Daily Papers

Time series analysis is vital for numerous applications, and transformers have become increasingly prominent in this domain. Leading methods customize the transformer architecture from NLP and CV, utilizing a patching technique to convert continuous signals into segments. Yet, time series data are uniquely challenging due to significant distribution shifts and intrinsic noise levels. To address these two challenges,we introduce the Sparse Vector Quantized FFN-Free Transformer (Sparse-VQ). Our methodology capitalizes on a sparse vector quantization technique coupled with Reverse Instance Normalization (RevIN) to reduce noise impact and capture sufficient statistics for forecasting, serving as an alternative to the Feed-Forward layer (FFN) in the transformer architecture. Our FFN-free approach trims the parameter count, enhancing computational efficiency and reducing overfitting. Through evaluations across ten benchmark datasets, including the newly introduced CAISO dataset, Sparse-VQ surpasses leading models with a 7.84% and 4.17% decrease in MAE for univariate and multivariate time series forecasting, respectively. Moreover, it can be seamlessly integrated with existing transformer-based models to elevate their performance.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are often trained on vast amounts of undisclosed data, motivating the development of post-hoc Membership Inference Attacks (MIAs) to gain insight into their training data composition. However, in this paper, we identify inherent challenges in post-hoc MIA evaluation due to potential distribution shifts between collected member and non-member datasets. Using a simple bag-of-words classifier, we demonstrate that datasets used in recent post-hoc MIAs suffer from significant distribution shifts, in some cases achieving near-perfect distinction between members and non-members. This implies that previously reported high MIA performance may be largely attributable to these shifts rather than model memorization. We confirm that randomized, controlled setups eliminate such shifts and thus enable the development and fair evaluation of new MIAs. However, we note that such randomized setups are rarely available for the latest LLMs, making post-hoc data collection still required to infer membership for real-world LLMs. As a potential solution, we propose a Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) approach for post-hoc data collection, which substantially mitigates distribution shifts. Evaluating various MIA methods on this RDD setup yields performance barely above random guessing, in stark contrast to previously reported results. Overall, our findings highlight the challenges in accurately measuring LLM memorization and the need for careful experimental design in (post-hoc) membership inference tasks.

Insects represent half of all global biodiversity, yet many of the world's insects are disappearing, with severe implications for ecosystems and agriculture. Despite this crisis, data on insect diversity and abundance remain woefully inadequate, due to the scarcity of human experts and the lack of scalable tools for monitoring. Ecologists have started to adopt camera traps to record and study insects, and have proposed computer vision algorithms as an answer for scalable data processing. However, insect monitoring in the wild poses unique challenges that have not yet been addressed within computer vision, including the combination of long-tailed data, extremely similar classes, and significant distribution shifts. We provide the first large-scale machine learning benchmarks for fine-grained insect recognition, designed to match real-world tasks faced by ecologists. Our contributions include a curated dataset of images from citizen science platforms and museums, and an expert-annotated dataset drawn from automated camera traps across multiple continents, designed to test out-of-distribution generalization under field conditions. We train and evaluate a variety of baseline algorithms and introduce a combination of data augmentation techniques that enhance generalization across geographies and hardware setups. Code and datasets are made publicly available.

Large Language Model (LLM) has demonstrated significant ability in various Natural Language Processing tasks. However, their effectiveness is highly dependent on the phrasing of the task prompt, leading to research on automatic prompt optimization using labeled task data. We reveal that these prompt optimization techniques are vulnerable to distribution shifts such as subpopulation shifts, which are common for LLMs in real-world scenarios such as customer reviews analysis. In this light, we propose a new problem of robust prompt optimization for LLMs against distribution shifts, which requires the prompt optimized over the labeled source group can simultaneously generalize to an unlabeled target group. To solve this problem, we propose Generalized Prompt Optimization framework, which incorporates the unlabeled data from the target group into prompt optimization. Extensive experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework with significant performance improvement on the target group and comparable performance on the source group.

Recent studies indicate that large multimodal models (LMMs) are highly robust against natural distribution shifts, often surpassing previous baselines. Despite this, domain-specific adaptation is still necessary, particularly in specialized areas like healthcare. Due to the impracticality of fine-tuning LMMs given their vast parameter space, this work investigates in-context learning (ICL) as an effective alternative for enhancing LMMs' adaptability. We find that the success of ICL heavily relies on the choice of demonstration, mirroring challenges seen in large language models but introducing unique complexities for LMMs facing distribution shifts. Our study addresses this by evaluating an unsupervised ICL method, TopKNearestPR, which selects in-context examples through a nearest example search based on feature similarity. We uncover that its effectiveness is limited by the deficiencies of pre-trained vision encoders under distribution shift scenarios. To address these challenges, we propose InvariantSelectPR, a novel method leveraging Class-conditioned Contrastive Invariance (CCI) for more robust demonstration selection. Specifically, CCI enhances pre-trained vision encoders by improving their discriminative capabilities across different classes and ensuring invariance to domain-specific variations. This enhancement allows the encoders to effectively identify and retrieve the most informative examples, which are then used to guide LMMs in adapting to new query samples under varying distributions. Our experiments show that InvariantSelectPR substantially improves the adaptability of LMMs, achieving significant performance gains on benchmark datasets, with a 34.2%uparrow accuracy increase in 7-shot on Camelyon17 and 16.9%uparrow increase in 7-shot on HAM10000 compared to the baseline zero-shot performance.

Machine Learning Force Fields (MLFFs) are a promising alternative to expensive ab initio quantum mechanical molecular simulations. Given the diversity of chemical spaces that are of interest and the cost of generating new data, it is important to understand how MLFFs generalize beyond their training distributions. In order to characterize and better understand distribution shifts in MLFFs, we conduct diagnostic experiments on chemical datasets, revealing common shifts that pose significant challenges, even for large foundation models trained on extensive data. Based on these observations, we hypothesize that current supervised training methods inadequately regularize MLFFs, resulting in overfitting and learning poor representations of out-of-distribution systems. We then propose two new methods as initial steps for mitigating distribution shifts for MLFFs. Our methods focus on test-time refinement strategies that incur minimal computational cost and do not use expensive ab initio reference labels. The first strategy, based on spectral graph theory, modifies the edges of test graphs to align with graph structures seen during training. Our second strategy improves representations for out-of-distribution systems at test-time by taking gradient steps using an auxiliary objective, such as a cheap physical prior. Our test-time refinement strategies significantly reduce errors on out-of-distribution systems, suggesting that MLFFs are capable of and can move towards modeling diverse chemical spaces, but are not being effectively trained to do so. Our experiments establish clear benchmarks for evaluating the generalization capabilities of the next generation of MLFFs. Our code is available at https://tkreiman.github.io/projects/mlff_distribution_shifts/.

Practical object detection application can lose its effectiveness on image inputs with natural distribution shifts. This problem leads the research community to pay more attention on the robustness of detectors under Out-Of-Distribution (OOD) inputs. Existing works construct datasets to benchmark the detector's OOD robustness for a specific application scenario, e.g., Autonomous Driving. However, these datasets lack universality and are hard to benchmark general detectors built on common tasks such as COCO. To give a more comprehensive robustness assessment, we introduce COCO-O(ut-of-distribution), a test dataset based on COCO with 6 types of natural distribution shifts. COCO-O has a large distribution gap with training data and results in a significant 55.7% relative performance drop on a Faster R-CNN detector. We leverage COCO-O to conduct experiments on more than 100 modern object detectors to investigate if their improvements are credible or just over-fitting to the COCO test set. Unfortunately, most classic detectors in early years do not exhibit strong OOD generalization. We further study the robustness effect on recent breakthroughs of detector's architecture design, augmentation and pre-training techniques. Some empirical findings are revealed: 1) Compared with detection head or neck, backbone is the most important part for robustness; 2) An end-to-end detection transformer design brings no enhancement, and may even reduce robustness; 3) Large-scale foundation models have made a great leap on robust object detection. We hope our COCO-O could provide a rich testbed for robustness study of object detection. The dataset will be available at https://github.com/alibaba/easyrobust/tree/main/benchmarks/coco_o.

The problem of predicting node properties (e.g., node classes) in graphs has received significant attention due to its broad range of applications. Graphs from real-world datasets often evolve over time, with newly emerging edges and dynamically changing node properties, posing a significant challenge for this problem. In response, temporal graph neural networks (TGNNs) have been developed to predict dynamic node properties from a stream of emerging edges. However, our analysis reveals that most TGNN-based methods are (a) far less effective without proper node features and, due to their complex model architectures, (b) vulnerable to distribution shifts. In this paper, we propose SPLASH, a simple yet powerful method for predicting node properties on edge streams under distribution shifts. Our key contributions are as follows: (1) we propose feature augmentation methods and an automatic feature selection method for edge streams, which improve the effectiveness of TGNNs, (2) we propose a lightweight MLP-based TGNN architecture that is highly efficient and robust under distribution shifts, and (3) we conduct extensive experiments to evaluate the accuracy, efficiency, generalization, and qualitative performance of the proposed method and its competitors on dynamic node classification, dynamic anomaly detection, and node affinity prediction tasks across seven real-world datasets.

We address the challenge of detecting synthesized speech under distribution shifts -- arising from unseen synthesis methods, speakers, languages, or audio conditions -- relative to the training data. Few-shot learning methods are a promising way to tackle distribution shifts by rapidly adapting on the basis of a few in-distribution samples. We propose a self-attentive prototypical network to enable more robust few-shot adaptation. To evaluate our approach, we systematically compare the performance of traditional zero-shot detectors and the proposed few-shot detectors, carefully controlling training conditions to introduce distribution shifts at evaluation time. In conditions where distribution shifts hamper the zero-shot performance, our proposed few-shot adaptation technique can quickly adapt using as few as 10 in-distribution samples -- achieving upto 32% relative EER reduction on deepfakes in Japanese language and 20% relative reduction on ASVspoof 2021 Deepfake dataset.

Handling distribution shifts from training data, known as out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization, poses a significant challenge in the field of machine learning. While a pre-trained vision-language model like CLIP has demonstrated remarkable zero-shot performance, further adaptation of the model to downstream tasks leads to undesirable degradation for OOD data. In this work, we introduce Sparse Adaptation for Fine-Tuning (SAFT), a method that prevents fine-tuning from forgetting the general knowledge in the pre-trained model. SAFT only updates a small subset of important parameters whose gradient magnitude is large, while keeping the other parameters frozen. SAFT is straightforward to implement and conceptually simple. Extensive experiments show that with only 0.1% of the model parameters, SAFT can significantly improve the performance of CLIP. It consistently outperforms baseline methods across several benchmarks. On the few-shot learning benchmark of ImageNet and its variants, SAFT gives a gain of 5.15% on average over the conventional fine-tuning method in OOD settings.

The presence of distribution shifts poses a significant challenge for deploying modern machine learning models in real-world applications. This work focuses on the target shift problem in a regression setting (Zhang et al., 2013; Nguyen et al., 2016). More specifically, the target variable y (also known as the response variable), which is continuous, has different marginal distributions in the training source and testing domain, while the conditional distribution of features x given y remains the same. While most literature focuses on classification tasks with finite target space, the regression problem has an infinite dimensional target space, which makes many of the existing methods inapplicable. In this work, we show that the continuous target shift problem can be addressed by estimating the importance weight function from an ill-posed integral equation. We propose a nonparametric regularized approach named ReTaSA to solve the ill-posed integral equation and provide theoretical justification for the estimated importance weight function. The effectiveness of the proposed method has been demonstrated with extensive numerical studies on synthetic and real-world datasets.

Social media platforms, despite their value in promoting open discourse, are often exploited to spread harmful content. Current deep learning and natural language processing models used for detecting this harmful content overly rely on domain-specific terms affecting their capabilities to adapt to generalizable hate speech detection. This is because they tend to focus too narrowly on particular linguistic signals or the use of certain categories of words. Another significant challenge arises when platforms lack high-quality annotated data for training, leading to a need for cross-platform models that can adapt to different distribution shifts. Our research introduces a cross-platform hate speech detection model capable of being trained on one platform's data and generalizing to multiple unseen platforms. To achieve good generalizability across platforms, one way is to disentangle the input representations into invariant and platform-dependent features. We also argue that learning causal relationships, which remain constant across diverse environments, can significantly aid in understanding invariant representations in hate speech. By disentangling input into platform-dependent features (useful for predicting hate targets) and platform-independent features (used to predict the presence of hate), we learn invariant representations resistant to distribution shifts. These features are then used to predict hate speech across unseen platforms. Our extensive experiments across four platforms highlight our model's enhanced efficacy compared to existing state-of-the-art methods in detecting generalized hate speech.

