diagnostic assistance, drug discovery, and personalized medicine, among others, with insights drawn from 137 key studies. Then, we discuss adaptation strategies of LLMs, including fine-tuning methods for both uni-modal and multi-modal LLMs to enhance their performance in specialized biomedical contexts where zero-shot fails to achieve, such as medical question answering and efficient processing of biomedical literature. Finally, we discuss the challenges that LLMs face in the biomedicine domain including data privacy concerns, limited model interpretability, issues with dataset quality, and ethics due to the sensitive nature of biomedical data, the need for highly reliable model outputs, and the ethical implications of deploying AI in healthcare. To address these challenges, we also identify future research directions of LLM in biomedicine including federated learning methods to preserve data privacy and integrating explainable AI methodologies to enhance the transparency of LLMs.

Generalizable Neural Radiance Fields (GNeRF) are one of the most promising real-world solutions for novel view synthesis, thanks to their cross-scene generalization capability and thus the possibility of instant rendering on new scenes. While adversarial robustness is essential for real-world applications, little study has been devoted to understanding its implication on GNeRF. We hypothesize that because GNeRF is implemented by conditioning on the source views from new scenes, which are often acquired from the Internet or third-party providers, there are potential new security concerns regarding its real-world applications. Meanwhile, existing understanding and solutions for neural networks' adversarial robustness may not be applicable to GNeRF, due to its 3D nature and uniquely diverse operations. To this end, we present NeRFool, which to the best of our knowledge is the first work that sets out to understand the adversarial robustness of GNeRF. Specifically, NeRFool unveils the vulnerability patterns and important insights regarding GNeRF's adversarial robustness. Built upon the above insights gained from NeRFool, we further develop NeRFool+, which integrates two techniques capable of effectively attacking GNeRF across a wide range of target views, and provide guidelines for defending against our proposed attacks. We believe that our NeRFool/NeRFool+ lays the initial foundation for future innovations in developing robust real-world GNeRF solutions. Our codes are available at: https://github.com/GATECH-EIC/NeRFool.

The phenomenon of model-wise double descent, where the test error peaks and then reduces as the model size increases, is an interesting topic that has attracted the attention of researchers due to the striking observed gap between theory and practice Belkin2018ReconcilingMM. Additionally, while double descent has been observed in various tasks and architectures, the peak of double descent can sometimes be noticeably absent or diminished, even without explicit regularization, such as weight decay and early stopping. In this paper, we investigate this intriguing phenomenon from the optimization perspective and propose a simple optimization-based explanation for why double descent sometimes occurs weakly or not at all. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to demonstrate that many disparate factors contributing to model-wise double descent (initialization, normalization, batch size, learning rate, optimization algorithm) are unified from the viewpoint of optimization: model-wise double descent is observed if and only if the optimizer can find a sufficiently low-loss minimum. These factors directly affect the condition number of the optimization problem or the optimizer and thus affect the final minimum found by the optimizer, reducing or increasing the height of the double descent peak. We conduct a series of controlled experiments on random feature models and two-layer neural networks under various optimization settings, demonstrating this optimization-based unified view. Our results suggest the following implication: Double descent is unlikely to be a problem for real-world machine learning setups. Additionally, our results help explain the gap between weak double descent peaks in practice and strong peaks observable in carefully designed setups.

Thinking about the future is one of the important activities that people do in daily life. Futurists also pay a lot of effort into figuring out possible scenarios for the future. We argue that the exploration of this direction is still in an early stage in the NLP research. To this end, we propose three argument generation tasks in the financial application scenario. Our experimental results show these tasks are still big challenges for representative generation models. Based on our empirical results, we further point out several unresolved issues and challenges in this research direction.

Comprehensive evaluation of Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) has recently garnered widespread attention in the research community. However, we observe that existing benchmarks present several common barriers that make it difficult to measure the significant challenges that models face in the real world, including: 1) small data scale leads to a large performance variance; 2) reliance on model-based annotations results in restricted data quality; 3) insufficient task difficulty, especially caused by the limited image resolution. To tackle these issues, we introduce MME-RealWorld. Specifically, we collect more than 300K images from public datasets and the Internet, filtering 13,366 high-quality images for annotation. This involves the efforts of professional 25 annotators and 7 experts in MLLMs, contributing to 29,429 question-answer pairs that cover 43 subtasks across 5 real-world scenarios, extremely challenging even for humans. As far as we know, MME-RealWorld is the largest manually annotated benchmark to date, featuring the highest resolution and a targeted focus on real-world applications. We further conduct a thorough evaluation involving 28 prominent MLLMs, such as GPT-4o, Gemini 1.5 Pro, and Claude 3.5 Sonnet. Our results show that even the most advanced models struggle with our benchmarks, where none of them reach 60% accuracy. The challenges of perceiving high-resolution images and understanding complex real-world scenarios remain urgent issues to be addressed. The data and evaluation code are released at https://mme-realworld.github.io/ .

Metaverse is expected to emerge as a new paradigm for the next-generation Internet, providing fully immersive and personalised experiences to socialize, work, and play in self-sustaining and hyper-spatio-temporal virtual world(s). The advancements in different technologies like augmented reality, virtual reality, extended reality (XR), artificial intelligence (AI), and 5G/6G communication will be the key enablers behind the realization of AI-XR metaverse applications. While AI itself has many potential applications in the aforementioned technologies (e.g., avatar generation, network optimization, etc.), ensuring the security of AI in critical applications like AI-XR metaverse applications is profoundly crucial to avoid undesirable actions that could undermine users' privacy and safety, consequently putting their lives in danger. To this end, we attempt to analyze the security, privacy, and trustworthiness aspects associated with the use of various AI techniques in AI-XR metaverse applications. Specifically, we discuss numerous such challenges and present a taxonomy of potential solutions that could be leveraged to develop secure, private, robust, and trustworthy AI-XR applications. To highlight the real implications of AI-associated adversarial threats, we designed a metaverse-specific case study and analyzed it through the adversarial lens. Finally, we elaborate upon various open issues that require further research interest from the community.

Language model deployments in consumer-facing applications introduce numerous risks. While existing research on harms and hazards of such applications follows top-down approaches derived from regulatory frameworks and theoretical analyses, empirical evidence of real-world failure modes remains underexplored. In this work, we introduce RealHarm, a dataset of annotated problematic interactions with AI agents built from a systematic review of publicly reported incidents. Analyzing harms, causes, and hazards specifically from the deployer's perspective, we find that reputational damage constitutes the predominant organizational harm, while misinformation emerges as the most common hazard category. We empirically evaluate state-of-the-art guardrails and content moderation systems to probe whether such systems would have prevented the incidents, revealing a significant gap in the protection of AI applications.

Large language models (LLMs) excel at processing information reactively but lack the ability to systemically explore hypothetical futures. They cannot ask, "what if we take this action? how will it affect the final outcome" and forecast its potential consequences before acting. This critical gap limits their utility in dynamic, high-stakes scenarios like strategic planning, risk assessment, and real-time decision making. To bridge this gap, we propose WiA-LLM, a new paradigm that equips LLMs with proactive thinking capabilities. Our approach integrates What-If Analysis (WIA), a systematic approach for evaluating hypothetical scenarios by changing input variables. By leveraging environmental feedback via reinforcement learning, WiA-LLM moves beyond reactive thinking. It dynamically simulates the outcomes of each potential action, enabling the model to anticipate future states rather than merely react to the present conditions. We validate WiA-LLM in Honor of Kings (HoK), a complex multiplayer game environment characterized by rapid state changes and intricate interactions. The game's real-time state changes require precise multi-step consequence prediction, making it an ideal testbed for our approach. Experimental results demonstrate WiA-LLM achieves a remarkable 74.2% accuracy in forecasting game-state changes (up to two times gain over baselines). The model shows particularly significant gains in high-difficulty scenarios where accurate foresight is critical. To our knowledge, this is the first work to formally explore and integrate what-if analysis capabilities within LLMs. WiA-LLM represents a fundamental advance toward proactive reasoning in LLMs, providing a scalable framework for robust decision-making in dynamic environments with broad implications for strategic applications.

With the growing attention and investment in recent AI approaches such as large language models, the narrative that the larger the AI system the more valuable, powerful and interesting it is is increasingly seen as common sense. But what is this assumption based on, and how are we measuring value, power, and performance? And what are the collateral consequences of this race to ever-increasing scale? Here, we scrutinize the current scaling trends and trade-offs across multiple axes and refute two common assumptions underlying the 'bigger-is-better' AI paradigm: 1) that improved performance is a product of increased scale, and 2) that all interesting problems addressed by AI require large-scale models. Rather, we argue that this approach is not only fragile scientifically, but comes with undesirable consequences. First, it is not sustainable, as its compute demands increase faster than model performance, leading to unreasonable economic requirements and a disproportionate environmental footprint. Second, it implies focusing on certain problems at the expense of others, leaving aside important applications, e.g. health, education, or the climate. Finally, it exacerbates a concentration of power, which centralizes decision-making in the hands of a few actors while threatening to disempower others in the context of shaping both AI research and its applications throughout society.