In recent years, several efforts have been aimed at improving the robustness of vision models to domains and environments unseen during training. An important practical problem pertains to models deployed in a new geography that is under-represented in the training dataset, posing a direct challenge to fair and inclusive computer vision. In this paper, we study the problem of geographic robustness and make three main contributions. First, we introduce a large-scale dataset GeoNet for geographic adaptation containing benchmarks across diverse tasks like scene recognition (GeoPlaces), image classification (GeoImNet) and universal adaptation (GeoUniDA). Second, we investigate the nature of distribution shifts typical to the problem of geographic adaptation and hypothesize that the major source of domain shifts arise from significant variations in scene context (context shift), object design (design shift) and label distribution (prior shift) across geographies. Third, we conduct an extensive evaluation of several state-of-the-art unsupervised domain adaptation algorithms and architectures on GeoNet, showing that they do not suffice for geographical adaptation, and that large-scale pre-training using large vision models also does not lead to geographic robustness. Our dataset is publicly available at https://tarun005.github.io/GeoNet.

Contrastive Language-Image Pre-training (CLIP) models have shown significant potential, particularly in zero-shot classification across diverse distribution shifts. Building on existing evaluations of overall classification robustness, this work aims to provide a more comprehensive assessment of CLIP by introducing several new perspectives. First, we investigate their robustness to variations in specific visual factors. Second, we assess two critical safety objectives--confidence uncertainty and out-of-distribution detection--beyond mere classification accuracy. Third, we evaluate the finesse with which CLIP models bridge the image and text modalities. Fourth, we extend our examination to 3D awareness in CLIP models, moving beyond traditional 2D image understanding. Finally, we explore the interaction between vision and language encoders within modern large multimodal models (LMMs) that utilize CLIP as the visual backbone, focusing on how this interaction impacts classification robustness. In each aspect, we consider the impact of six factors on CLIP models: model architecture, training distribution, training set size, fine-tuning, contrastive loss, and test-time prompts. Our study uncovers several previously unknown insights into CLIP. For instance, the architecture of the visual encoder in CLIP plays a significant role in their robustness against 3D corruption. CLIP models tend to exhibit a bias towards shape when making predictions. Moreover, this bias tends to diminish after fine-tuning on ImageNet. Vision-language models like LLaVA, leveraging the CLIP vision encoder, could exhibit benefits in classification performance for challenging categories over CLIP alone. Our findings are poised to offer valuable guidance for enhancing the robustness and reliability of CLIP models.

Dataset distillation aims to synthesize a smaller, representative dataset that preserves the essential properties of the original data, enabling efficient model training with reduced computational resources. Prior work has primarily focused on improving the alignment or matching process between original and synthetic data, or on enhancing the efficiency of distilling large datasets. In this work, we introduce {bf C}ommittee {bf V}oting for {bf D}ataset {bf D}istillation (CV-DD), a novel and orthogonal approach that leverages the collective wisdom of multiple models or experts to create high-quality distilled datasets. We start by showing how to establish a strong baseline that already achieves state-of-the-art accuracy through leveraging recent advancements and thoughtful adjustments in model design and optimization processes. By integrating distributions and predictions from a committee of models while generating high-quality soft labels, our method captures a wider spectrum of data features, reduces model-specific biases and the adverse effects of distribution shifts, leading to significant improvements in generalization. This voting-based strategy not only promotes diversity and robustness within the distilled dataset but also significantly reduces overfitting, resulting in improved performance on post-eval tasks. Extensive experiments across various datasets and IPCs (images per class) demonstrate that Committee Voting leads to more reliable and adaptable distilled data compared to single/multi-model distillation methods, demonstrating its potential for efficient and accurate dataset distillation. Code is available at: https://github.com/Jiacheng8/CV-DD.

We conduct a large empirical evaluation to investigate the landscape of distributional robustness in question answering. Our investigation spans over 350 models and 16 question answering datasets, including a diverse set of architectures, model sizes, and adaptation methods (e.g., fine-tuning, adapter tuning, in-context learning, etc.). We find that, in many cases, model variations do not affect robustness and in-distribution performance alone determines out-of-distribution performance. Moreover, our findings indicate that i) zero-shot and in-context learning methods are more robust to distribution shifts than fully fine-tuned models; ii) few-shot prompt fine-tuned models exhibit better robustness than few-shot fine-tuned span prediction models; iii) parameter-efficient and robustness enhancing training methods provide no significant robustness improvements. In addition, we publicly release all evaluations to encourage researchers to further analyze robustness trends for question answering models.

Tabular data is widely utilized in various machine learning tasks. Current tabular learning research predominantly focuses on closed environments, while in real-world applications, open environments are often encountered, where distribution and feature shifts occur, leading to significant degradation in model performance. Previous research has primarily concentrated on mitigating distribution shifts, whereas feature shifts, a distinctive and unexplored challenge of tabular data, have garnered limited attention. To this end, this paper conducts the first comprehensive study on feature shifts in tabular data and introduces the first tabular feature-shift benchmark (TabFSBench). TabFSBench evaluates impacts of four distinct feature-shift scenarios on four tabular model categories across various datasets and assesses the performance of large language models (LLMs) and tabular LLMs in the tabular benchmark for the first time. Our study demonstrates three main observations: (1) most tabular models have the limited applicability in feature-shift scenarios; (2) the shifted feature set importance has a linear relationship with model performance degradation; (3) model performance in closed environments correlates with feature-shift performance. Future research direction is also explored for each observation. Benchmark: https://github.com/LAMDASZ-ML/TabFSBench.

Sensor-based human activity recognition (HAR) mines activity patterns from the time-series sensory data. In realistic scenarios, variations across individuals, devices, environments, and time introduce significant distributional shifts for the same activities. Recent efforts attempt to solve this challenge by applying or adapting existing out-of-distribution (OOD) algorithms, but only in certain distribution shift scenarios (e.g., cross-device or cross-position), lacking comprehensive insights on the effectiveness of these algorithms. For instance, is OOD necessary to HAR? Which OOD algorithm performs the best? In this paper, we fill this gap by proposing HAROOD, a comprehensive benchmark for HAR in OOD settings. We define 4 OOD scenarios: cross-person, cross-position, cross-dataset, and cross-time, and build a testbed covering 6 datasets, 16 comparative methods (implemented with CNN-based and Transformer-based architectures), and two model selection protocols. Then, we conduct extensive experiments and present several findings for future research, e.g., no single method consistently outperforms others, highlighting substantial opportunity for advancement. Our codebase is highly modular and easy to extend for new datasets, algorithms, comparisons, and analysis, with the hope to facilitate the research in OOD-based HAR. Our implementation is released and can be found at https://github.com/AIFrontierLab/HAROOD.

Synthetic data has been proposed as a solution to address the issue of high-quality data scarcity in the training of large language models (LLMs). Studies have shown that synthetic data can effectively improve the performance of LLMs on downstream benchmarks. However, despite its potential benefits, our analysis suggests that there may be inherent flaws in synthetic data. The uniform format of synthetic data can lead to pattern overfitting and cause significant shifts in the output distribution, thereby reducing the model's instruction-following capabilities. Our work delves into these specific flaws associated with question-answer (Q-A) pairs, a prevalent type of synthetic data, and presents a method based on unlearning techniques to mitigate these flaws. The empirical results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, which can reverse the instruction-following issues caused by pattern overfitting without compromising performance on benchmarks at relatively low cost. Our work has yielded key insights into the effective use of synthetic data, aiming to promote more robust and efficient LLM training.

We propose a novel framework for incorporating unlabeled data into semi-supervised classification problems, where scenarios involving the minimization of either i) adversarially robust or ii) non-robust loss functions have been considered. Notably, we allow the unlabeled samples to deviate slightly (in total variation sense) from the in-domain distribution. The core idea behind our framework is to combine Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) with self-supervised training. As a result, we also leverage efficient polynomial-time algorithms for the training stage. From a theoretical standpoint, we apply our framework on the classification problem of a mixture of two Gaussians in R^d, where in addition to the m independent and labeled samples from the true distribution, a set of n (usually with ngg m) out of domain and unlabeled samples are given as well. Using only the labeled data, it is known that the generalization error can be bounded by proptoleft(d/mright)^{1/2}. However, using our method on both isotropic and non-isotropic Gaussian mixture models, one can derive a new set of analytically explicit and non-asymptotic bounds which show substantial improvement on the generalization error compared to ERM. Our results underscore two significant insights: 1) out-of-domain samples, even when unlabeled, can be harnessed to narrow the generalization gap, provided that the true data distribution adheres to a form of the ``cluster assumption", and 2) the semi-supervised learning paradigm can be regarded as a special case of our framework when there are no distributional shifts. We validate our claims through experiments conducted on a variety of synthetic and real-world datasets.

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable progress in code generation, yet their true programming competence remains underexplored. We introduce the Code Triangle framework, which systematically evaluates LLMs across three fundamental dimensions: editorial analysis, code implementation, and test case generation. Through extensive experiments on competitive programming benchmarks, we reveal that while LLMs can form a self-consistent system across these dimensions, their solutions often lack the diversity and robustness of human programmers. We identify a significant distribution shift between model cognition and human expertise, with model errors tending to cluster due to training data biases and limited reasoning transfer. Our study demonstrates that incorporating human-generated editorials, solutions, and diverse test cases, as well as leveraging model mixtures, can substantially enhance both the performance and robustness of LLMs. Furthermore, we reveal both the consistency and inconsistency in the cognition of LLMs that may facilitate self-reflection and self-improvement, providing a potential direction for developing more powerful coding models.

To obtain a near-optimal policy with fewer interactions in Reinforcement Learning (RL), a promising approach involves the combination of offline RL, which enhances sample efficiency by leveraging offline datasets, and online RL, which explores informative transitions by interacting with the environment. Offline-to-Online (O2O) RL provides a paradigm for improving an offline trained agent within limited online interactions. However, due to the significant distribution shift between online experiences and offline data, most offline RL algorithms suffer from performance drops and fail to achieve stable policy improvement in O2O adaptation. To address this problem, we propose the Robust Offline-to-Online (RO2O) algorithm, designed to enhance offline policies through uncertainty and smoothness, and to mitigate the performance drop in online adaptation. Specifically, RO2O incorporates Q-ensemble for uncertainty penalty and adversarial samples for policy and value smoothness, which enable RO2O to maintain a consistent learning procedure in online adaptation without requiring special changes to the learning objective. Theoretical analyses in linear MDPs demonstrate that the uncertainty and smoothness lead to a tighter optimality bound in O2O against distribution shift. Experimental results illustrate the superiority of RO2O in facilitating stable offline-to-online learning and achieving significant improvement with limited online interactions.

Continual learning (CL) aims to continually accumulate knowledge from a non-stationary data stream without catastrophic forgetting of learned knowledge, requiring a balance between stability and adaptability. Relying on the generalizable representation in pre-trained models (PTMs), PTM-based CL methods perform effective continual adaptation on downstream tasks by adding learnable adapters or prompts upon the frozen PTMs. However, many existing PTM-based CL methods use restricted adaptation on a fixed set of these modules to avoid forgetting, suffering from limited CL ability. Periodically adding task-specific modules results in linear model growth rate and impaired knowledge reuse. We propose Self-Expansion of pre-trained models with Modularized Adaptation (SEMA), a novel approach to enhance the control of stability-plasticity balance in PTM-based CL. SEMA automatically decides to reuse or add adapter modules on demand in CL, depending on whether significant distribution shift that cannot be handled is detected at different representation levels. We design modular adapter consisting of a functional adapter and a representation descriptor. The representation descriptors are trained as a distribution shift indicator and used to trigger self-expansion signals. For better composing the adapters, an expandable weighting router is learned jointly for mixture of adapter outputs. SEMA enables better knowledge reuse and sub-linear expansion rate. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed self-expansion method, achieving state-of-the-art performance compared to PTM-based CL methods without memory rehearsal. Code is available at https://github.com/huiyiwang01/SEMA-CL.

A common practice in deep learning involves training large neural networks on massive datasets to achieve high accuracy across various domains and tasks. While this approach works well in many application areas, it often fails drastically when processing data from a new modality with a significant distribution shift from the data used to pre-train the model. This paper focuses on adapting a large object detection model trained on RGB images to new data extracted from IR images with a substantial modality shift. We propose Modality Translator (ModTr) as an alternative to the common approach of fine-tuning a large model to the new modality. ModTr adapts the IR input image with a small transformation network trained to directly minimize the detection loss. The original RGB model can then work on the translated inputs without any further changes or fine-tuning to its parameters. Experimental results on translating from IR to RGB images on two well-known datasets show that our simple approach provides detectors that perform comparably or better than standard fine-tuning, without forgetting the knowledge of the original model. This opens the door to a more flexible and efficient service-based detection pipeline, where a unique and unaltered server, such as an RGB detector, runs constantly while being queried by different modalities, such as IR with the corresponding translations model. Our code is available at: https://github.com/heitorrapela/ModTr.

Visual model-based RL methods typically encode image observations into low-dimensional representations in a manner that does not eliminate redundant information. This leaves them susceptible to spurious variations -- changes in task-irrelevant components such as background distractors or lighting conditions. In this paper, we propose a visual model-based RL method that learns a latent representation resilient to such spurious variations. Our training objective encourages the representation to be maximally predictive of dynamics and reward, while constraining the information flow from the observation to the latent representation. We demonstrate that this objective significantly bolsters the resilience of visual model-based RL methods to visual distractors, allowing them to operate in dynamic environments. We then show that while the learned encoder is resilient to spirious variations, it is not invariant under significant distribution shift. To address this, we propose a simple reward-free alignment procedure that enables test time adaptation of the encoder. This allows for quick adaptation to widely differing environments without having to relearn the dynamics and policy. Our effort is a step towards making model-based RL a practical and useful tool for dynamic, diverse domains. We show its effectiveness in simulation benchmarks with significant spurious variations as well as a real-world egocentric navigation task with noisy TVs in the background. Videos and code at https://zchuning.github.io/repo-website/.

Graph-based malware classifiers can achieve over 94% accuracy on standard Android datasets, yet we find they suffer accuracy drops of up to 45% when evaluated on previously unseen malware variants from the same family - a scenario where strong generalization would typically be expected. This highlights a key limitation in existing approaches: both the model architectures and their structure-only representations often fail to capture deeper semantic patterns. In this work, we propose a robust semantic enrichment framework that enhances function call graphs with contextual features, including function-level metadata and, when available, code embeddings derived from large language models. The framework is designed to operate under real-world constraints where feature availability is inconsistent, and supports flexible integration of semantic signals. To evaluate generalization under realistic domain and temporal shifts, we introduce two new benchmarks: MalNet-Tiny-Common and MalNet-Tiny-Distinct, constructed using malware family partitioning to simulate cross-family generalization and evolving threat behavior. Experiments across multiple graph neural network backbones show that our method improves classification performance by up to 8% under distribution shift and consistently enhances robustness when integrated with adaptation-based methods. These results offer a practical path toward building resilient malware detection systems in evolving threat environments.

Detecting prompt injection and jailbreak attacks is critical for deploying LLM-based agents safely. As agents increasingly process untrusted data from emails, documents, tool outputs, and external APIs, robust attack detection becomes essential. Yet current evaluation practices and production systems have fundamental limitations. We present a comprehensive analysis using a diverse benchmark of 18 datasets spanning harmful requests, jailbreaks, indirect prompt injections, and extraction attacks. We propose Leave-One-Dataset-Out (LODO) evaluation to measure true out-of-distribution generalization, revealing that the standard practice of train-test splits from the same dataset sources severely overestimates performance: aggregate metrics show an 8.4 percentage point AUC inflation, but per-dataset gaps range from 1% to 25% accuracy-exposing heterogeneous failure modes. To understand why classifiers fail to generalize, we analyze Sparse Auto-Encoder (SAE) feature coefficients across LODO folds, finding that 28% of top features are dataset-dependent shortcuts whose class signal depends on specific dataset compositions rather than semantic content. We systematically compare production guardrails (PromptGuard 2, LlamaGuard) and LLM-as-judge approaches on our benchmark, finding all three fail on indirect attacks targeting agents (7-37% detection) and that PromptGuard 2 and LlamaGuard cannot evaluate agentic tool injection due to architectural limitations. Finally, we show that LODO-stable SAE features provide more reliable explanations for classifier decisions by filtering dataset artifacts. We release our evaluation framework at https://github.com/maxf-zn/prompt-mining to establish LODO as the appropriate protocol for prompt attack detection research.

Selecting an effective training signal for machine learning tasks is difficult: expert annotations are expensive, and crowd-sourced annotations may not be reliable. Recent work has demonstrated that learning from a distribution over labels acquired from crowd annotations can be effective both for performance and uncertainty estimation. However, this has mainly been studied using a limited set of soft-labeling methods in an in-domain setting. Additionally, no one method has been shown to consistently perform well across tasks, making it difficult to know a priori which to choose. To fill these gaps, this paper provides the first large-scale empirical study on learning from crowd labels in the out-of-domain setting, systematically analyzing 8 soft-labeling methods on 4 language and vision tasks. Additionally, we propose to aggregate soft-labels via a simple average in order to achieve consistent performance across tasks. We demonstrate that this yields classifiers with improved predictive uncertainty estimation in most settings while maintaining consistent raw performance compared to learning from individual soft-labeling methods or taking a majority vote of the annotations. We additionally highlight that in regimes with abundant or minimal training data, the selection of soft labeling method is less important, while for highly subjective labels and moderate amounts of training data, aggregation yields significant improvements in uncertainty estimation over individual methods. Code can be found at https://github.com/copenlu/aggregating-crowd-annotations-ood.

Pre-trained language models (PLMs) have become a prevalent technique in deep learning for code, utilizing a two-stage pre-training and fine-tuning procedure to acquire general knowledge about code and specialize in a variety of downstream tasks. However, the dynamic nature of software codebases poses a challenge to the effectiveness and robustness of PLMs. In particular, world-realistic scenarios potentially lead to significant differences between the distribution of the pre-training and test data, i.e., distribution shift, resulting in a degradation of the PLM's performance on downstream tasks. In this paper, we stress the need for adapting PLMs of code to software data whose distribution changes over time, a crucial problem that has been overlooked in previous works. The motivation of this work is to consider the PLM in a non-stationary environment, where fine-tuning data evolves over time according to a software evolution scenario. Specifically, we design a scenario where the model needs to learn from a stream of programs containing new, unseen APIs over time. We study two widely used PLM architectures, i.e., a GPT2 decoder and a RoBERTa encoder, on two downstream tasks, API call and API usage prediction. We demonstrate that the most commonly used fine-tuning technique from prior work is not robust enough to handle the dynamic nature of APIs, leading to the loss of previously acquired knowledge i.e., catastrophic forgetting. To address these issues, we implement five continual learning approaches, including replay-based and regularization-based methods. Our findings demonstrate that utilizing these straightforward methods effectively mitigates catastrophic forgetting in PLMs across both downstream tasks while achieving comparable or superior performance.

Distribution shift presents a significant challenge in machine learning, where models often underperform during the test stage when faced with a different distribution than the one they were trained on. This paper focuses on domain shifts, which occur when the model is applied to new domains that are different from the ones it was trained on, and propose a new approach called D^3G. Unlike previous methods that aim to learn a single model that is domain invariant, D^3G leverages domain similarities based on domain metadata to learn domain-specific models. Concretely, D^3G learns a set of training-domain-specific functions during the training stage and reweights them based on domain relations during the test stage. These domain relations can be directly obtained and learned from domain metadata. Under mild assumptions, we theoretically prove that using domain relations to reweight training-domain-specific functions achieves stronger out-of-domain generalization compared to the conventional averaging approach. Empirically, we evaluate the effectiveness of D^3G using real-world datasets for tasks such as temperature regression, land use classification, and molecule-protein binding affinity prediction. Our results show that D^3G consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods.

Language models (LMs) may lead their users to make suboptimal downstream decisions when they confidently hallucinate. This issue can be mitigated by having the LM verbally convey the probability that its claims are correct, but existing models cannot produce text with calibrated confidence statements. Through the lens of decision-making, we formalize linguistic calibration for long-form generations: an LM is linguistically calibrated if its generations enable its users to make calibrated probabilistic predictions. This definition enables a training framework where a supervised finetuning step bootstraps an LM to emit long-form generations with confidence statements such as "I estimate a 30% chance of..." or "I am certain that...", followed by a reinforcement learning step which rewards generations that enable a user to provide calibrated answers to related questions. We linguistically calibrate Llama 2 7B and find in automated and human evaluations of long-form generations that it is significantly more calibrated than strong finetuned factuality baselines with comparable accuracy. These findings generalize under distribution shift on question-answering and under a significant task shift to person biography generation. Our results demonstrate that long-form generations may be calibrated end-to-end by constructing an objective in the space of the predictions that users make in downstream decision-making.

Learning visual representations with interpretable features, i.e., disentangled representations, remains a challenging problem. Existing methods demonstrate some success but are hard to apply to large-scale vision datasets like ImageNet. In this work, we propose a simple post-processing framework to disentangle content and style in learned representations from pre-trained vision models. We model the pre-trained features probabilistically as linearly entangled combinations of the latent content and style factors and develop a simple disentanglement algorithm based on the probabilistic model. We show that the method provably disentangles content and style features and verify its efficacy empirically. Our post-processed features yield significant domain generalization performance improvements when the distribution shift occurs due to style changes or style-related spurious correlations.

Training data is at the core of any successful text-to-image models. The quality and descriptiveness of image text are crucial to a model's performance. Given the noisiness and inconsistency in web-scraped datasets, recent works shifted towards synthetic training captions. While this setup is generally believed to produce more capable models, current literature does not provide any insights into its design choices. This study closes this gap by systematically investigating how different synthetic captioning strategies impact the downstream performance of text-to-image models. Our experiments demonstrate that dense, high-quality captions enhance text alignment but may introduce trade-offs in output aesthetics and diversity. Conversely, captions of randomized lengths yield balanced improvements across aesthetics and alignment without compromising sample diversity. We also demonstrate that varying caption distributions introduce significant shifts in the output bias of a trained model. Our findings underscore the importance of caption design in achieving optimal model performance and provide practical insights for more effective training data strategies in text-to-image generation.

With a broad range of emerging applications in 6G networks, wireless traffic prediction has become a critical component of network management. However, the dynamically shifting distribution of wireless traffic in non-stationary 6G networks presents significant challenges to achieving accurate and stable predictions. Motivated by recent advancements in Generative AI (GAI)-enabled 6G networks, this paper proposes a novel self-refined Large Language Model (LLM) for wireless traffic prediction, namely TrafficLLM, through in-context learning without parameter fine-tuning or model training. The proposed TrafficLLM harnesses the powerful few-shot learning abilities of LLMs to enhance the scalability of traffic prediction in dynamically changing wireless environments. Specifically, our proposed TrafficLLM embraces an LLM to iteratively refine its predictions through a three-step process: traffic prediction, feedback generation, and prediction refinement. Initially, the proposed TrafficLLM conducts traffic predictions using task-specific demonstration prompts. Recognizing that LLMs may generate incorrect predictions on the first attempt, we subsequently incorporate feedback demonstration prompts designed to provide multifaceted and valuable feedback related to these initial predictions. Following this comprehensive feedback, our proposed TrafficLLM introduces refinement demonstration prompts, enabling the same LLM to further refine its predictions and thereby enhance prediction performance. The evaluations on two realistic datasets demonstrate that the proposed TrafficLLM outperforms state-of-the-art methods with performance improvements of 23.17% and 17.09%, respectively.

Recent research on robustness has revealed significant performance gaps between neural image classifiers trained on datasets that are similar to the test set, and those that are from a naturally shifted distribution, such as sketches, paintings, and animations of the object categories observed during training. Prior work focuses on reducing this gap by designing engineered augmentations of training data or through unsupervised pretraining of a single large model on massive in-the-wild training datasets scraped from the Internet. However, the notion of a dataset is also undergoing a paradigm shift in recent years. With drastic improvements in the quality, ease-of-use, and access to modern generative models, generated data is pervading the web. In this light, we study the question: How do these generated datasets influence the natural robustness of image classifiers? We find that Imagenet classifiers trained on real data augmented with generated data achieve higher accuracy and effective robustness than standard training and popular augmentation strategies in the presence of natural distribution shifts. We analyze various factors influencing these results, including the choice of conditioning strategies and the amount of generated data. Lastly, we introduce and analyze an evolving generated dataset, ImageNet-G-v1, to better benchmark the design, utility, and critique of standalone generated datasets for robust and trustworthy machine learning. The code and datasets are available at https://github.com/Hritikbansal/generative-robustness.

The widespread distribution of Large Language Models (LLMs) through public platforms like Hugging Face introduces significant security challenges. While these platforms perform basic security scans, they often fail to detect subtle manipulations within the embedding layer. This work identifies a novel class of deployment phase attacks that exploit this vulnerability by injecting imperceptible perturbations directly into the embedding layer outputs without modifying model weights or input text. These perturbations, though statistically benign, systematically bypass safety alignment mechanisms and induce harmful behaviors during inference. We propose Search based Embedding Poisoning(SEP), a practical, model agnostic framework that introduces carefully optimized perturbations into embeddings associated with high risk tokens. SEP leverages a predictable linear transition in model responses, from refusal to harmful output to semantic deviation to identify a narrow perturbation window that evades alignment safeguards. Evaluated across six aligned LLMs, SEP achieves an average attack success rate of 96.43% while preserving benign task performance and evading conventional detection mechanisms. Our findings reveal a critical oversight in deployment security and emphasize the urgent need for embedding level integrity checks in future LLM defense strategies.

Detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) samples is crucial for ensuring the safety of machine learning systems and has shaped the field of OOD detection. Meanwhile, several other problems are closely related to OOD detection, including anomaly detection (AD), novelty detection (ND), open set recognition (OSR), and outlier detection (OD). To unify these problems, a generalized OOD detection framework was proposed, taxonomically categorizing these five problems. However, Vision Language Models (VLMs) such as CLIP have significantly changed the paradigm and blurred the boundaries between these fields, again confusing researchers. In this survey, we first present a generalized OOD detection v2, encapsulating the evolution of AD, ND, OSR, OOD detection, and OD in the VLM era. Our framework reveals that, with some field inactivity and integration, the demanding challenges have become OOD detection and AD. In addition, we also highlight the significant shift in the definition, problem settings, and benchmarks; we thus feature a comprehensive review of the methodology for OOD detection, including the discussion over other related tasks to clarify their relationship to OOD detection. Finally, we explore the advancements in the emerging Large Vision Language Model (LVLM) era, such as GPT-4V. We conclude this survey with open challenges and future directions.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are predominantly trained and aligned in ways that reinforce Western-centric epistemologies and socio-cultural norms, leading to cultural homogenization and limiting their ability to reflect global civilizational plurality. Existing benchmarking frameworks fail to adequately capture this bias, as they rely on rigid, closed-form assessments that overlook the complexity of cultural inclusivity. To address this, we introduce WorldView-Bench, a benchmark designed to evaluate Global Cultural Inclusivity (GCI) in LLMs by analyzing their ability to accommodate diverse worldviews. Our approach is grounded in the Multiplex Worldview proposed by Senturk et al., which distinguishes between Uniplex models, reinforcing cultural homogenization, and Multiplex models, which integrate diverse perspectives. WorldView-Bench measures Cultural Polarization, the exclusion of alternative perspectives, through free-form generative evaluation rather than conventional categorical benchmarks. We implement applied multiplexity through two intervention strategies: (1) Contextually-Implemented Multiplex LLMs, where system prompts embed multiplexity principles, and (2) Multi-Agent System (MAS)-Implemented Multiplex LLMs, where multiple LLM agents representing distinct cultural perspectives collaboratively generate responses. Our results demonstrate a significant increase in Perspectives Distribution Score (PDS) entropy from 13% at baseline to 94% with MAS-Implemented Multiplex LLMs, alongside a shift toward positive sentiment (67.7%) and enhanced cultural balance. These findings highlight the potential of multiplex-aware AI evaluation in mitigating cultural bias in LLMs, paving the way for more inclusive and ethically aligned AI systems.

Medical imaging datasets often vary due to differences in acquisition protocols, patient demographics, and imaging devices. These variations in data distribution, known as domain shift, present a significant challenge in adapting imaging analysis models for practical healthcare applications. Most current domain adaptation (DA) approaches aim either to align the distributions between the source and target domains or to learn an invariant feature space that generalizes well across all domains. However, both strategies require access to a sufficient number of examples, though not necessarily annotated, from the test domain during training. This limitation hinders the widespread deployment of models in clinical settings, where target domain data may only be accessible in real time. In this work, we introduce HyDA, a novel hypernetwork framework that leverages domain characteristics rather than suppressing them, enabling dynamic adaptation at inference time. Specifically, HyDA learns implicit domain representations and uses them to adjust model parameters on-the-fly, effectively interpolating to unseen domains. We validate HyDA on two clinically relevant applications - MRI brain age prediction and chest X-ray pathology classification - demonstrating its ability to generalize across tasks and modalities. Our code is available at TBD.

LiDAR place recognition approaches based on deep learning suffer a significant degradation in performance when there is a shift between the distribution of the training and testing datasets, with re-training often required to achieve top performance. However, obtaining accurate ground truth on new environments can be prohibitively expensive, especially in complex or GPS-deprived environments. To address this issue we propose GeoAdapt, which introduces a novel auxiliary classification head to generate pseudo-labels for re-training on unseen environments in a self-supervised manner. GeoAdapt uses geometric consistency as a prior to improve the robustness of our generated pseudo-labels against domain shift, improving the performance and reliability of our Test-Time Adaptation approach. Comprehensive experiments show that GeoAdapt significantly boosts place recognition performance across moderate to severe domain shifts, and is competitive with fully supervised test-time adaptation approaches. Our code will be available at https://github.com/csiro-robotics/GeoAdapt.

We study the ability of transformer-based language models (LMs) to understand social media language. Social media (SM) language is distinct from standard written language, yet existing benchmarks fall short of capturing LM performance in this socially, economically, and politically important domain. We quantify the degree to which social media language differs from conventional language and conclude that the difference is significant both in terms of token distribution and rate of linguistic shift. Next, we introduce a new benchmark for Social MedIa Language Evaluation (SMILE) that covers four SM platforms and eleven tasks. Finally, we show that learning a tokenizer and pretraining on a mix of social media and conventional language yields an LM that outperforms the best similar-sized alternative by 4.2 points on the overall SMILE score.

A distribution shift can have fundamental consequences such as signaling a change in the operating environment or significantly reducing the accuracy of downstream models. Thus, understanding distribution shifts is critical for examining and hopefully mitigating the effect of such a shift. Most prior work focuses on merely detecting if a shift has occurred and assumes any detected shift can be understood and handled appropriately by a human operator. We hope to aid in these manual mitigation tasks by explaining the distribution shift using interpretable transportation maps from the original distribution to the shifted one. We derive our interpretable mappings from a relaxation of optimal transport, where the candidate mappings are restricted to a set of interpretable mappings. We then inspect multiple quintessential use-cases of distribution shift in real-world tabular, text, and image datasets to showcase how our explanatory mappings provide a better balance between detail and interpretability than baseline explanations by both visual inspection and our PercentExplained metric.

Federated Learning (FL) is a machine learning paradigm that safeguards privacy by retaining client data on edge devices. However, optimizing FL in practice can be challenging due to the diverse and heterogeneous nature of the learning system. Though recent research has focused on improving the optimization of FL when distribution shifts occur among clients, ensuring global performance when multiple types of distribution shifts occur simultaneously among clients -- such as feature distribution shift, label distribution shift, and concept shift -- remain under-explored. In this paper, we identify the learning challenges posed by the simultaneous occurrence of diverse distribution shifts and propose a clustering principle to overcome these challenges. Through our research, we find that existing methods fail to address the clustering principle. Therefore, we propose a novel clustering algorithm framework, dubbed as FedRC, which adheres to our proposed clustering principle by incorporating a bi-level optimization problem and a novel objective function. Extensive experiments demonstrate that FedRC significantly outperforms other SOTA cluster-based FL methods. Our code is available at https://github.com/LINs-lab/FedRC.

When deploying machine learning systems to the wild, it is highly desirable for them to effectively leverage prior knowledge to the unfamiliar domain while also firing alarms to anomalous inputs. In order to address these requirements, Universal Domain Adaptation (UniDA) has emerged as a novel research area in computer vision, focusing on achieving both adaptation ability and robustness (i.e., the ability to detect out-of-distribution samples). While UniDA has led significant progress in computer vision, its application on language input still needs to be explored despite its feasibility. In this paper, we propose a comprehensive benchmark for natural language that offers thorough viewpoints of the model's generalizability and robustness. Our benchmark encompasses multiple datasets with varying difficulty levels and characteristics, including temporal shifts and diverse domains. On top of our testbed, we validate existing UniDA methods from computer vision and state-of-the-art domain adaptation techniques from NLP literature, yielding valuable findings: We observe that UniDA methods originally designed for image input can be effectively transferred to the natural language domain while also underscoring the effect of adaptation difficulty in determining the model's performance.

Traditional cross-domain tasks, including domain adaptation and domain generalization, rely heavily on training model by source domain data. With the recent advance of vision-language models (VLMs), viewed as natural source models, the cross-domain task changes to directly adapt the pre-trained source model to arbitrary target domains equipped with prior domain knowledge, and we name this task Adaptive Domain Generalization (ADG). However, current cross-domain datasets have many limitations, such as unrealistic domains, unclear domain definitions, and the inability to fine-grained domain decomposition, which drives us to establish a novel dataset DomainVerse for ADG. Benefiting from the introduced hierarchical definition of domain shifts, DomainVerse consists of about 0.5 million images from 390 fine-grained realistic domains. With the help of the constructed DomainVerse and VLMs, we propose two methods called Domain CLIP and Domain++ CLIP for tuning-free adaptive domain generalization. Extensive and comprehensive experiments demonstrate the significance of the dataset and the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

Machine learning models frequently experience performance drops under distribution shifts. The underlying cause of such shifts may be multiple simultaneous factors such as changes in data quality, differences in specific covariate distributions, or changes in the relationship between label and features. When a model does fail during deployment, attributing performance change to these factors is critical for the model developer to identify the root cause and take mitigating actions. In this work, we introduce the problem of attributing performance differences between environments to distribution shifts in the underlying data generating mechanisms. We formulate the problem as a cooperative game where the players are distributions. We define the value of a set of distributions to be the change in model performance when only this set of distributions has changed between environments, and derive an importance weighting method for computing the value of an arbitrary set of distributions. The contribution of each distribution to the total performance change is then quantified as its Shapley value. We demonstrate the correctness and utility of our method on synthetic, semi-synthetic, and real-world case studies, showing its effectiveness in attributing performance changes to a wide range of distribution shifts.

Large vision language models, such as CLIPs, have revolutionized modern machine learning. CLIPs have demonstrated great generalizability under distribution shifts, supported by an increasing body of literature. However, the evaluation datasets for CLIPs are variations primarily designed for ImageNet benchmarks, which may not fully reflect the extent to which CLIPs, e.g., pre-trained on LAION, robust to spurious correlations. To bridge the gap, we collect a real-world dataset called CounterAnimal that contains realistic spurious features found in animal photos. CounterAnimal consists of a) the common group: comprising animals on common backgrounds, and b) the counter group: including animals on unusual backgrounds. The performance drops from the common to counter groups quantify the reliance of models on spurious features (i.e., backgrounds) to predict the animals. We find that CLIPs trained on either LAION or the OpenAI data exhibit notable performance drops on the counter group. Surprisingly, we observe that single-modal models trained on ImageNet are more robust than CLIPs. We provide both theoretical and empirical explanations for why CLIPs still learn spurious features. Our findings suggest that distribution shifts remain an open problem for CLIPs, and one needs to be cautious about test setups when evaluating foundation models pre-trained on a significantly different scale and distribution.

Machine learning (ML)-based malware detection systems often fail to account for the dynamic nature of real-world training and test data distributions. In practice, these distributions evolve due to frequent changes in the Android ecosystem, adversarial development of new malware families, and the continuous emergence of both benign and malicious applications. Prior studies have shown that such concept drift -- distributional shifts in benign and malicious samples, leads to significant degradation in detection performance over time. Despite the practical importance of this issue, existing datasets are often outdated and limited in temporal scope, diversity of malware families, and sample scale, making them insufficient for the systematic evaluation of concept drift in malware detection. To address this gap, we present LAMDA, the largest and most temporally diverse Android malware benchmark to date, designed specifically for concept drift analysis. LAMDA spans 12 years (2013-2025, excluding 2015), includes over 1 million samples (approximately 37% labeled as malware), and covers 1,380 malware families and 150,000 singleton samples, reflecting the natural distribution and evolution of real-world Android applications. We empirically demonstrate LAMDA's utility by quantifying the performance degradation of standard ML models over time and analyzing feature stability across years. As the most comprehensive Android malware dataset to date, LAMDA enables in-depth research into temporal drift, generalization, explainability, and evolving detection challenges. The dataset and code are available at: https://iqsec-lab.github.io/LAMDA/.

Several works have proposed Simplicity Bias (SB)---the tendency of standard training procedures such as Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) to find simple models---to justify why neural networks generalize well [Arpit et al. 2017, Nakkiran et al. 2019, Soudry et al. 2018]. However, the precise notion of simplicity remains vague. Furthermore, previous settings that use SB to theoretically justify why neural networks generalize well do not simultaneously capture the non-robustness of neural networks---a widely observed phenomenon in practice [Goodfellow et al. 2014, Jo and Bengio 2017]. We attempt to reconcile SB and the superior standard generalization of neural networks with the non-robustness observed in practice by designing datasets that (a) incorporate a precise notion of simplicity, (b) comprise multiple predictive features with varying levels of simplicity, and (c) capture the non-robustness of neural networks trained on real data. Through theory and empirics on these datasets, we make four observations: (i) SB of SGD and variants can be extreme: neural networks can exclusively rely on the simplest feature and remain invariant to all predictive complex features. (ii) The extreme aspect of SB could explain why seemingly benign distribution shifts and small adversarial perturbations significantly degrade model performance. (iii) Contrary to conventional wisdom, SB can also hurt generalization on the same data distribution, as SB persists even when the simplest feature has less predictive power than the more complex features. (iv) Common approaches to improve generalization and robustness---ensembles and adversarial training---can fail in mitigating SB and its pitfalls. Given the role of SB in training neural networks, we hope that the proposed datasets and methods serve as an effective testbed to evaluate novel algorithmic approaches aimed at avoiding the pitfalls of SB.