Machine learning models are known to be susceptible to adversarial perturbation. One famous attack is the adversarial patch, a sticker with a particularly crafted pattern that makes the model incorrectly predict the object it is placed on. This attack presents a critical threat to cyber-physical systems that rely on cameras such as autonomous cars. Despite the significance of the problem, conducting research in this setting has been difficult; evaluating attacks and defenses in the real world is exceptionally costly while synthetic data are unrealistic. In this work, we propose the REAP (REalistic Adversarial Patch) benchmark, a digital benchmark that allows the user to evaluate patch attacks on real images, and under real-world conditions. Built on top of the Mapillary Vistas dataset, our benchmark contains over 14,000 traffic signs. Each sign is augmented with a pair of geometric and lighting transformations, which can be used to apply a digitally generated patch realistically onto the sign. Using our benchmark, we perform the first large-scale assessments of adversarial patch attacks under realistic conditions. Our experiments suggest that adversarial patch attacks may present a smaller threat than previously believed and that the success rate of an attack on simpler digital simulations is not predictive of its actual effectiveness in practice. We release our benchmark publicly at https://github.com/wagner-group/reap-benchmark.

Realistic physics engines play a crucial role for learning to manipulate deformable objects such as garments in simulation. By doing so, researchers can circumvent challenges such as sensing the deformation of the object in the realworld. In spite of the extensive use of simulations for this task, few works have evaluated the reality gap between deformable object simulators and real-world data. We present a benchmark dataset to evaluate the sim-to-real gap in cloth manipulation. The dataset is collected by performing a dynamic as well as a quasi-static cloth manipulation task involving contact with a rigid table. We use the dataset to evaluate the reality gap, computational time, and simulation stability of four popular deformable object simulators: MuJoCo, Bullet, Flex, and SOFA. Additionally, we discuss the benefits and drawbacks of each simulator. The benchmark dataset is open-source. Supplementary material, videos, and code, can be found at https://sites.google.com/view/cloth-sim2real-benchmark.

Machine learning has facilitated significant advancements across various robotics domains, including navigation, locomotion, and manipulation. Many such achievements have been driven by the extensive use of simulation as a critical tool for training and testing robotic systems prior to their deployment in real-world environments. However, simulations consist of abstractions and approximations that inevitably introduce discrepancies between simulated and real environments, known as the reality gap. These discrepancies significantly hinder the successful transfer of systems from simulation to the real world. Closing this gap remains one of the most pressing challenges in robotics. Recent advances in sim-to-real transfer have demonstrated promising results across various platforms, including locomotion, navigation, and manipulation. By leveraging techniques such as domain randomization, real-to-sim transfer, state and action abstractions, and sim-real co-training, many works have overcome the reality gap. However, challenges persist, and a deeper understanding of the reality gap's root causes and solutions is necessary. In this survey, we present a comprehensive overview of the sim-to-real landscape, highlighting the causes, solutions, and evaluation metrics for the reality gap and sim-to-real transfer.

When faced with novel situations, people are able to marshal relevant considerations from a wide range of background knowledge and put these to use in inferences and predictions. What permits us to draw in globally relevant information and reason over it coherently? Here, we explore the hypothesis that people use a combination of distributed and symbolic representations to construct bespoke mental models tailored to novel situations. We propose a computational implementation of this idea -- a ``Model Synthesis Architecture'' (MSA) -- using language models to implement global relevance-based retrieval and model synthesis and probabilistic programs to implement bespoke, coherent world models. We evaluate our MSA as a model of human judgments on a novel reasoning dataset. The dataset -- built around a `Model Olympics` domain of sports vignettes -- tests models' capacity for human-like, open-ended reasoning by requiring (i) judgments about novel causal structures described in language; (ii) drawing on large bodies of background knowledge; and (iii) doing both in light of observations that introduce arbitrary novel variables. Our MSA approach captures human judgments better than language model-only baselines, under both direct and chain-of-thought generations from the LM that supports model synthesis. These results suggest that MSAs can be implemented in a way that mirrors people's ability to deliver locally coherent reasoning over globally relevant variables, offering a path to understanding and replicating human reasoning in open-ended domains.

In recent years, the development of deep learning approaches for the task of person re-identification led to impressive results. However, this comes with a limitation for industrial and practical real-world applications. Firstly, most of the existing works operate on closed-world scenarios, in which the people to re-identify (probes) are compared to a closed-set (gallery). Real-world scenarios often are open-set problems in which the gallery is not known a priori, but the number of open-set approaches in the literature is significantly lower. Secondly, challenges such as multi-camera setups, occlusions, real-time requirements, etc., further constrain the applicability of off-the-shelf methods. This work presents MICRO-TRACK, a Modular Industrial multi-Camera Re_identification and Open-set Tracking system that is real-time, scalable, and easy to integrate into existing industrial surveillance scenarios. Furthermore, we release a novel Re-ID and tracking dataset acquired in an industrial manufacturing facility, dubbed Facility-ReID, consisting of 18-minute videos captured by 8 surveillance cameras.

We investigate the potential implications of large language models (LLMs), such as Generative Pre-trained Transformers (GPTs), on the U.S. labor market, focusing on the increased capabilities arising from LLM-powered software compared to LLMs on their own. Using a new rubric, we assess occupations based on their alignment with LLM capabilities, integrating both human expertise and GPT-4 classifications. Our findings reveal that around 80% of the U.S. workforce could have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by the introduction of LLMs, while approximately 19% of workers may see at least 50% of their tasks impacted. We do not make predictions about the development or adoption timeline of such LLMs. The projected effects span all wage levels, with higher-income jobs potentially facing greater exposure to LLM capabilities and LLM-powered software. Significantly, these impacts are not restricted to industries with higher recent productivity growth. Our analysis suggests that, with access to an LLM, about 15% of all worker tasks in the US could be completed significantly faster at the same level of quality. When incorporating software and tooling built on top of LLMs, this share increases to between 47 and 56% of all tasks. This finding implies that LLM-powered software will have a substantial effect on scaling the economic impacts of the underlying models. We conclude that LLMs such as GPTs exhibit traits of general-purpose technologies, indicating that they could have considerable economic, social, and policy implications.

Climate change is a major threat to humanity, and the actions required to prevent its catastrophic consequences include changes in both policy-making and individual behaviour. However, taking action requires understanding the effects of climate change, even though they may seem abstract and distant. Projecting the potential consequences of extreme climate events such as flooding in familiar places can help make the abstract impacts of climate change more concrete and encourage action. As part of a larger initiative to build a website that projects extreme climate events onto user-chosen photos, we present our solution to simulate photo-realistic floods on authentic images. To address this complex task in the absence of suitable training data, we propose ClimateGAN, a model that leverages both simulated and real data for unsupervised domain adaptation and conditional image generation. In this paper, we describe the details of our framework, thoroughly evaluate components of our architecture and demonstrate that our model is capable of robustly generating photo-realistic flooding.

An important feature of many real world facility location problems are capacity limits on the facilities. We show here how capacity constraints make it harder to design strategy proof mechanisms for facility location, but counter-intuitively can improve the guarantees on how well we can approximate the optimal solution.

Future prediction is a complex task for LLM agents, requiring a high level of analytical thinking, information gathering, contextual understanding, and decision-making under uncertainty. Agents must not only gather and interpret vast amounts of dynamic information but also integrate diverse data sources, weigh uncertainties, and adapt predictions based on emerging trends, just as human experts do in fields like politics, economics, and finance. Despite its importance, no large-scale benchmark exists for evaluating agents on future prediction, largely due to challenges in handling real-time updates and retrieving timely, accurate answers. To address this, we introduce FutureX, a dynamic and live evaluation benchmark specifically designed for LLM agents performing future prediction tasks. FutureX is the largest and most diverse live benchmark for future prediction, supporting real-time daily updates and eliminating data contamination through an automated pipeline for question gathering and answer collection. We evaluate 25 LLM/agent models, including those with reasoning, search capabilities, and integration of external tools such as the open-source Deep Research Agent and closed-source Deep Research models. This comprehensive evaluation assesses agents' adaptive reasoning and performance in dynamic environments. Additionally, we provide in-depth analyses of agents' failure modes and performance pitfalls in future-oriented tasks, including the vulnerability to fake web pages and the temporal validity. Our goal is to establish a dynamic, contamination-free evaluation standard that drives the development of LLM agents capable of performing at the level of professional human analysts in complex reasoning and predictive thinking.