This study explores the application of anomaly detection (AD) methods in imbalanced learning tasks, focusing on fraud detection using real online credit card payment data. We assess the performance of several recent AD methods and compare their effectiveness against standard supervised learning methods. Offering evidence of distribution shift within our dataset, we analyze its impact on the tested models' performances. Our findings reveal that LightGBM exhibits significantly superior performance across all evaluated metrics but suffers more from distribution shifts than AD methods. Furthermore, our investigation reveals that LightGBM also captures the majority of frauds detected by AD methods. This observation challenges the potential benefits of ensemble methods to combine supervised, and AD approaches to enhance performance. In summary, this research provides practical insights into the utility of these techniques in real-world scenarios, showing LightGBM's superiority in fraud detection while highlighting challenges related to distribution shifts.

Multi-task learning (MTL) aims to empower a model to tackle multiple tasks simultaneously. A recent development known as task arithmetic has revealed that several models, each fine-tuned for distinct tasks, can be directly merged into a single model to execute MTL without necessitating a retraining process using the initial training data. Nevertheless, this direct addition of models often leads to a significant deterioration in the overall performance of the merged model. This decline occurs due to potential conflicts and intricate correlations among the multiple tasks. Consequently, the challenge emerges of how to merge pre-trained models more effectively without using their original training data. This paper introduces an innovative technique called Adaptive Model Merging (AdaMerging). This approach aims to autonomously learn the coefficients for model merging, either in a task-wise or layer-wise manner, without relying on the original training data. Specifically, our AdaMerging method operates as an automatic, unsupervised task arithmetic scheme. It leverages entropy minimization on unlabeled test samples from the multi-task setup as a surrogate objective function to iteratively refine the merging coefficients of the multiple models. Our experimental findings across eight tasks demonstrate the efficacy of the AdaMerging scheme we put forth. Compared to the current state-of-the-art task arithmetic merging scheme, AdaMerging showcases a remarkable 11\% improvement in performance. Notably, AdaMerging also exhibits superior generalization capabilities when applied to unseen downstream tasks. Furthermore, it displays a significantly enhanced robustness to data distribution shifts that may occur during the testing phase.

The retina is the only part of the human body in which blood vessels can be accessed non-invasively using imaging techniques such as digital fundus images (DFI). The spatial distribution of the retinal microvasculature may change with cardiovascular diseases and thus the eyes may be regarded as a window to our hearts. Computerized segmentation of the retinal arterioles and venules (A/V) is essential for automated microvasculature analysis. Using active learning, we created a new DFI dataset containing 240 crowd-sourced manual A/V segmentations performed by fifteen medical students and reviewed by an ophthalmologist, and developed LUNet, a novel deep learning architecture for high resolution A/V segmentation. LUNet architecture includes a double dilated convolutional block that aims to enhance the receptive field of the model and reduce its parameter count. Furthermore, LUNet has a long tail that operates at high resolution to refine the segmentation. The custom loss function emphasizes the continuity of the blood vessels. LUNet is shown to significantly outperform two state-of-the-art segmentation algorithms on the local test set as well as on four external test sets simulating distribution shifts across ethnicity, comorbidities, and annotators. We make the newly created dataset open access (upon publication).

Few-shot adaptation for Vision-Language Models (VLMs) presents a dilemma: balancing in-distribution accuracy with out-of-distribution generalization. Recent research has utilized low-level concepts such as visual attributes to enhance generalization. However, this study reveals that VLMs overly rely on a small subset of attributes on decision-making, which co-occur with the category but are not inherently part of it, termed spuriously correlated attributes. This biased nature of VLMs results in poor generalization. To address this, 1) we first propose Spurious Attribute Probing (SAP), identifying and filtering out these problematic attributes to significantly enhance the generalization of existing attribute-based methods; 2) We introduce Spurious Attribute Shielding (SAS), a plug-and-play module that mitigates the influence of these attributes on prediction, seamlessly integrating into various Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) methods. In experiments, SAP and SAS significantly enhance accuracy on distribution shifts across 11 datasets and 3 generalization tasks without compromising downstream performance, establishing a new state-of-the-art benchmark.

Deep learning models have demonstrated exceptional performance across a wide range of computer vision tasks. However, their performance often degrades significantly when faced with distribution shifts, such as domain or dataset changes. Test-Time Training (TTT) has emerged as an effective method to enhance model robustness by incorporating an auxiliary unsupervised task during training and leveraging it for model updates at test time. In this work, we introduce CTA (Cross-Task Alignment), a novel approach for improving TTT. Unlike existing TTT methods, CTA does not require a specialized model architecture and instead takes inspiration from the success of multi-modal contrastive learning to align a supervised encoder with a self-supervised one. This process enforces alignment between the learned representations of both models, thereby mitigating the risk of gradient interference, preserving the intrinsic robustness of self-supervised learning and enabling more semantically meaningful updates at test-time. Experimental results demonstrate substantial improvements in robustness and generalization over the state-of-the-art on several benchmark datasets.

In this paper, we address the problem of adapting models from a source domain to a target domain, a task that has become increasingly important due to the brittle generalization of deep neural networks. While several test-time adaptation techniques have emerged, they typically rely on synthetic toolbox data augmentations in cases of limited target data availability. We consider the challenging setting of single-shot adaptation and explore the design of augmentation strategies. We argue that augmentations utilized by existing methods are insufficient to handle large distribution shifts, and hence propose a new approach SiSTA, which first fine-tunes a generative model from the source domain using a single-shot target, and then employs novel sampling strategies for curating synthetic target data. Using experiments on a variety of benchmarks, distribution shifts and image corruptions, we find that SiSTA produces significantly improved generalization over existing baselines in face attribute detection and multi-class object recognition. Furthermore, SiSTA performs competitively to models obtained by training on larger target datasets. Our codes can be accessed at https://github.com/Rakshith-2905/SiSTA.

Test-time adaptation (TTA) addresses the unforeseen distribution shifts occurring during test time. In TTA, performance, memory consumption, and time consumption are crucial considerations. A recent diffusion-based TTA approach for restoring corrupted images involves image-level updates. However, using pixel space diffusion significantly increases resource requirements compared to conventional model updating TTA approaches, revealing limitations as a TTA method. To address this, we propose a novel TTA method that leverages an image editing model based on a latent diffusion model (LDM) and fine-tunes it using our newly introduced corruption modeling scheme. This scheme enhances the robustness of the diffusion model against distribution shifts by creating (clean, corrupted) image pairs and fine-tuning the model to edit corrupted images into clean ones. Moreover, we introduce a distilled variant to accelerate the model for corruption editing using only 4 network function evaluations (NFEs). We extensively validated our method across various architectures and datasets including image and video domains. Our model achieves the best performance with a 100 times faster runtime than that of a diffusion-based baseline. Furthermore, it is three times faster than the previous model updating TTA method that utilizes data augmentation, making an image-level updating approach more feasible.

Pathology diagnosis based on EEG signals and decoding brain activity holds immense importance in understanding neurological disorders. With the advancement of artificial intelligence methods and machine learning techniques, the potential for accurate data-driven diagnoses and effective treatments has grown significantly. However, applying machine learning algorithms to real-world datasets presents diverse challenges at multiple levels. The scarcity of labelled data, especially in low regime scenarios with limited availability of real patient cohorts due to high costs of recruitment, underscores the vital deployment of scaling and transfer learning techniques. In this study, we explore a real-world pathology classification task to highlight the effectiveness of data and model scaling and cross-dataset knowledge transfer. As such, we observe varying performance improvements through data scaling, indicating the need for careful evaluation and labelling. Additionally, we identify the challenges of possible negative transfer and emphasize the significance of some key components to overcome distribution shifts and potential spurious correlations and achieve positive transfer. We see improvement in the performance of the target model on the target (NMT) datasets by using the knowledge from the source dataset (TUAB) when a low amount of labelled data was available. Our findings indicate a small and generic model (e.g. ShallowNet) performs well on a single dataset, however, a larger model (e.g. TCN) performs better on transfer and learning from a larger and diverse dataset.

Semantic segmentation methods have advanced significantly. Still, their robustness to real-world perturbations and object types not seen during training remains a challenge, particularly in safety-critical applications. We propose a novel approach to improve the robustness of semantic segmentation techniques by leveraging the synergy between label-to-image generators and image-to-label segmentation models. Specifically, we design Robusta, a novel robust conditional generative adversarial network to generate realistic and plausible perturbed images that can be used to train reliable segmentation models. We conduct in-depth studies of the proposed generative model, assess the performance and robustness of the downstream segmentation network, and demonstrate that our approach can significantly enhance the robustness in the face of real-world perturbations, distribution shifts, and out-of-distribution samples. Our results suggest that this approach could be valuable in safety-critical applications, where the reliability of perception modules such as semantic segmentation is of utmost importance and comes with a limited computational budget in inference. We release our code at https://github.com/ENSTA-U2IS/robusta.

Inferring causal structure poses a combinatorial search problem that typically involves evaluating structures with a score or independence test. The resulting search is costly, and designing suitable scores or tests that capture prior knowledge is difficult. In this work, we propose to amortize causal structure learning. Rather than searching over structures, we train a variational inference model to directly predict the causal structure from observational or interventional data. This allows our inference model to acquire domain-specific inductive biases for causal discovery solely from data generated by a simulator, bypassing both the hand-engineering of suitable score functions and the search over graphs. The architecture of our inference model emulates permutation invariances that are crucial for statistical efficiency in structure learning, which facilitates generalization to significantly larger problem instances than seen during training. On synthetic data and semisynthetic gene expression data, our models exhibit robust generalization capabilities when subject to substantial distribution shifts and significantly outperform existing algorithms, especially in the challenging genomics domain. Our code and models are publicly available at: https://github.com/larslorch/avici.

Previous works on Treatment Effect Estimation (TEE) are not in widespread use because they are predominantly theoretical, where strong parametric assumptions are made but untractable for practical application. Recent work uses multilayer perceptron (MLP) for modeling casual relationships, however, MLPs lag far behind recent advances in ML methodology, which limits their applicability and generalizability. To extend beyond the single domain formulation and towards more realistic learning scenarios, we explore model design spaces beyond MLPs, i.e., transformer backbones, which provide flexibility where attention layers govern interactions among treatments and covariates to exploit structural similarities of potential outcomes for confounding control. Through careful model design, Transformers as Treatment Effect Estimators (TransTEE) is proposed. We show empirically that TransTEE can: (1) serve as a general purpose treatment effect estimator that significantly outperforms competitive baselines in a variety of challenging TEE problems (e.g., discrete, continuous, structured, or dosage-associated treatments) and is applicable to both when covariates are tabular and when they consist of structural data (e.g., texts, graphs); (2) yield multiple advantages: compatibility with propensity score modeling, parameter efficiency, robustness to continuous treatment value distribution shifts, explainable in covariate adjustment, and real-world utility in auditing pre-trained language models

Distribution shifts -- where the training distribution differs from the test distribution -- can substantially degrade the accuracy of machine learning (ML) systems deployed in the wild. Despite their ubiquity in the real-world deployments, these distribution shifts are under-represented in the datasets widely used in the ML community today. To address this gap, we present WILDS, a curated benchmark of 10 datasets reflecting a diverse range of distribution shifts that naturally arise in real-world applications, such as shifts across hospitals for tumor identification; across camera traps for wildlife monitoring; and across time and location in satellite imaging and poverty mapping. On each dataset, we show that standard training yields substantially lower out-of-distribution than in-distribution performance. This gap remains even with models trained by existing methods for tackling distribution shifts, underscoring the need for new methods for training models that are more robust to the types of distribution shifts that arise in practice. To facilitate method development, we provide an open-source package that automates dataset loading, contains default model architectures and hyperparameters, and standardizes evaluations. Code and leaderboards are available at https://wilds.stanford.edu.

While previous distribution shift detection approaches can identify if a shift has occurred, these approaches cannot localize which specific features have caused a distribution shift -- a critical step in diagnosing or fixing any underlying issue. For example, in military sensor networks, users will want to detect when one or more of the sensors has been compromised, and critically, they will want to know which specific sensors might be compromised. Thus, we first define a formalization of this problem as multiple conditional distribution hypothesis tests and propose both non-parametric and parametric statistical tests. For both efficiency and flexibility, we then propose to use a test statistic based on the density model score function (i.e. gradient with respect to the input) -- which can easily compute test statistics for all dimensions in a single forward and backward pass. Any density model could be used for computing the necessary statistics including deep density models such as normalizing flows or autoregressive models. We additionally develop methods for identifying when and where a shift occurs in multivariate time-series data and show results for multiple scenarios using realistic attack models on both simulated and real world data.

Ocean scientists have been collecting visual data to study marine organisms for decades. These images and videos are extremely valuable both for basic science and environmental monitoring tasks. There are tools for automatically processing these data, but none that are capable of handling the extreme variability in sample populations, image quality, and habitat characteristics that are common in visual sampling of the ocean. Such distribution shifts can occur over very short physical distances and in narrow time windows. Creating models that are able to recognize when an image or video sequence contains a new organism, an unusual collection of animals, or is otherwise out-of-sample is critical to fully leverage visual data in the ocean. The FathomNet2023 competition dataset presents a realistic scenario where the set of animals in the target data differs from the training data. The challenge is both to identify the organisms in a target image and assess whether it is out-of-sample.

Given an algorithmic predictor that is accurate on some source population consisting of strategic human decision subjects, will it remain accurate if the population respond to it? In our setting, an agent or a user corresponds to a sample (X,Y) drawn from a distribution D and will face a model h and its classification result h(X). Agents can modify X to adapt to h, which will incur a distribution shift on (X,Y). Our formulation is motivated by applications where the deployed machine learning models are subjected to human agents, and will ultimately face responsive and interactive data distributions. We formalize the discussions of the transferability of a model by studying how the performance of the model trained on the available source distribution (data) would translate to the performance on its induced domain. We provide both upper bounds for the performance gap due to the induced domain shift, as well as lower bounds for the trade-offs that a classifier has to suffer on either the source training distribution or the induced target distribution. We provide further instantiated analysis for two popular domain adaptation settings, including covariate shift and target shift.

Ensuring the reliability and safety of automated decision-making is crucial. It is well-known that data distribution shifts in machine learning can produce unreliable outcomes. This paper proposes a new approach for measuring the reliability of predictions under distribution shifts. We analyze how the outputs of a trained neural network change using clustering to measure distances between outputs and class centroids. We propose this distance as a metric to evaluate the confidence of predictions under distribution shifts. We assign each prediction to a cluster with centroid representing the mean softmax output for all correct predictions of a given class. We then define a safety threshold for a class as the smallest distance from an incorrect prediction to the given class centroid. We evaluate the approach on the MNIST and CIFAR-10 datasets using a Convolutional Neural Network and a Vision Transformer, respectively. The results show that our approach is consistent across these data sets and network models, and indicate that the proposed metric can offer an efficient way of determining when automated predictions are acceptable and when they should be deferred to human operators given a distribution shift.

We introduce four new real-world distribution shift datasets consisting of changes in image style, image blurriness, geographic location, camera operation, and more. With our new datasets, we take stock of previously proposed methods for improving out-of-distribution robustness and put them to the test. We find that using larger models and artificial data augmentations can improve robustness on real-world distribution shifts, contrary to claims in prior work. We find improvements in artificial robustness benchmarks can transfer to real-world distribution shifts, contrary to claims in prior work. Motivated by our observation that data augmentations can help with real-world distribution shifts, we also introduce a new data augmentation method which advances the state-of-the-art and outperforms models pretrained with 1000 times more labeled data. Overall we find that some methods consistently help with distribution shifts in texture and local image statistics, but these methods do not help with some other distribution shifts like geographic changes. Our results show that future research must study multiple distribution shifts simultaneously, as we demonstrate that no evaluated method consistently improves robustness.

Modern deep convolutional networks (CNNs) are often criticized for not generalizing under distributional shifts. However, several recent breakthroughs in transfer learning suggest that these networks can cope with severe distribution shifts and successfully adapt to new tasks from a few training examples. In this work we study the interplay between out-of-distribution and transfer performance of modern image classification CNNs for the first time and investigate the impact of the pre-training data size, the model scale, and the data preprocessing pipeline. We find that increasing both the training set and model sizes significantly improve the distributional shift robustness. Furthermore, we show that, perhaps surprisingly, simple changes in the preprocessing such as modifying the image resolution can significantly mitigate robustness issues in some cases. Finally, we outline the shortcomings of existing robustness evaluation datasets and introduce a synthetic dataset SI-Score we use for a systematic analysis across factors of variation common in visual data such as object size and position.

Accelerating the discovery of novel and more effective therapeutics is an important pharmaceutical problem in which deep learning is playing an increasingly significant role. However, real-world drug discovery tasks are often characterized by a scarcity of labeled data and significant covariate shiftx2013x2013a setting that poses a challenge to standard deep learning methods. In this paper, we present Q-SAVI, a probabilistic model able to address these challenges by encoding explicit prior knowledge of the data-generating process into a prior distribution over functions, presenting researchers with a transparent and probabilistically principled way to encode data-driven modeling preferences. Building on a novel, gold-standard bioactivity dataset that facilitates a meaningful comparison of models in an extrapolative regime, we explore different approaches to induce data shift and construct a challenging evaluation setup. We then demonstrate that using Q-SAVI to integrate contextualized prior knowledge of drug-like chemical space into the modeling process affords substantial gains in predictive accuracy and calibration, outperforming a broad range of state-of-the-art self-supervised pre-training and domain adaptation techniques.

Deep learning has achieved tremendous success with independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) data. However, the performance of neural networks often degenerates drastically when encountering out-of-distribution (OoD) data, i.e., when training and test data are sampled from different distributions. While a plethora of algorithms have been proposed for OoD generalization, our understanding of the data used to train and evaluate these algorithms remains stagnant. In this work, we first identify and measure two distinct kinds of distribution shifts that are ubiquitous in various datasets. Next, through extensive experiments, we compare OoD generalization algorithms across two groups of benchmarks, each dominated by one of the distribution shifts, revealing their strengths on one shift as well as limitations on the other shift. Overall, we position existing datasets and algorithms from different research areas seemingly unconnected into the same coherent picture. It may serve as a foothold that can be resorted to by future OoD generalization research. Our code is available at https://github.com/ynysjtu/ood_bench.

As black-box models increasingly power high-stakes applications, a variety of data-driven explanation methods have been introduced. Meanwhile, machine learning models are constantly challenged by distributional shifts. A question naturally arises: Are data-driven explanations robust against out-of-distribution data? Our empirical results show that even though predict correctly, the model might still yield unreliable explanations under distributional shifts. How to develop robust explanations against out-of-distribution data? To address this problem, we propose an end-to-end model-agnostic learning framework Distributionally Robust Explanations (DRE). The key idea is, inspired by self-supervised learning, to fully utilizes the inter-distribution information to provide supervisory signals for the learning of explanations without human annotation. Can robust explanations benefit the model's generalization capability? We conduct extensive experiments on a wide range of tasks and data types, including classification and regression on image and scientific tabular data. Our results demonstrate that the proposed method significantly improves the model's performance in terms of explanation and prediction robustness against distributional shifts.

We show that the effectiveness of the well celebrated Mixup [Zhang et al., 2018] can be further improved if instead of using it as the sole learning objective, it is utilized as an additional regularizer to the standard cross-entropy loss. This simple change not only provides much improved accuracy but also significantly improves the quality of the predictive uncertainty estimation of Mixup in most cases under various forms of covariate shifts and out-of-distribution detection experiments. In fact, we observe that Mixup yields much degraded performance on detecting out-of-distribution samples possibly, as we show empirically, because of its tendency to learn models that exhibit high-entropy throughout; making it difficult to differentiate in-distribution samples from out-distribution ones. To show the efficacy of our approach (RegMixup), we provide thorough analyses and experiments on vision datasets (ImageNet & CIFAR-10/100) and compare it with a suite of recent approaches for reliable uncertainty estimation.

Large pre-trained models such as CLIP or ALIGN offer consistent accuracy across a range of data distributions when performing zero-shot inference (i.e., without fine-tuning on a specific dataset). Although existing fine-tuning methods substantially improve accuracy on a given target distribution, they often reduce robustness to distribution shifts. We address this tension by introducing a simple and effective method for improving robustness while fine-tuning: ensembling the weights of the zero-shot and fine-tuned models (WiSE-FT). Compared to standard fine-tuning, WiSE-FT provides large accuracy improvements under distribution shift, while preserving high accuracy on the target distribution. On ImageNet and five derived distribution shifts, WiSE-FT improves accuracy under distribution shift by 4 to 6 percentage points (pp) over prior work while increasing ImageNet accuracy by 1.6 pp. WiSE-FT achieves similarly large robustness gains (2 to 23 pp) on a diverse set of six further distribution shifts, and accuracy gains of 0.8 to 3.3 pp compared to standard fine-tuning on seven commonly used transfer learning datasets. These improvements come at no additional computational cost during fine-tuning or inference.

In machine learning, generalization against distribution shifts -- where deployment conditions diverge from the training scenarios -- is crucial, particularly in fields like climate modeling, biomedicine, and autonomous driving. The emergence of foundation models, distinguished by their extensive pretraining and task versatility, has led to an increased interest in their adaptability to distribution shifts. GPT-4V(ision) acts as the most advanced publicly accessible multimodal foundation model, with extensive applications across various domains, including anomaly detection, video understanding, image generation, and medical diagnosis. However, its robustness against data distributions remains largely underexplored. Addressing this gap, this study rigorously evaluates GPT-4V's adaptability and generalization capabilities in dynamic environments, benchmarking against prominent models like CLIP and LLaVA. We delve into GPT-4V's zero-shot generalization across 13 diverse datasets spanning natural, medical, and molecular domains. We further investigate its adaptability to controlled data perturbations and examine the efficacy of in-context learning as a tool to enhance its adaptation. Our findings delineate GPT-4V's capability boundaries in distribution shifts, shedding light on its strengths and limitations across various scenarios. Importantly, this investigation contributes to our understanding of how AI foundation models generalize to distribution shifts, offering pivotal insights into their adaptability and robustness. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/jameszhou-gl/gpt-4v-distribution-shift.

Open-sourced Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved great success in various NLP tasks, however, they are still far inferior to API-based models when acting as agents. How to integrate agent ability into general LLMs becomes a crucial and urgent problem. This paper first delivers three key observations: (1) the current agent training corpus is entangled with both formats following and agent reasoning, which significantly shifts from the distribution of its pre-training data; (2) LLMs exhibit different learning speeds on the capabilities required by agent tasks; and (3) current approaches have side-effects when improving agent abilities by introducing hallucinations. Based on the above findings, we propose Agent-FLAN to effectively Fine-tune LANguage models for Agents. Through careful decomposition and redesign of the training corpus, Agent-FLAN enables Llama2-7B to outperform prior best works by 3.5\% across various agent evaluation datasets. With comprehensively constructed negative samples, Agent-FLAN greatly alleviates the hallucination issues based on our established evaluation benchmark. Besides, it consistently improves the agent capability of LLMs when scaling model sizes while slightly enhancing the general capability of LLMs. The code will be available at https://github.com/InternLM/Agent-FLAN.

Anomaly detection (AD) is a crucial machine learning task that aims to learn patterns from a set of normal training samples to identify abnormal samples in test data. Most existing AD studies assume that the training and test data are drawn from the same data distribution, but the test data can have large distribution shifts arising in many real-world applications due to different natural variations such as new lighting conditions, object poses, or background appearances, rendering existing AD methods ineffective in such cases. In this paper, we consider the problem of anomaly detection under distribution shift and establish performance benchmarks on three widely-used AD and out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization datasets. We demonstrate that simple adaptation of state-of-the-art OOD generalization methods to AD settings fails to work effectively due to the lack of labeled anomaly data. We further introduce a novel robust AD approach to diverse distribution shifts by minimizing the distribution gap between in-distribution and OOD normal samples in both the training and inference stages in an unsupervised way. Our extensive empirical results on the three datasets show that our approach substantially outperforms state-of-the-art AD methods and OOD generalization methods on data with various distribution shifts, while maintaining the detection accuracy on in-distribution data.

We might hope that when faced with unexpected inputs, well-designed software systems would fire off warnings. Machine learning (ML) systems, however, which depend strongly on properties of their inputs (e.g. the i.i.d. assumption), tend to fail silently. This paper explores the problem of building ML systems that fail loudly, investigating methods for detecting dataset shift, identifying exemplars that most typify the shift, and quantifying shift malignancy. We focus on several datasets and various perturbations to both covariates and label distributions with varying magnitudes and fractions of data affected. Interestingly, we show that across the dataset shifts that we explore, a two-sample-testing-based approach, using pre-trained classifiers for dimensionality reduction, performs best. Moreover, we demonstrate that domain-discriminating approaches tend to be helpful for characterizing shifts qualitatively and determining if they are harmful.