The success of AI models relies on the availability of large, diverse, and high-quality datasets, which can be challenging to obtain due to data scarcity, privacy concerns, and high costs. Synthetic data has emerged as a promising solution by generating artificial data that mimics real-world patterns. This paper provides an overview of synthetic data research, discussing its applications, challenges, and future directions. We present empirical evidence from prior art to demonstrate its effectiveness and highlight the importance of ensuring its factuality, fidelity, and unbiasedness. We emphasize the need for responsible use of synthetic data to build more powerful, inclusive, and trustworthy language models.

The increasing popularity of large language models has not only led to widespread use but has also brought various risks, including the potential for systematically spreading fake news. Consequently, the development of classification systems such as DetectGPT has become vital. These detectors are vulnerable to evasion techniques, as demonstrated in an experimental series: Systematic changes of the generative models' temperature proofed shallow learning-detectors to be the least reliable. Fine-tuning the generative model via reinforcement learning circumvented BERT-based-detectors. Finally, rephrasing led to a >90\% evasion of zero-shot-detectors like DetectGPT, although texts stayed highly similar to the original. A comparison with existing work highlights the better performance of the presented methods. Possible implications for society and further research are discussed.

Games have been vital test beds for the rapid development of Agent-based research. Remarkable progress has been achieved in the past, but it is unclear if the findings equip for real-world problems. While pressure grows, some of the most critical ecological challenges can find mitigation and prevention solutions through technology and its applications. Most real-world domains include multi-agent scenarios and require machine-machine and human-machine collaboration. Open-source environments have not advanced and are often toy scenarios, too abstract or not suitable for multi-agent research. By mimicking real-world problems and increasing the complexity of environments, we hope to advance state-of-the-art multi-agent research and inspire researchers to work on immediate real-world problems. Here, we present HIVEX, an environment suite to benchmark multi-agent research focusing on ecological challenges. HIVEX includes the following environments: Wind Farm Control, Wildfire Resource Management, Drone-Based Reforestation, Ocean Plastic Collection, and Aerial Wildfire Suppression. We provide environments, training examples, and baselines for the main and sub-tasks. All trained models resulting from the experiments of this work are hosted on Hugging Face. We also provide a leaderboard on Hugging Face and encourage the community to submit models trained on our environment suite.

This paper explores the rapidly evolving ecosystem of publicly available AI models, and their potential implications on the security and safety landscape. As AI models become increasingly prevalent, understanding their potential risks and vulnerabilities is crucial. We review the current security and safety scenarios while highlighting challenges such as tracking issues, remediation, and the apparent absence of AI model lifecycle and ownership processes. Comprehensive strategies to enhance security and safety for both model developers and end-users are proposed. This paper aims to provide some of the foundational pieces for more standardized security, safety, and transparency in the development and operation of AI models and the larger open ecosystems and communities forming around them.

Search engine results often misalign with users' goals due to opaque algorithms, leading to unhelpful or detrimental information consumption. To address this, we developed a Google Chrome plugin that provides "content labels" for webpages in Google search results, assessing Actionability (guiding actions), Knowledge (enhancing understanding), and Emotion. Using natural language processing and machine learning, the plugin predicts these properties from webpage text based on models trained on participants' ratings, effectively reflecting user perceptions. The implications include enhanced user control over information consumption and promotion of healthier engagement with online content, potentially improving decision-making and well-being.

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) have exhibited extraordinary prowess in tasks like mathematics and coding, leveraging their advanced reasoning capabilities. Nevertheless, as these capabilities progress, significant concerns regarding their vulnerabilities and safety have arisen, which can pose challenges to their deployment and application in real-world settings. This paper presents a comprehensive survey of LRMs, meticulously exploring and summarizing the newly emerged safety risks, attacks, and defense strategies. By organizing these elements into a detailed taxonomy, this work aims to offer a clear and structured understanding of the current safety landscape of LRMs, facilitating future research and development to enhance the security and reliability of these powerful models.

High-stakes decision making involves reasoning under uncertainty about the future. In this work, we train language models to make predictions on open-ended forecasting questions. To scale up training data, we synthesize novel forecasting questions from global events reported in daily news, using a fully automated, careful curation recipe. We train the Qwen3 thinking models on our dataset, OpenForesight. To prevent leakage of future information during training and evaluation, we use an offline news corpus, both for data generation and retrieval in our forecasting system. Guided by a small validation set, we show the benefits of retrieval, and an improved reward function for reinforcement learning (RL). Once we obtain our final forecasting system, we perform held-out testing between May to August 2025. Our specialized model, OpenForecaster 8B, matches much larger proprietary models, with our training improving the accuracy, calibration, and consistency of predictions. We find calibration improvements from forecasting training generalize across popular benchmarks. We open-source all our models, code, and data to make research on language model forecasting broadly accessible.

This paper aims to help structure the risk landscape associated with large-scale Language Models (LMs). In order to foster advances in responsible innovation, an in-depth understanding of the potential risks posed by these models is needed. A wide range of established and anticipated risks are analysed in detail, drawing on multidisciplinary expertise and literature from computer science, linguistics, and social sciences. We outline six specific risk areas: I. Discrimination, Exclusion and Toxicity, II. Information Hazards, III. Misinformation Harms, V. Malicious Uses, V. Human-Computer Interaction Harms, VI. Automation, Access, and Environmental Harms. The first area concerns the perpetuation of stereotypes, unfair discrimination, exclusionary norms, toxic language, and lower performance by social group for LMs. The second focuses on risks from private data leaks or LMs correctly inferring sensitive information. The third addresses risks arising from poor, false or misleading information including in sensitive domains, and knock-on risks such as the erosion of trust in shared information. The fourth considers risks from actors who try to use LMs to cause harm. The fifth focuses on risks specific to LLMs used to underpin conversational agents that interact with human users, including unsafe use, manipulation or deception. The sixth discusses the risk of environmental harm, job automation, and other challenges that may have a disparate effect on different social groups or communities. In total, we review 21 risks in-depth. We discuss the points of origin of different risks and point to potential mitigation approaches. Lastly, we discuss organisational responsibilities in implementing mitigations, and the role of collaboration and participation. We highlight directions for further research, particularly on expanding the toolkit for assessing and evaluating the outlined risks in LMs.

Much recent work seeks to evaluate values and opinions in large language models (LLMs) using multiple-choice surveys and questionnaires. Most of this work is motivated by concerns around real-world LLM applications. For example, politically-biased LLMs may subtly influence society when they are used by millions of people. Such real-world concerns, however, stand in stark contrast to the artificiality of current evaluations: real users do not typically ask LLMs survey questions. Motivated by this discrepancy, we challenge the prevailing constrained evaluation paradigm for values and opinions in LLMs and explore more realistic unconstrained evaluations. As a case study, we focus on the popular Political Compass Test (PCT). In a systematic review, we find that most prior work using the PCT forces models to comply with the PCT's multiple-choice format. We show that models give substantively different answers when not forced; that answers change depending on how models are forced; and that answers lack paraphrase robustness. Then, we demonstrate that models give different answers yet again in a more realistic open-ended answer setting. We distill these findings into recommendations and open challenges in evaluating values and opinions in LLMs.

Modern reinforcement learning (RL) systems capture deep truths about general, human problem-solving. In domains where new data can be simulated cheaply, these systems uncover sequential decision-making policies that far exceed the ability of any human. Society faces many problems whose solutions require this skill, but they are often in domains where new data cannot be cheaply simulated. In such scenarios, we can learn simulators from existing data, but these will only ever be approximately correct, and can be pathologically incorrect when queried outside of their training distribution. As a result, a misalignment between the environments in which we train our agents and the real-world in which we wish to deploy our agents is inevitable. Dealing with this misalignment is the primary concern of zero-shot reinforcement learning, a problem setting where the agent must generalise to a new task or domain with zero practice shots. Whilst impressive progress has been made on methods that perform zero-shot RL in idealised settings, new work is needed if these results are to be replicated in real-world settings. In this thesis, we argue that doing so requires us to navigate (at least) three constraints. First, the data quality constraint: real-world datasets are small and homogeneous. Second, the observability constraint: states, dynamics and rewards in the real-world are often only partially observed. And third, the data availability constraint: a priori access to data cannot always be assumed. This work proposes a suite of methods that perform zero-shot RL subject to these constraints. In a series of empirical studies we expose the failings of existing methods, and justify our techniques for remedying them. We believe these designs take us a step closer to RL methods that can be deployed to solve real-world problems.

Counterfactual explanations are attracting significant attention due to the flourishing applications of machine learning models in consequential domains. A counterfactual plan consists of multiple possibilities to modify a given instance so that the model's prediction will be altered. As the predictive model can be updated subject to the future arrival of new data, a counterfactual plan may become ineffective or infeasible with respect to the future values of the model parameters. In this work, we study the counterfactual plans under model uncertainty, in which the distribution of the model parameters is partially prescribed using only the first- and second-moment information. First, we propose an uncertainty quantification tool to compute the lower and upper bounds of the probability of validity for any given counterfactual plan. We then provide corrective methods to adjust the counterfactual plan to improve the validity measure. The numerical experiments validate our bounds and demonstrate that our correction increases the robustness of the counterfactual plans in different real-world datasets.

Deep learning's recent history has been one of achievement: from triumphing over humans in the game of Go to world-leading performance in image classification, voice recognition, translation, and other tasks. But this progress has come with a voracious appetite for computing power. This article catalogs the extent of this dependency, showing that progress across a wide variety of applications is strongly reliant on increases in computing power. Extrapolating forward this reliance reveals that progress along current lines is rapidly becoming economically, technically, and environmentally unsustainable. Thus, continued progress in these applications will require dramatically more computationally-efficient methods, which will either have to come from changes to deep learning or from moving to other machine learning methods.

The core obstacle towards a large-scale deployment of autonomous vehicles currently lies in the long tail of rare events. These are extremely challenging since they do not occur often in the utilized training data for deep neural networks. To tackle this problem, we propose the generation of additional synthetic training data, covering a wide variety of corner case scenarios. As ontologies can represent human expert knowledge while enabling computational processing, we use them to describe scenarios. Our proposed master ontology is capable to model scenarios from all common corner case categories found in the literature. From this one master ontology, arbitrary scenario-describing ontologies can be derived. In an automated fashion, these can be converted into the OpenSCENARIO format and subsequently executed in simulation. This way, also challenging test and evaluation scenarios can be generated.

Simulation plays a crucial role in the development of autonomous vehicles (AVs) due to the potential risks associated with real-world testing. Although significant progress has been made in the visual aspects of simulators, generating complex behavior among agents remains a formidable challenge. It is not only imperative to ensure realism in the scenarios generated but also essential to incorporate preferences and conditions to facilitate controllable generation for AV training and evaluation. Traditional methods, mainly relying on memorizing the distribution of training datasets, often fall short in generating unseen scenarios. Inspired by the success of retrieval augmented generation in large language models, we present RealGen, a novel retrieval-based in-context learning framework for traffic scenario generation. RealGen synthesizes new scenarios by combining behaviors from multiple retrieved examples in a gradient-free way, which may originate from templates or tagged scenarios. This in-context learning framework endows versatile generative capabilities, including the ability to edit scenarios, compose various behaviors, and produce critical scenarios. Evaluations show that RealGen offers considerable flexibility and controllability, marking a new direction in the field of controllable traffic scenario generation. Check our project website for more information: https://realgen.github.io.

Knowing that the generative capabilities of large language models (LLM) are sometimes hampered by tendencies to hallucinate or create non-factual responses, researchers have increasingly focused on methods to ground generated outputs in factual data. Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) has emerged as a key approach for integrating knowledge from data sources outside of the LLM's training set, including proprietary and up-to-date information. While many research papers explore various RAG strategies, their true efficacy is tested in real-world applications with actual data. The journey from conceiving an idea to actualizing it in the real world is a lengthy process. We present insights from the development and field-testing of a pilot project that integrates LLMs with RAG for information retrieval. Additionally, we examine the impacts on the information value chain, encompassing people, processes, and technology. Our aim is to identify the opportunities and challenges of implementing this emerging technology, particularly within the context of behavioral research in the information systems (IS) field. The contributions of this work include the development of best practices and recommendations for adopting this promising technology while ensuring compliance with industry regulations through a proposed AI governance model.

Recent text and image foundation models are incredibly impressive, and these models are attracting an ever-increasing portion of research resources. In this position piece we aim to shift the ML research community's priorities ever so slightly to a different modality: tabular data. Tabular data is the dominant modality in many fields, yet it is given hardly any research attention and significantly lags behind in terms of scale and power. We believe the time is now to start developing tabular foundation models, or what we coin a Large Tabular Model (LTM). LTMs could revolutionise the way science and ML use tabular data: not as single datasets that are analyzed in a vacuum, but contextualized with respect to related datasets. The potential impact is far-reaching: from few-shot tabular models to automating data science; from out-of-distribution synthetic data to empowering multidisciplinary scientific discovery. We intend to excite reflections on the modalities we study, and convince some researchers to study large tabular models.

Understanding the landscape of potential harms from algorithmic systems enables practitioners to better anticipate consequences of the systems they build. It also supports the prospect of incorporating controls to help minimize harms that emerge from the interplay of technologies and social and cultural dynamics. A growing body of scholarship has identified a wide range of harms across different algorithmic technologies. However, computing research and practitioners lack a high level and synthesized overview of harms from algorithmic systems. Based on a scoping review of computing research (n=172), we present an applied taxonomy of sociotechnical harms to support a more systematic surfacing of potential harms in algorithmic systems. The final taxonomy builds on and refers to existing taxonomies, classifications, and terminologies. Five major themes related to sociotechnical harms - representational, allocative, quality-of-service, interpersonal harms, and social system/societal harms - and sub-themes are presented along with a description of these categories. We conclude with a discussion of challenges and opportunities for future research.

Video generation models have achieved remarkable progress in creating high-quality, photorealistic content. However, their ability to accurately simulate physical phenomena remains a critical and unresolved challenge. This paper presents PhyWorldBench, a comprehensive benchmark designed to evaluate video generation models based on their adherence to the laws of physics. The benchmark covers multiple levels of physical phenomena, ranging from fundamental principles like object motion and energy conservation to more complex scenarios involving rigid body interactions and human or animal motion. Additionally, we introduce a novel ""Anti-Physics"" category, where prompts intentionally violate real-world physics, enabling the assessment of whether models can follow such instructions while maintaining logical consistency. Besides large-scale human evaluation, we also design a simple yet effective method that could utilize current MLLM to evaluate the physics realism in a zero-shot fashion. We evaluate 12 state-of-the-art text-to-video generation models, including five open-source and five proprietary models, with a detailed comparison and analysis. we identify pivotal challenges models face in adhering to real-world physics. Through systematic testing of their outputs across 1,050 curated prompts-spanning fundamental, composite, and anti-physics scenarios-we identify pivotal challenges these models face in adhering to real-world physics. We then rigorously examine their performance on diverse physical phenomena with varying prompt types, deriving targeted recommendations for crafting prompts that enhance fidelity to physical principles.

In the current data driven era, synthetic data, artificially generated data that resembles the characteristics of real world data without containing actual personal information, is gaining prominence. This is due to its potential to safeguard privacy, increase the availability of data for research, and reduce bias in machine learning models. This paper investigates the policies governing the creation, utilization, and dissemination of synthetic data. Synthetic data can be a powerful instrument for protecting the privacy of individuals, but it also presents challenges, such as ensuring its quality and authenticity. A well crafted synthetic data policy must strike a balance between privacy concerns and the utility of data, ensuring that it can be utilized effectively without compromising ethical or legal standards. Organizations and institutions must develop standardized guidelines and best practices in order to capitalize on the benefits of synthetic data while addressing its inherent challenges.

Predicting future international events from textual information, such as news articles, has tremendous potential for applications in global policy, strategic decision-making, and geopolitics. However, existing datasets available for this task are often limited in quality, hindering the progress of related research. In this paper, we introduce WORLDREP (WORLD Relationship and Event Prediction), a novel dataset designed to address these limitations by leveraging the advanced reasoning capabilities of large-language models (LLMs). Our dataset features high-quality scoring labels generated through advanced prompt modeling and rigorously validated by domain experts in political science. We showcase the quality and utility of WORLDREP for real-world event prediction tasks, demonstrating its effectiveness through extensive experiments and analysis. Furthermore, we publicly release our dataset along with the full automation source code for data collection, labeling, and benchmarking, aiming to support and advance research in text-based event prediction.

Online misinformation poses a global risk with significant real-world consequences. To combat misinformation, current research relies on professionals like journalists and fact-checkers for annotating and debunking misinformation, and develops automated machine learning methods for detecting misinformation. Complementary to these approaches, recent research has increasingly concentrated on utilizing the power of ordinary social media users, a.k.a. "crowd", who act as eyes-on-the-ground proactively questioning and countering misinformation. Notably, recent studies show that 96% of counter-misinformation responses originate from them. Acknowledging their prominent role, we present the first systematic and comprehensive survey of research papers that actively leverage the crowds to combat misinformation. We first identify 88 papers related to crowd-based efforts, following a meticulous annotation process adhering to the PRISMA framework. We then present key statistics related to misinformation, counter-misinformation, and crowd input in different formats and topics. Upon holistic analysis of the papers, we introduce a novel taxonomy of the roles played by the crowds: (i)annotators who actively identify misinformation; (ii)evaluators who assess counter-misinformation effectiveness; (iii)creators who create counter-misinformation. This taxonomy explores the crowd's capabilities in misinformation detection, identifies prerequisites for effective counter-misinformation, and analyzes crowd-generated counter-misinformation. Then, we delve into (i)distinguishing individual, collaborative, and machine-assisted labeling for annotators; (ii)analyzing the effectiveness of counter-misinformation through surveys, interviews, and in-lab experiments for evaluators; and (iii)characterizing creation patterns and creator profiles for creators. Finally, we outline potential future research in this field.