Prior work has analyzed the robustness of visual encoders to image transformations and corruptions, particularly in cases where such alterations are not seen during training. When this occurs, they introduce a form of distribution shift at test time, often leading to performance degradation. The primary focus has been on severe corruptions that, when applied aggressively, distort useful signals necessary for accurate semantic predictions. We take a different perspective by analyzing parameters of the image acquisition process and transformations that may be subtle or even imperceptible to the human eye. We find that such parameters are systematically encoded in the learned visual representations and can be easily recovered. More strikingly, their presence can have a profound impact, either positively or negatively, on semantic predictions. This effect depends on whether there is a strong correlation or anti-correlation between semantic labels and these acquisition-based or processing-based labels. Our code and data are available at: https://github.com/ryan-caesar-ramos/visual-encoder-traces

Robustness to natural distribution shifts has seen remarkable progress thanks to recent pre-training strategies combined with better fine-tuning methods. However, such fine-tuning assumes access to large amounts of labelled data, and the extent to which the observations hold when the amount of training data is not as high remains unknown. We address this gap by performing the first in-depth study of robustness to various natural distribution shifts in different low-shot regimes: spanning datasets, architectures, pre-trained initializations, and state-of-the-art robustness interventions. Most importantly, we find that there is no single model of choice that is often more robust than others, and existing interventions can fail to improve robustness on some datasets even if they do so in the full-shot regime. We hope that our work will motivate the community to focus on this problem of practical importance.

Learning representations that generalize under distribution shifts is critical for building robust machine learning models. However, despite significant efforts in recent years, algorithmic advances in this direction have been limited. In this work, we seek to understand the fundamental difficulty of out-of-distribution generalization with deep neural networks. We first empirically show that perhaps surprisingly, even allowing a neural network to explicitly fit the representations obtained from a teacher network that can generalize out-of-distribution is insufficient for the generalization of the student network. Then, by a theoretical study of two-layer ReLU networks optimized by stochastic gradient descent (SGD) under a structured feature model, we identify a fundamental yet unexplored feature learning proclivity of neural networks, feature contamination: neural networks can learn uncorrelated features together with predictive features, resulting in generalization failure under distribution shifts. Notably, this mechanism essentially differs from the prevailing narrative in the literature that attributes the generalization failure to spurious correlations. Overall, our results offer new insights into the non-linear feature learning dynamics of neural networks and highlight the necessity of considering inductive biases in out-of-distribution generalization.

Safe deployment of graph neural networks (GNNs) under distribution shift requires models to provide accurate confidence indicators (CI). However, while it is well-known in computer vision that CI quality diminishes under distribution shift, this behavior remains understudied for GNNs. Hence, we begin with a case study on CI calibration under controlled structural and feature distribution shifts and demonstrate that increased expressivity or model size do not always lead to improved CI performance. Consequently, we instead advocate for the use of epistemic uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods to modulate CIs. To this end, we propose G-DeltaUQ, a new single model UQ method that extends the recently proposed stochastic centering framework to support structured data and partial stochasticity. Evaluated across covariate, concept, and graph size shifts, G-DeltaUQ not only outperforms several popular UQ methods in obtaining calibrated CIs, but also outperforms alternatives when CIs are used for generalization gap prediction or OOD detection. Overall, our work not only introduces a new, flexible GNN UQ method, but also provides novel insights into GNN CIs on safety-critical tasks.

This paper studies the prediction of a target z from a pair of random variables (x,y), where the ground-truth predictor is additive E[z mid x,y] = f_star(x) +g_{star}(y). We study the performance of empirical risk minimization (ERM) over functions f+g, f in F and g in G, fit on a given training distribution, but evaluated on a test distribution which exhibits covariate shift. We show that, when the class F is "simpler" than G (measured, e.g., in terms of its metric entropy), our predictor is more resilient to heterogenous covariate shifts in which the shift in x is much greater than that in y. These results rely on a novel H\"older style inequality for the Dudley integral which may be of independent interest. Moreover, we corroborate our theoretical findings with experiments demonstrating improved resilience to shifts in "simpler" features across numerous domains.

We propose a new method for generating realistic datasets with distribution shifts using any decoder-based generative model. Our approach systematically creates datasets with varying intensities of distribution shifts, facilitating a comprehensive analysis of model performance degradation. We then use these generated datasets to evaluate the performance of various commonly used networks and observe a consistent decline in performance with increasing shift intensity, even when the effect is almost perceptually unnoticeable to the human eye. We see this degradation even when using data augmentations. We also find that enlarging the training dataset beyond a certain point has no effect on the robustness and that stronger inductive biases increase robustness.

Behavior constrained policy optimization has been demonstrated to be a successful paradigm for tackling Offline Reinforcement Learning. By exploiting historical transitions, a policy is trained to maximize a learned value function while constrained by the behavior policy to avoid a significant distributional shift. In this paper, we propose our closed-form policy improvement operators. We make a novel observation that the behavior constraint naturally motivates the use of first-order Taylor approximation, leading to a linear approximation of the policy objective. Additionally, as practical datasets are usually collected by heterogeneous policies, we model the behavior policies as a Gaussian Mixture and overcome the induced optimization difficulties by leveraging the LogSumExp's lower bound and Jensen's Inequality, giving rise to a closed-form policy improvement operator. We instantiate offline RL algorithms with our novel policy improvement operators and empirically demonstrate their effectiveness over state-of-the-art algorithms on the standard D4RL benchmark. Our code is available at https://cfpi-icml23.github.io/.

Supervised learning is often affected by a covariate shift in which the marginal distributions of instances (covariates x) of training and testing samples p_tr(x) and p_te(x) are different but the label conditionals coincide. Existing approaches address such covariate shift by either using the ratio p_te(x)/p_tr(x) to weight training samples (reweighted methods) or using the ratio p_tr(x)/p_te(x) to weight testing samples (robust methods). However, the performance of such approaches can be poor under support mismatch or when the above ratios take large values. We propose a minimax risk classification (MRC) approach for covariate shift adaptation that avoids such limitations by weighting both training and testing samples. In addition, we develop effective techniques that obtain both sets of weights and generalize the conventional kernel mean matching method. We provide novel generalization bounds for our method that show a significant increase in the effective sample size compared with reweighted methods. The proposed method also achieves enhanced classification performance in both synthetic and empirical experiments.

Currently, many theoretical as well as practically relevant questions towards the transferability and robustness of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) remain unsolved. While ongoing research efforts are engaging these problems from various angles, in most computer vision related cases these approaches can be generalized to investigations of the effects of distribution shifts in image data. In this context, we propose to study the shifts in the learned weights of trained CNN models. Here we focus on the properties of the distributions of dominantly used 3x3 convolution filter kernels. We collected and publicly provide a dataset with over 1.4 billion filters from hundreds of trained CNNs, using a wide range of datasets, architectures, and vision tasks. In a first use case of the proposed dataset, we can show highly relevant properties of many publicly available pre-trained models for practical applications: I) We analyze distribution shifts (or the lack thereof) between trained filters along different axes of meta-parameters, like visual category of the dataset, task, architecture, or layer depth. Based on these results, we conclude that model pre-training can succeed on arbitrary datasets if they meet size and variance conditions. II) We show that many pre-trained models contain degenerated filters which make them less robust and less suitable for fine-tuning on target applications. Data & Project website: https://github.com/paulgavrikov/cnn-filter-db

Out-of-distribution (OOD) prediction is often approached by restricting models to causal or invariant covariates, avoiding non-causal spurious associations that may be unstable across environments. Despite its theoretical appeal, this strategy frequently underperforms empirical risk minimization (ERM) in practice. We investigate the source of this gap and show that such failures naturally arise when only a subset of the true causes of the outcome is observed. In these settings, non-causal spurious covariates can serve as informative proxies for unobserved causes and substantially improve prediction, except under distribution shifts that break these proxy relationships. Consequently, the optimal set of predictive covariates is neither universal nor necessarily exhibits invariant relationships with the outcome across all environments, but instead depends on the specific type of shift encountered. Crucially, we observe that different covariate shifts induce distinct, observable signatures in the covariate distribution itself. Moreover, these signatures can be extracted from unlabeled data in the target OOD environment and used to assess when proxy covariates remain reliable and when they fail. Building on this observation, we propose an environment-adaptive covariate selection (EACS) algorithm that maps environment-level covariate summaries to environment-specific covariate sets, while allowing the incorporation of prior causal knowledge as constraints. Across simulations and applied datasets, EACS consistently outperforms static causal, invariant, and ERM-based predictors under diverse distribution shifts.

Current machine learning systems are brittle in the face of distribution shifts (DS), where the target distribution that the system is tested on differs from the source distribution used to train the system. This problem of robustness to DS has been studied extensively in the field of domain adaptation. For deep neural networks, a popular framework for unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA) is domain matching, in which algorithms try to align the marginal distributions in the feature or output space. The current theoretical understanding of these methods, however, is limited and existing theoretical results are not precise enough to characterize their performance in practice. In this paper, we derive new bounds based on optimal transport that analyze the UDA problem. Our new bounds include a term which we dub as entanglement, consisting of an expectation of Wasserstein distance between conditionals with respect to changing data distributions. Analysis of the entanglement term provides a novel perspective on the unoptimizable aspects of UDA. In various experiments with multiple models across several DS scenarios, we show that this term can be used to explain the varying performance of UDA algorithms.

Deep learning models are intrinsically sensitive to distribution shifts in the input data. In particular, small, barely perceivable perturbations to the input data can force models to make wrong predictions with high confidence. An common defense mechanism is regularization through adversarial training which injects worst-case perturbations back into training to strengthen the decision boundaries, and to reduce overfitting. In this context, we perform an investigation of 3x3 convolution filters that form in adversarially-trained models. Filters are extracted from 71 public models of the linf-RobustBench CIFAR-10/100 and ImageNet1k leaderboard and compared to filters extracted from models built on the same architectures but trained without robust regularization. We observe that adversarially-robust models appear to form more diverse, less sparse, and more orthogonal convolution filters than their normal counterparts. The largest differences between robust and normal models are found in the deepest layers, and the very first convolution layer, which consistently and predominantly forms filters that can partially eliminate perturbations, irrespective of the architecture. Data & Project website: https://github.com/paulgavrikov/cvpr22w_RobustnessThroughTheLens

In many machine learning for healthcare tasks, standard datasets are constructed by amassing data across many, often fundamentally dissimilar, sources. But when does adding more data help, and when does it hinder progress on desired model outcomes in real-world settings? We identify this situation as the Data Addition Dilemma, demonstrating that adding training data in this multi-source scaling context can at times result in reduced overall accuracy, uncertain fairness outcomes, and reduced worst-subgroup performance. We find that this possibly arises from an empirically observed trade-off between model performance improvements due to data scaling and model deterioration from distribution shift. We thus establish baseline strategies for navigating this dilemma, introducing distribution shift heuristics to guide decision-making on which data sources to add in data scaling, in order to yield the expected model performance improvements. We conclude with a discussion of the required considerations for data collection and suggestions for studying data composition and scale in the age of increasingly larger models.

Using a 100-day symmetric window around the January 2025 U.S. presidential inauguration, non-parametric statistical methods with bootstrap resampling (10,000 iterations) analyze distributional properties and anomalies. Results indicate a statistically significant 3.61\% Indonesian rupiah depreciation post-inauguration, with a large effect size (Cliff's Delta = -0.9224, CI: [-0.9727, -0.8571]). Central tendency shifted markedly, yet volatility remained stable (variance ratio = 0.9061, p = 0.504). Four significant anomalies exhibiting temporal clustering are detected. These findings provide quantitative evidence of political transition effects on emerging market currencies, highlighting implications for monetary policy and currency risk management.

The task of out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is notoriously ill-defined. Earlier works focused on new-class detection, aiming to identify label-altering data distribution shifts, also known as "semantic shift." However, recent works argue for a focus on failure detection, expanding the OOD evaluation framework to account for label-preserving data distribution shifts, also known as "covariate shift." Intriguingly, under this new framework, complex OOD detectors that were previously considered state-of-the-art now perform similarly to, or even worse than the simple maximum softmax probability baseline. This raises the question: what are the latest OOD detectors actually detecting? Deciphering the behavior of OOD detection algorithms requires evaluation datasets that decouples semantic shift and covariate shift. To aid our investigations, we present ImageNet-OOD, a clean semantic shift dataset that minimizes the interference of covariate shift. Through comprehensive experiments, we show that OOD detectors are more sensitive to covariate shift than to semantic shift, and the benefits of recent OOD detection algorithms on semantic shift detection is minimal. Our dataset and analyses provide important insights for guiding the design of future OOD detectors.

Transfer learning with a small amount of target data is an effective and common approach to adapting a pre-trained model to distribution shifts. In some situations, target data labels may be expensive to obtain, so we may only have access to a limited number of target data points. To make the most of a very small target dataset, we propose a lightweight, sample-efficient approach that learns a diverse set of features and adapts to a target distribution by interpolating these features. Our approach, Project and Probe (Pro^2), first learns a linear projection that maps a pre-trained embedding onto orthogonal directions while being predictive of labels in the source dataset. The goal of this step is to learn a variety of predictive features, so that at least some of them remain useful after distribution shift. Pro^2 then learns a linear classifier on top of these projected features using a small target dataset. Theoretically, we find that Pro^2 results in more sample-efficient generalization by inducing a favorable bias-variance tradeoff. Our experiments on four datasets, with multiple distribution shift settings for each, show that Pro^2 improves performance by 5-15% when given limited target data compared to prior methods such as standard linear probing.