Throughout the course of my Ph.D., I have been designing the user experience (UX) of various machine learning (ML) systems. In this workshop, I share two projects as case studies in which people engage with ML in much more complicated and nuanced ways than the technical HCML work might assume. The first case study describes how cardiology teams in three hospitals used a clinical decision-support system that helps them decide whether and when to implant an artificial heart to a heart failure patient. I demonstrate that physicians cannot draw on their decision-making experience by seeing only patient data on paper. They are also confused by some fundamental premises upon which ML operates. For example, physicians asked: Are ML predictions made based on clinicians' best efforts? Is it ethical to make decisions based on previous patients' collective outcomes? In the second case study, my collaborators and I designed an intelligent text editor, with the goal of improving authors' writing experience with NLP (Natural Language Processing) technologies. We prototyped a number of generative functionalities where the system provides phrase-or-sentence-level writing suggestions upon user request. When writing with the prototype, however, authors shared that they need to "see where the sentence is going two paragraphs later" in order to decide whether the suggestion aligns with their writing; Some even considered adopting machine suggestions as plagiarism, therefore "is simply wrong". By sharing these unexpected and intriguing responses from these real-world ML users, I hope to start a discussion about such previously-unknown complexities and nuances of -- as the workshop proposal states -- "putting ML at the service of people in a way that is accessible, useful, and trustworthy to all".

The development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) promises to be a major event. Along with its many potential benefits, it also raises serious safety concerns (Bostrom, 2014). The intention of this paper is to provide an easily accessible and up-to-date collection of references for the emerging field of AGI safety. A significant number of safety problems for AGI have been identified. We list these, and survey recent research on solving them. We also cover works on how best to think of AGI from the limited knowledge we have today, predictions for when AGI will first be created, and what will happen after its creation. Finally, we review the current public policy on AGI.

Codex, a large language model (LLM) trained on a variety of codebases, exceeds the previous state of the art in its capacity to synthesize and generate code. Although Codex provides a plethora of benefits, models that may generate code on such scale have significant limitations, alignment problems, the potential to be misused, and the possibility to increase the rate of progress in technical fields that may themselves have destabilizing impacts or have misuse potential. Yet such safety impacts are not yet known or remain to be explored. In this paper, we outline a hazard analysis framework constructed at OpenAI to uncover hazards or safety risks that the deployment of models like Codex may impose technically, socially, politically, and economically. The analysis is informed by a novel evaluation framework that determines the capacity of advanced code generation techniques against the complexity and expressivity of specification prompts, and their capability to understand and execute them relative to human ability.

We introduce RealPlay, a neural network-based real-world game engine that enables interactive video generation from user control signals. Unlike prior works focused on game-style visuals, RealPlay aims to produce photorealistic, temporally consistent video sequences that resemble real-world footage. It operates in an interactive loop: users observe a generated scene, issue a control command, and receive a short video chunk in response. To enable such realistic and responsive generation, we address key challenges including iterative chunk-wise prediction for low-latency feedback, temporal consistency across iterations, and accurate control response. RealPlay is trained on a combination of labeled game data and unlabeled real-world videos, without requiring real-world action annotations. Notably, we observe two forms of generalization: (1) control transfer-RealPlay effectively maps control signals from virtual to real-world scenarios; and (2) entity transfer-although training labels originate solely from a car racing game, RealPlay generalizes to control diverse real-world entities, including bicycles and pedestrians, beyond vehicles. Project page can be found: https://wenqsun.github.io/RealPlay/

The remarkable success of Large Language Models (LLMs) has illuminated a promising pathway toward achieving Artificial General Intelligence for both academic and industrial communities, owing to their unprecedented performance across various applications. As LLMs continue to gain prominence in both research and commercial domains, their security and safety implications have become a growing concern, not only for researchers and corporations but also for every nation. Currently, existing surveys on LLM safety primarily focus on specific stages of the LLM lifecycle, e.g., deployment phase or fine-tuning phase, lacking a comprehensive understanding of the entire "lifechain" of LLMs. To address this gap, this paper introduces, for the first time, the concept of "full-stack" safety to systematically consider safety issues throughout the entire process of LLM training, deployment, and eventual commercialization. Compared to the off-the-shelf LLM safety surveys, our work demonstrates several distinctive advantages: (I) Comprehensive Perspective. We define the complete LLM lifecycle as encompassing data preparation, pre-training, post-training, deployment and final commercialization. To our knowledge, this represents the first safety survey to encompass the entire lifecycle of LLMs. (II) Extensive Literature Support. Our research is grounded in an exhaustive review of over 800+ papers, ensuring comprehensive coverage and systematic organization of security issues within a more holistic understanding. (III) Unique Insights. Through systematic literature analysis, we have developed reliable roadmaps and perspectives for each chapter. Our work identifies promising research directions, including safety in data generation, alignment techniques, model editing, and LLM-based agent systems. These insights provide valuable guidance for researchers pursuing future work in this field.

Multimodal counterfactual reasoning is a vital yet challenging ability for AI systems. It involves predicting the outcomes of hypothetical circumstances based on vision and language inputs, which enables AI models to learn from failures and explore hypothetical scenarios. Despite its importance, there are only a few datasets targeting the counterfactual reasoning abilities of multimodal models. Among them, they only cover reasoning over synthetic environments or specific types of events (e.g. traffic collisions), making them hard to reliably benchmark the model generalization ability in diverse real-world scenarios and reasoning dimensions. To overcome these limitations, we develop a video question answering dataset, ACQUIRED: it consists of 3.9K annotated videos, encompassing a wide range of event types and incorporating both first and third-person viewpoints, which ensures a focus on real-world diversity. In addition, each video is annotated with questions that span three distinct dimensions of reasoning, including physical, social, and temporal, which can comprehensively evaluate the model counterfactual abilities along multiple aspects. We benchmark our dataset against several state-of-the-art language-only and multimodal models and experimental results demonstrate a significant performance gap (>13%) between models and humans. The findings suggest that multimodal counterfactual reasoning remains an open challenge and ACQUIRED is a comprehensive and reliable benchmark for inspiring future research in this direction.

Many real-world prediction problems lack labels observable at prediction time, creating a temporal gap between prediction and outcome that yields supervision only after events resolve. To address this setting, we extend reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards to temporally resolved real-world prediction, and use it to train language models to make probabilistic forecasts under causally masked information with retrospective evaluation using proper scoring rules. Supervision is derived solely from post-resolution outcomes, preserving delayed-reward semantics. On real-world forecasting benchmarks, Qwen3-32B trained using Foresight Learning improves Brier score by 27% and halves calibration error relative to its pretrained baseline, and outperforms Qwen3-235B on both constructed future-event prediction tasks and the Metaculus benchmark despite a 7x parameter disadvantage.

The availability of representative datasets is an essential prerequisite for many successful artificial intelligence and machine learning models. However, in real life applications these models often encounter scenarios that are inadequately represented in the data used for training. There are various reasons for the absence of sufficient data, ranging from time and cost constraints to ethical considerations. As a consequence, the reliable usage of these models, especially in safety-critical applications, is still a tremendous challenge. Leveraging additional, already existing sources of knowledge is key to overcome the limitations of purely data-driven approaches. Knowledge augmented machine learning approaches offer the possibility of compensating for deficiencies, errors, or ambiguities in the data, thus increasing the generalization capability of the applied models. Even more, predictions that conform with knowledge are crucial for making trustworthy and safe decisions even in underrepresented scenarios. This work provides an overview of existing techniques and methods in the literature that combine data-driven models with existing knowledge. The identified approaches are structured according to the categories knowledge integration, extraction and conformity. In particular, we address the application of the presented methods in the field of autonomous driving.

Recent breakthroughs in natural language processing (NLP) have permitted the synthesis and comprehension of coherent text in an open-ended way, therefore translating the theoretical algorithms into practical applications. The large language models (LLMs) have significantly impacted businesses such as report summarization software and copywriters. Observations indicate, however, that LLMs may exhibit social prejudice and toxicity, posing ethical and societal dangers of consequences resulting from irresponsibility. Large-scale benchmarks for accountable LLMs should consequently be developed. Although several empirical investigations reveal the existence of a few ethical difficulties in advanced LLMs, there is little systematic examination and user study of the risks and harmful behaviors of current LLM usage. To further educate future efforts on constructing ethical LLMs responsibly, we perform a qualitative research method called ``red teaming'' on OpenAI's ChatGPTIn this paper, ChatGPT refers to the version released on Dec 15th. to better understand the practical features of ethical dangers in recent LLMs. We analyze ChatGPT comprehensively from four perspectives: 1) Bias 2) Reliability 3) Robustness 4) Toxicity. In accordance with our stated viewpoints, we empirically benchmark ChatGPT on multiple sample datasets. We find that a significant number of ethical risks cannot be addressed by existing benchmarks, and hence illustrate them via additional case studies. In addition, we examine the implications of our findings on AI ethics and harmal behaviors of ChatGPT, as well as future problems and practical design considerations for responsible LLMs. We believe that our findings may give light on future efforts to determine and mitigate the ethical hazards posed by machines in LLM applications.

Autonomous agents have recently achieved remarkable progress across diverse domains, yet most evaluations focus on short-horizon, fully observable tasks. In contrast, many critical real-world tasks, such as large-scale software development, commercial investment, and scientific discovery, unfold in long-horizon and partially observable scenarios where success hinges on sustained reasoning, planning, memory management, and tool use. Existing benchmarks rarely capture these long-horizon challenges, leaving a gap in systematic evaluation. To bridge this gap, we introduce UltraHorizon a novel benchmark that measures the foundational capabilities essential for complex real-world challenges. We use exploration as a unifying task across three distinct environments to validate these core competencies. Agents are designed in long-horizon discovery tasks where they must iteratively uncover hidden rules through sustained reasoning, planning, memory and tools management, and interaction with environments. Under the heaviest scale setting, trajectories average 200k+ tokens and 400+ tool calls, whereas in standard configurations they still exceed 35k tokens and involve more than 60 tool calls on average. Our extensive experiments reveal that LLM-agents consistently underperform in these settings, whereas human participants achieve higher scores, underscoring a persistent gap in agents' long-horizon abilities. We also observe that simple scaling fails in our task. To better illustrate the failure of agents, we conduct an in-depth analysis of collected trajectories. We identify eight types of errors and attribute them to two primary causes: in-context locking and functional fundamental capability gaps. https://github.com/StarDewXXX/UltraHorizon{Our code will be available here.}

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown state-of-the-art performance in a variety of tasks, including arithmetic and reasoning; however, to gauge the intellectual capabilities of LLMs, causal reasoning has become a reliable proxy for validating a general understanding of the mechanics and intricacies of the world similar to humans. Previous works in natural language processing (NLP) have either focused on open-ended causal reasoning via causal commonsense reasoning (CCR) or framed a symbolic representation-based question answering for theoretically backed-up analysis via a causal inference engine. The former adds an advantage of real-world grounding but lacks theoretically backed-up analysis/validation, whereas the latter is far from real-world grounding. In this work, we bridge this gap by proposing the COLD (Causal reasOning in cLosed Daily activities) framework, which is built upon human understanding of daily real-world activities to reason about the causal nature of events. We show that the proposed framework facilitates the creation of enormous causal queries (~ 9 million) and comes close to the mini-turing test, simulating causal reasoning to evaluate the understanding of a daily real-world task. We evaluate multiple LLMs on the created causal queries and find that causal reasoning is challenging even for activities trivial to humans. We further explore (the causal reasoning abilities of LLMs) using the backdoor criterion to determine the causal strength between events.

In this short consensus paper, we outline risks from upcoming, advanced AI systems. We examine large-scale social harms and malicious uses, as well as an irreversible loss of human control over autonomous AI systems. In light of rapid and continuing AI progress, we propose urgent priorities for AI R&D and governance.

As language models are adapted by a more sophisticated and diverse set of users, the importance of guaranteeing that they provide factually correct information supported by verifiable sources is critical across fields of study & professions. This is especially the case for high-stakes fields, such as medicine and law, where the risk of propagating false information is high and can lead to undesirable societal consequences. Previous work studying factuality and attribution has not focused on analyzing these characteristics of language model outputs in domain-specific scenarios. In this work, we present an evaluation study analyzing various axes of factuality and attribution provided in responses from a few systems, by bringing domain experts in the loop. Specifically, we first collect expert-curated questions from 484 participants across 32 fields of study, and then ask the same experts to evaluate generated responses to their own questions. We also ask experts to revise answers produced by language models, which leads to ExpertQA, a high-quality long-form QA dataset with 2177 questions spanning 32 fields, along with verified answers and attributions for claims in the answers.

Machine learning is now used in many applications thanks to its ability to predict, generate, or discover patterns from large quantities of data. However, the process of collecting and transforming data for practical use is intricate. Even in today's digital era, where substantial data is generated daily, it is uncommon for it to be readily usable; most often, it necessitates meticulous manual data preparation. The haste in developing new models can frequently result in various shortcomings, potentially posing risks when deployed in real-world scenarios (eg social discrimination, critical failures), leading to the failure or substantial escalation of costs in AI-based projects. This chapter provides a comprehensive overview of established methodological tools, enriched by our practical experience, in the development of datasets for machine learning. Initially, we develop the tasks involved in dataset development and offer insights into their effective management (including requirements, design, implementation, evaluation, distribution, and maintenance). Then, we provide more details about the implementation process which includes data collection, transformation, and quality evaluation. Finally, we address practical considerations regarding dataset distribution and maintenance.

With the rapid development of multimodal large language models (MLLMs), they are increasingly deployed as autonomous computer-use agents capable of accomplishing complex computer tasks. However, a pressing issue arises: Can the safety risk principles designed and aligned for general MLLMs in dialogue scenarios be effectively transferred to real-world computer-use scenarios? Existing research on evaluating the safety risks of MLLM-based computer-use agents suffers from several limitations: it either lacks realistic interactive environments, or narrowly focuses on one or a few specific risk types. These limitations ignore the complexity, variability, and diversity of real-world environments, thereby restricting comprehensive risk evaluation for computer-use agents. To this end, we introduce RiOSWorld, a benchmark designed to evaluate the potential risks of MLLM-based agents during real-world computer manipulations. Our benchmark includes 492 risky tasks spanning various computer applications, involving web, social media, multimedia, os, email, and office software. We categorize these risks into two major classes based on their risk source: (i) User-originated risks and (ii) Environmental risks. For the evaluation, we evaluate safety risks from two perspectives: (i) Risk goal intention and (ii) Risk goal completion. Extensive experiments with multimodal agents on RiOSWorld demonstrate that current computer-use agents confront significant safety risks in real-world scenarios. Our findings highlight the necessity and urgency of safety alignment for computer-use agents in real-world computer manipulation, providing valuable insights for developing trustworthy computer-use agents. Our benchmark is publicly available at https://yjyddq.github.io/RiOSWorld.github.io/.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have gained significant attention in the medical domain for their human-level capabilities, leading to increased efforts to explore their potential in various healthcare applications. However, despite such a promising future, there are multiple challenges and obstacles that remain for their real-world uses in practical settings. This work discusses key challenges for LLMs in medical applications from four unique aspects: operational vulnerabilities, ethical and social considerations, performance and assessment difficulties, and legal and regulatory compliance. Addressing these challenges is crucial for leveraging LLMs to their full potential and ensuring their responsible integration into healthcare.

In their recent Nature Human Behaviour paper, "Emergent analogical reasoning in large language models," (Webb, Holyoak, and Lu, 2023) the authors argue that "large language models such as GPT-3 have acquired an emergent ability to find zero-shot solutions to a broad range of analogy problems." In this response, we provide counterexamples of the letter string analogies. In our tests, GPT-3 fails to solve even the easiest variants of the problems presented in the original paper. Zero-shot reasoning is an extraordinary claim that requires extraordinary evidence. We do not see that evidence in our experiments. To strengthen claims of humanlike reasoning such as zero-shot reasoning, it is important that the field develop approaches that rule out data memorization.

Industrial operations have grown exponentially over the last century, driving advancements in energy utilization through vehicles and machinery.This growth has significant environmental implications, necessitating the use of sophisticated technology to monitor and analyze climate data.The surge in industrial activities presents a complex challenge in forecasting its diverse environmental impacts, which vary greatly across different regions.Aim to understand these dynamics more deeply to predict and mitigate the environmental impacts of industrial activities.

Naturally occurring information-seeking questions often contain questionable assumptions -- assumptions that are false or unverifiable. Questions containing questionable assumptions are challenging because they require a distinct answer strategy that deviates from typical answers for information-seeking questions. For instance, the question "When did Marie Curie discover Uranium?" cannot be answered as a typical "when" question without addressing the false assumption "Marie Curie discovered Uranium". In this work, we propose (QA)^2 (Question Answering with Questionable Assumptions), an open-domain evaluation dataset consisting of naturally occurring search engine queries that may or may not contain questionable assumptions. To be successful on (QA)^2, systems must be able to detect questionable assumptions and also be able to produce adequate responses for both typical information-seeking questions and ones with questionable assumptions. Through human rater acceptability on end-to-end QA with (QA)^2, we find that current models do struggle with handling questionable assumptions, leaving substantial headroom for progress.

Driven by vast and diverse textual data, large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive performance across numerous natural language processing (NLP) tasks. Yet, a critical question persists: does their generalization arise from mere memorization of training data or from deep semantic understanding? To investigate this, we propose a bi-perspective evaluation framework to assess LLMs' scenario cognition - the ability to link semantic scenario elements with their arguments in context. Specifically, we introduce a novel scenario-based dataset comprising diverse textual descriptions of fictional facts, annotated with scenario elements. LLMs are evaluated through their capacity to answer scenario-related questions (model output perspective) and via probing their internal representations for encoded scenario elements-argument associations (internal representation perspective). Our experiments reveal that current LLMs predominantly rely on superficial memorization, failing to achieve robust semantic scenario cognition, even in simple cases. These findings expose critical limitations in LLMs' semantic understanding and offer cognitive insights for advancing their capabilities.

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) aims to learn from historical data without requiring (costly) access to the environment. To facilitate offline RL research, we previously introduced NeoRL, which highlighted that datasets from real-world tasks are often conservative and limited. With years of experience applying offline RL to various domains, we have identified additional real-world challenges. These include extremely conservative data distributions produced by deployed control systems, delayed action effects caused by high-latency transitions, external factors arising from the uncontrollable variance of transitions, and global safety constraints that are difficult to evaluate during the decision-making process. These challenges are underrepresented in previous benchmarks but frequently occur in real-world tasks. To address this, we constructed the extended Near Real-World Offline RL Benchmark (NeoRL-2), which consists of 7 datasets from 7 simulated tasks along with their corresponding evaluation simulators. Benchmarking results from state-of-the-art offline RL approaches demonstrate that current methods often struggle to outperform the data-collection behavior policy, highlighting the need for more effective methods. We hope NeoRL-2 will accelerate the development of reinforcement learning algorithms for real-world applications. The benchmark project page is available at https://github.com/polixir/NeoRL2.

Deep learning in computer vision has achieved great success with the price of large-scale labeled training data. However, exhaustive data annotation is impracticable for each task of all domains of interest, due to high labor costs and unguaranteed labeling accuracy. Besides, the uncontrollable data collection process produces non-IID training and test data, where undesired duplication may exist. All these nuisances may hinder the verification of typical theories and exposure to new findings. To circumvent them, an alternative is to generate synthetic data via 3D rendering with domain randomization. We in this work push forward along this line by doing profound and extensive research on bare supervised learning and downstream domain adaptation. Specifically, under the well-controlled, IID data setting enabled by 3D rendering, we systematically verify the typical, important learning insights, e.g., shortcut learning, and discover the new laws of various data regimes and network architectures in generalization. We further investigate the effect of image formation factors on generalization, e.g., object scale, material texture, illumination, camera viewpoint, and background in a 3D scene. Moreover, we use the simulation-to-reality adaptation as a downstream task for comparing the transferability between synthetic and real data when used for pre-training, which demonstrates that synthetic data pre-training is also promising to improve real test results. Lastly, to promote future research, we develop a new large-scale synthetic-to-real benchmark for image classification, termed S2RDA, which provides more significant challenges for transfer from simulation to reality. The code and datasets are available at https://github.com/huitangtang/On_the_Utility_of_Synthetic_Data.

Large language models (LLMs) have recently gained much attention in building autonomous agents. However, the performance of current LLM-based web agents in long-horizon tasks is far from optimal, often yielding errors such as repeatedly buying a non-refundable flight ticket. By contrast, humans can avoid such an irreversible mistake, as we have an awareness of the potential outcomes (e.g., losing money) of our actions, also known as the "world model". Motivated by this, our study first starts with preliminary analyses, confirming the absence of world models in current LLMs (e.g., GPT-4o, Claude-3.5-Sonnet, etc.). Then, we present a World-model-augmented (WMA) web agent, which simulates the outcomes of its actions for better decision-making. To overcome the challenges in training LLMs as world models predicting next observations, such as repeated elements across observations and long HTML inputs, we propose a transition-focused observation abstraction, where the prediction objectives are free-form natural language descriptions exclusively highlighting important state differences between time steps. Experiments on WebArena and Mind2Web show that our world models improve agents' policy selection without training and demonstrate our agents' cost- and time-efficiency compared to recent tree-search-based agents.

One well motivated explanation method for classifiers leverages counterfactuals which are hypothetical events identical to real observations in all aspects except for one categorical feature. Constructing such counterfactual poses specific challenges for texts, however, as some attribute values may not necessarily align with plausible real-world events. In this paper we propose a simple method for generating counterfactuals by intervening in the space of text representations which bypasses this limitation. We argue that our interventions are minimally disruptive and that they are theoretically sound as they align with counterfactuals as defined in Pearl's causal inference framework. To validate our method, we first conduct experiments on a synthetic dataset of counterfactuals, allowing for a direct comparison between classifier predictions based on ground truth counterfactuals (obtained through explicit text interventions) and our counterfactuals, derived through interventions in the representation space. Second, we study a real world scenario where our counterfactuals can be leveraged both for explaining a classifier and for bias mitigation.

Observational studies of causal effects require adjustment for confounding factors. In the tabular setting, where these factors are well-defined, separate random variables, the effect of confounding is well understood. However, in public policy, ecology, and in medicine, decisions are often made in non-tabular settings, informed by patterns or objects detected in images (e.g., maps, satellite or tomography imagery). Using such imagery for causal inference presents an opportunity because objects in the image may be related to the treatment and outcome of interest. In these cases, we rely on the images to adjust for confounding but observed data do not directly label the existence of the important objects. Motivated by real-world applications, we formalize this challenge, how it can be handled, and what conditions are sufficient to identify and estimate causal effects. We analyze finite-sample performance using simulation experiments, estimating effects using a propensity adjustment algorithm that employs a machine learning model to estimate the image confounding. Our experiments also examine sensitivity to misspecification of the image pattern mechanism. Finally, we use our methodology to estimate the effects of policy interventions on poverty in African communities from satellite imagery.

This explainer document aims to provide an overview of the current state of the rapidly expanding work on synthetic data technologies, with a particular focus on privacy. The article is intended for a non-technical audience, though some formal definitions have been given to provide clarity to specialists. This article is intended to enable the reader to quickly become familiar with the notion of synthetic data, as well as understand some of the subtle intricacies that come with it. We do believe that synthetic data is a very useful tool, and our hope is that this report highlights that, while drawing attention to nuances that can easily be overlooked in its deployment.

General world models represent a crucial pathway toward achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), serving as the cornerstone for various applications ranging from virtual environments to decision-making systems. Recently, the emergence of the Sora model has attained significant attention due to its remarkable simulation capabilities, which exhibits an incipient comprehension of physical laws. In this survey, we embark on a comprehensive exploration of the latest advancements in world models. Our analysis navigates through the forefront of generative methodologies in video generation, where world models stand as pivotal constructs facilitating the synthesis of highly realistic visual content. Additionally, we scrutinize the burgeoning field of autonomous-driving world models, meticulously delineating their indispensable role in reshaping transportation and urban mobility. Furthermore, we delve into the intricacies inherent in world models deployed within autonomous agents, shedding light on their profound significance in enabling intelligent interactions within dynamic environmental contexts. At last, we examine challenges and limitations of world models, and discuss their potential future directions. We hope this survey can serve as a foundational reference for the research community and inspire continued innovation. This survey will be regularly updated at: https://github.com/GigaAI-research/General-World-Models-Survey.

This paper argues that fully autonomous AI agents should not be developed. In support of this position, we build from prior scientific literature and current product marketing to delineate different AI agent levels and detail the ethical values at play in each, documenting trade-offs in potential benefits and risks. Our analysis reveals that risks to people increase with the autonomy of a system: The more control a user cedes to an AI agent, the more risks to people arise. Particularly concerning are safety risks, which affect human life and impact further values.

As we increasingly seek guidance from LLMs for decision-making in daily life, many of these decisions are not clear-cut and depend significantly on the personal values and ethical standards of the users. We present DailyDilemmas, a dataset of 1,360 moral dilemmas encountered in everyday life. Each dilemma includes two possible actions and with each action, the affected parties and human values invoked. Based on these dilemmas, we consolidated a set of human values across everyday topics e.g., interpersonal relationships, workplace, and environmental issues. We evaluated LLMs on these dilemmas to determine what action they will take and the values represented by these actions. Then, we analyzed these values through the lens of five popular theories inspired by sociology, psychology and philosophy. These theories are: World Value Survey, Moral Foundation Theory, Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs, Aristotle's Virtues, and Plutchik Wheel of Emotion. We find that LLMs are most aligned with the self-expression over survival values in terms of World Value Survey, care over loyalty in Moral Foundation Theory. Interestingly, we find large preferences differences in models for some core values such as truthfulness e.g., Mixtral-8x7B model tends to neglect it by 9.7% while GPT-4-turbo model tends to select it by 9.4%. We also study the recent guidance released by OpenAI (ModelSpec), and Anthropic (Constitutional AI) to understand how their released principles reflect their actual value prioritization when facing nuanced moral reasoning in daily-life settings. We find that end users cannot effectively steer such prioritization using system prompts.

Predicting the evolution of complex physical systems remains a central problem in science and engineering. Despite rapid progress in scientific Machine Learning (ML) models, a critical bottleneck is the lack of expensive real-world data, resulting in most current models being trained and validated on simulated data. Beyond limiting the development and evaluation of scientific ML, this gap also hinders research into essential tasks such as sim-to-real transfer. We introduce RealPDEBench, the first benchmark for scientific ML that integrates real-world measurements with paired numerical simulations. RealPDEBench consists of five datasets, three tasks, eight metrics, and ten baselines. We first present five real-world measured datasets with paired simulated datasets across different complex physical systems. We further define three tasks, which allow comparisons between real-world and simulated data, and facilitate the development of methods to bridge the two. Moreover, we design eight evaluation metrics, spanning data-oriented and physics-oriented metrics, and finally benchmark ten representative baselines, including state-of-the-art models, pretrained PDE foundation models, and a traditional method. Experiments reveal significant discrepancies between simulated and real-world data, while showing that pretraining with simulated data consistently improves both accuracy and convergence. In this work, we hope to provide insights from real-world data, advancing scientific ML toward bridging the sim-to-real gap and real-world deployment. Our benchmark, datasets, and instructions are available at https://realpdebench.github.io/.

The last decade has seen tremendous progress in our ability to generate realistic-looking data, be it images, text, audio, or video. Here, we discuss the closely related problem of quantifying realism, that is, designing functions that can reliably tell realistic data from unrealistic data. This problem turns out to be significantly harder to solve and remains poorly understood, despite its prevalence in machine learning and recent breakthroughs in generative AI. Drawing on insights from algorithmic information theory, we discuss why this problem is challenging, why a good generative model alone is insufficient to solve it, and what a good solution would look like. In particular, we introduce the notion of a universal critic, which unlike adversarial critics does not require adversarial training. While universal critics are not immediately practical, they can serve both as a North Star for guiding practical implementations and as a tool for analyzing existing attempts to capture realism.

Simulation is an integral part in the process of developing autonomous vehicles and advantageous for training, validation, and verification of driving functions. Even though simulations come with a series of benefits compared to real-world experiments, various challenges still prevent virtual testing from entirely replacing physical test-drives. Our work provides an overview of these challenges with regard to different aspects and types of simulation and subsumes current trends to overcome them. We cover aspects around perception-, behavior- and content-realism as well as general hurdles in the domain of simulation. Among others, we observe a trend of data-driven, generative approaches and high-fidelity data synthesis to increasingly replace model-based simulation.

With the rapid growth of research in AI and robotics now producing over 10,000 papers annually it has become increasingly difficult for researchers to stay up to date. Fast evolving trends, the rise of interdisciplinary work, and the need to explore domains beyond one's expertise all contribute to this challenge. To address these issues, we propose a generalizable pipeline capable of systematically analyzing any research area: identifying emerging trends, uncovering cross domain opportunities, and offering concrete starting points for new inquiry. In this work, we present Real Deep Research (RDR) a comprehensive framework applied to the domains of AI and robotics, with a particular focus on foundation models and robotics advancements. We also briefly extend our analysis to other areas of science. The main paper details the construction of the RDR pipeline, while the appendix provides extensive results across each analyzed topic. We hope this work sheds light for researchers working in the field of AI and beyond.

This research delves into the construction and utilization of synthetic datasets, specifically within the telematics sphere, leveraging OpenAI's powerful language model, ChatGPT. Synthetic datasets present an effective solution to challenges pertaining to data privacy, scarcity, and control over variables - characteristics that make them particularly valuable for research pursuits. The utility of these datasets, however, largely depends on their quality, measured through the lenses of diversity, relevance, and coherence. To illustrate this data creation process, a hands-on case study is conducted, focusing on the generation of a synthetic telematics dataset. The experiment involved an iterative guidance of ChatGPT, progressively refining prompts and culminating in the creation of a comprehensive dataset for a hypothetical urban planning scenario in Columbus, Ohio. Upon generation, the synthetic dataset was subjected to an evaluation, focusing on the previously identified quality parameters and employing descriptive statistics and visualization techniques for a thorough analysis. Despite synthetic datasets not serving as perfect replacements for actual world data, their potential in specific use-cases, when executed with precision, is significant. This research underscores the potential of AI models like ChatGPT in enhancing data availability for complex sectors like telematics, thus paving the way for a myriad of new research opportunities.

With advances in generative AI, there is increasing work towards creating autonomous agents that can manage daily tasks by operating user interfaces (UIs). While prior research has studied the mechanics of how AI agents might navigate UIs and understand UI structure, the effects of agents and their autonomous actions-particularly those that may be risky or irreversible-remain under-explored. In this work, we investigate the real-world impacts and consequences of UI actions by AI agents. We began by developing a taxonomy of the impacts of UI actions through a series of workshops with domain experts. Following this, we conducted a data synthesis study to gather realistic UI screen traces and action data that users perceive as impactful. We then used our impact categories to annotate our collected data and data repurposed from existing UI navigation datasets. Our quantitative evaluations of different large language models (LLMs) and variants demonstrate how well different LLMs can understand the impacts of UI actions that might be taken by an agent. We show that our taxonomy enhances the reasoning capabilities of these LLMs for understanding the impacts of UI actions, but our findings also reveal significant gaps in their ability to reliably classify more nuanced or complex categories of impact.

In recent years there has been a tremendous surge in the general capabilities of AI systems, mainly fuelled by training foundation models on internetscale data. Nevertheless, the creation of openended, ever self-improving AI remains elusive. In this position paper, we argue that the ingredients are now in place to achieve openendedness in AI systems with respect to a human observer. Furthermore, we claim that such open-endedness is an essential property of any artificial superhuman intelligence (ASI). We begin by providing a concrete formal definition of open-endedness through the lens of novelty and learnability. We then illustrate a path towards ASI via open-ended systems built on top of foundation models, capable of making novel, humanrelevant discoveries. We conclude by examining the safety implications of generally-capable openended AI. We expect that open-ended foundation models will prove to be an increasingly fertile and safety-critical area of research in the near future.

Machine learning has achieved remarkable success in many applications. However, existing studies are largely based on the closed-world assumption, which assumes that the environment is stationary, and the model is fixed once deployed. In many real-world applications, this fundamental and rather naive assumption may not hold because an open environment is complex, dynamic, and full of unknowns. In such cases, rejecting unknowns, discovering novelties, and then incrementally learning them, could enable models to be safe and evolve continually as biological systems do. This paper provides a holistic view of open-world machine learning by investigating unknown rejection, novel class discovery, and class-incremental learning in a unified paradigm. The challenges, principles, and limitations of current methodologies are discussed in detail. Finally, we discuss several potential directions for future research. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive introduction to the emerging open-world machine learning paradigm, to help researchers build more powerful AI systems in their respective fields, and to promote the development of artificial general intelligence.

In the next few years, applications of Generative AI are expected to revolutionize a number of different areas, ranging from science & medicine to education. The potential for these seismic changes has triggered a lively debate about potential risks and resulted in calls for tighter regulation, in particular from some of the major tech companies who are leading in AI development. This regulation is likely to put at risk the budding field of open-source Generative AI. We argue for the responsible open sourcing of generative AI models in the near and medium term. To set the stage, we first introduce an AI openness taxonomy system and apply it to 40 current large language models. We then outline differential benefits and risks of open versus closed source AI and present potential risk mitigation, ranging from best practices to calls for technical and scientific contributions. We hope that this report will add a much needed missing voice to the current public discourse on near to mid-term AI safety and other societal impact.

We are on the threshold of a significant change in the way we view digital life, which will have a major effect on the physical world. Computers have increasingly emulated deceased human beings through growing awareness in the fields of artificial intelligence, big data, and machine learning, and have symbolically managed to overcome death with the help of technology. One thing is clear, though: now that there are proper and legitimate discussions happening about human immortality, we can be certain that the future is upon us. This article attempts to explain and challenge the ways in which digital immortality, in particular, has manifested itself. This paper summarizes the technological solutions, research findings and technical challenges of major researchers by reviewing the key technologies and general technical schemes in the field of digital human beings. The prospects of digital human beings are being investigated.