It is commonplace to encounter heterogeneous or nonstationary data, of which the underlying generating process changes across domains or over time. Such a distribution shift feature presents both challenges and opportunities for causal discovery. In this paper, we develop a framework for causal discovery from such data, called Constraint-based causal Discovery from heterogeneous/NOnstationary Data (CD-NOD), to find causal skeleton and directions and estimate the properties of mechanism changes. First, we propose an enhanced constraint-based procedure to detect variables whose local mechanisms change and recover the skeleton of the causal structure over observed variables. Second, we present a method to determine causal orientations by making use of independent changes in the data distribution implied by the underlying causal model, benefiting from information carried by changing distributions. After learning the causal structure, next, we investigate how to efficiently estimate the "driving force" of the nonstationarity of a causal mechanism. That is, we aim to extract from data a low-dimensional representation of changes. The proposed methods are nonparametric, with no hard restrictions on data distributions and causal mechanisms, and do not rely on window segmentation. Furthermore, we find that data heterogeneity benefits causal structure identification even with particular types of confounders. Finally, we show the connection between heterogeneity/nonstationarity and soft intervention in causal discovery. Experimental results on various synthetic and real-world data sets (task-fMRI and stock market data) are presented to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed methods.

Faced with distribution shift between training and test set, we wish to detect and quantify the shift, and to correct our classifiers without test set labels. Motivated by medical diagnosis, where diseases (targets) cause symptoms (observations), we focus on label shift, where the label marginal p(y) changes but the conditional p(x| y) does not. We propose Black Box Shift Estimation (BBSE) to estimate the test distribution p(y). BBSE exploits arbitrary black box predictors to reduce dimensionality prior to shift correction. While better predictors give tighter estimates, BBSE works even when predictors are biased, inaccurate, or uncalibrated, so long as their confusion matrices are invertible. We prove BBSE's consistency, bound its error, and introduce a statistical test that uses BBSE to detect shift. We also leverage BBSE to correct classifiers. Experiments demonstrate accurate estimates and improved prediction, even on high-dimensional datasets of natural images.

We propose a method for adapting neural networks to distribution shifts at test-time. In contrast to training-time robustness mechanisms that attempt to anticipate and counter the shift, we create a closed-loop system and make use of a test-time feedback signal to adapt a network on the fly. We show that this loop can be effectively implemented using a learning-based function, which realizes an amortized optimizer for the network. This leads to an adaptation method, named Rapid Network Adaptation (RNA), that is notably more flexible and orders of magnitude faster than the baselines. Through a broad set of experiments using various adaptation signals and target tasks, we study the efficiency and flexibility of this method. We perform the evaluations using various datasets (Taskonomy, Replica, ScanNet, Hypersim, COCO, ImageNet), tasks (depth, optical flow, semantic segmentation, classification), and distribution shifts (Cross-datasets, 2D and 3D Common Corruptions) with promising results. We end with a discussion on general formulations for handling distribution shifts and our observations from comparing with similar approaches from other domains.

Temporal distribution shift (TDS) erodes the long-term accuracy of recommender systems, yet industrial practice still relies on periodic incremental training, which struggles to capture both stable and transient patterns. Existing approaches such as invariant learning and self-supervised learning offer partial solutions but often suffer from unstable temporal generalization, representation collapse, or inefficient data utilization. To address these limitations, we propose ELBO_TDS, a probabilistic framework that integrates seamlessly into industry-scale incremental learning pipelines. First, we identify key shifting factors through statistical analysis of real-world production data and design a simple yet effective data augmentation strategy that resamples these time-varying factors to extend the training support. Second, to harness the benefits of this extended distribution while preventing representation collapse, we model the temporal recommendation scenario using a causal graph and derive a self-supervised variational objective, ELBO_TDS, grounded in the causal structure. Extensive experiments supported by both theoretical and empirical analysis demonstrate that our method achieves superior temporal generalization, yielding a 2.33\% uplift in GMV per user and has been successfully deployed in Shopee Product Search. Code is available at https://github.com/FuCongResearchSquad/ELBO4TDS.

Calibrated uncertainty estimates in machine learning are crucial to many fields such as autonomous vehicles, medicine, and weather and climate forecasting. While there is extensive literature on uncertainty calibration for classification, the classification findings do not always translate to regression. As a result, modern models for predicting uncertainty in regression settings typically produce uncalibrated and overconfident estimates. To address these gaps, we present a calibration method for regression settings that does not assume a particular uncertainty distribution over the error: Calibrating Regression Uncertainty Distributions Empirically (CRUDE). CRUDE makes the weaker assumption that error distributions have a constant arbitrary shape across the output space, shifted by predicted mean and scaled by predicted standard deviation. We detail a theoretical connection between CRUDE and conformal inference. Across an extensive set of regression tasks, CRUDE demonstrates consistently sharper, better calibrated, and more accurate uncertainty estimates than state-of-the-art techniques.

Machine learning systems often experience a distribution shift between training and testing. In this paper, we introduce a simple variational objective whose optima are exactly the set of all representations on which risk minimizers are guaranteed to be robust to any distribution shift that preserves the Bayes predictor, e.g., covariate shifts. Our objective has two components. First, a representation must remain discriminative for the task, i.e., some predictor must be able to simultaneously minimize the source and target risk. Second, the representation's marginal support needs to be the same across source and target. We make this practical by designing self-supervised objectives that only use unlabelled data and augmentations to train robust representations. Our objectives give insights into the robustness of CLIP, and further improve CLIP's representations to achieve SOTA results on DomainBed.

Understanding the performance of machine learning models across diverse data distributions is critically important for reliable applications. Motivated by this, there is a growing focus on curating benchmark datasets that capture distribution shifts. While valuable, the existing benchmarks are limited in that many of them only contain a small number of shifts and they lack systematic annotation about what is different across different shifts. We present MetaShift--a collection of 12,868 sets of natural images across 410 classes--to address this challenge. We leverage the natural heterogeneity of Visual Genome and its annotations to construct MetaShift. The key construction idea is to cluster images using its metadata, which provides context for each image (e.g. "cats with cars" or "cats in bathroom") that represent distinct data distributions. MetaShift has two important benefits: first, it contains orders of magnitude more natural data shifts than previously available. Second, it provides explicit explanations of what is unique about each of its data sets and a distance score that measures the amount of distribution shift between any two of its data sets. We demonstrate the utility of MetaShift in benchmarking several recent proposals for training models to be robust to data shifts. We find that the simple empirical risk minimization performs the best when shifts are moderate and no method had a systematic advantage for large shifts. We also show how MetaShift can help to visualize conflicts between data subsets during model training.

In open-world scenarios, where both novel classes and domains may exist, an ideal segmentation model should detect anomaly classes for safety and generalize to new domains. However, existing methods often struggle to distinguish between domain-level and semantic-level distribution shifts, leading to poor out-of-distribution (OOD) detection or domain generalization performance. In this work, we aim to equip the model to generalize effectively to covariate-shift regions while precisely identifying semantic-shift regions. To achieve this, we design a novel generative augmentation method to produce coherent images that incorporate both anomaly (or novel) objects and various covariate shifts at both image and object levels. Furthermore, we introduce a training strategy that recalibrates uncertainty specifically for semantic shifts and enhances the feature extractor to align features associated with domain shifts. We validate the effectiveness of our method across benchmarks featuring both semantic and domain shifts. Our method achieves state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks for both OOD detection and domain generalization. Code is available at https://github.com/gaozhitong/MultiShiftSeg.

In federated learning, participating clients typically possess non-i.i.d. data, posing a significant challenge to generalization to unseen distributions. To address this, we propose a Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization scheme called WAFL. Leveraging its duality, we frame WAFL as an empirical surrogate risk minimization problem, and solve it using a local SGD-based algorithm with convergence guarantees. We show that the robustness of WAFL is more general than related approaches, and the generalization bound is robust to all adversarial distributions inside the Wasserstein ball (ambiguity set). Since the center location and radius of the Wasserstein ball can be suitably modified, WAFL shows its applicability not only in robustness but also in domain adaptation. Through empirical evaluation, we demonstrate that WAFL generalizes better than the vanilla FedAvg in non-i.i.d. settings, and is more robust than other related methods in distribution shift settings. Further, using benchmark datasets we show that WAFL is capable of generalizing to unseen target domains.

Neural networks have a number of shortcomings. Amongst the severest ones is the sensitivity to distribution shifts which allows models to be easily fooled into wrong predictions by small perturbations to inputs that are often imperceivable to humans and do not have to carry semantic meaning. Adversarial training poses a partial solution to address this issue by training models on worst-case perturbations. Yet, recent work has also pointed out that the reasoning in neural networks is different from humans. Humans identify objects by shape, while neural nets mainly employ texture cues. Exemplarily, a model trained on photographs will likely fail to generalize to datasets containing sketches. Interestingly, it was also shown that adversarial training seems to favorably increase the shift toward shape bias. In this work, we revisit this observation and provide an extensive analysis of this effect on various architectures, the common ell_2- and ell_infty-training, and Transformer-based models. Further, we provide a possible explanation for this phenomenon from a frequency perspective.

In many real-world applications, graph-structured data used for training and testing have differences in distribution, such as in high energy physics (HEP) where simulation data used for training may not match real experiments. Graph domain adaptation (GDA) is a method used to address these differences. However, current GDA primarily works by aligning the distributions of node representations output by a single graph neural network encoder shared across the training and testing domains, which may often yield sub-optimal solutions. This work examines different impacts of distribution shifts caused by either graph structure or node attributes and identifies a new type of shift, named conditional structure shift (CSS), which current GDA approaches are provably sub-optimal to deal with. A novel approach, called structural reweighting (StruRW), is proposed to address this issue and is tested on synthetic graphs, four benchmark datasets, and a new application in HEP. StruRW has shown significant performance improvement over the baselines in the settings with large graph structure shifts, and reasonable performance improvement when node attribute shift dominates.

Evaluating the performance of machine learning models under distribution shift is challenging, especially when we only have unlabeled data from the shifted (target) domain, along with labeled data from the original (source) domain. Recent work suggests that the notion of disagreement, the degree to which two models trained with different randomness differ on the same input, is a key to tackle this problem. Experimentally, disagreement and prediction error have been shown to be strongly connected, which has been used to estimate model performance. Experiments have led to the discovery of the disagreement-on-the-line phenomenon, whereby the classification error under the target domain is often a linear function of the classification error under the source domain; and whenever this property holds, disagreement under the source and target domain follow the same linear relation. In this work, we develop a theoretical foundation for analyzing disagreement in high-dimensional random features regression; and study under what conditions the disagreement-on-the-line phenomenon occurs in our setting. Experiments on CIFAR-10-C, Tiny ImageNet-C, and Camelyon17 are consistent with our theory and support the universality of the theoretical findings.

The recent trend towards Personalized Federated Learning (PFL) has garnered significant attention as it allows for the training of models that are tailored to each client while maintaining data privacy. However, current PFL techniques primarily focus on modeling the conditional distribution heterogeneity (i.e. concept shift), which can result in suboptimal performance when the distribution of input data across clients diverges (i.e. covariate shift). Additionally, these techniques often lack the ability to adapt to unseen data, further limiting their effectiveness in real-world scenarios. To address these limitations, we propose a novel approach, FedGMM, which utilizes Gaussian mixture models (GMM) to effectively fit the input data distributions across diverse clients. The model parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood estimation utilizing a federated Expectation-Maximization algorithm, which is solved in closed form and does not assume gradient similarity. Furthermore, FedGMM possesses an additional advantage of adapting to new clients with minimal overhead, and it also enables uncertainty quantification. Empirical evaluations on synthetic and benchmark datasets demonstrate the superior performance of our method in both PFL classification and novel sample detection.

Monitoring machine learning models once they are deployed is challenging. It is even more challenging to decide when to retrain models in real-case scenarios when labeled data is beyond reach, and monitoring performance metrics becomes unfeasible. In this work, we use non-parametric bootstrapped uncertainty estimates and SHAP values to provide explainable uncertainty estimation as a technique that aims to monitor the deterioration of machine learning models in deployment environments, as well as determine the source of model deterioration when target labels are not available. Classical methods are purely aimed at detecting distribution shift, which can lead to false positives in the sense that the model has not deteriorated despite a shift in the data distribution. To estimate model uncertainty we construct prediction intervals using a novel bootstrap method, which improves upon the work of Kumar & Srivastava (2012). We show that both our model deterioration detection system as well as our uncertainty estimation method achieve better performance than the current state-of-the-art. Finally, we use explainable AI techniques to gain an understanding of the drivers of model deterioration. We release an open source Python package, doubt, which implements our proposed methods, as well as the code used to reproduce our experiments.

Diffusion models have shown promising ability in generating high-quality time series (TS) data. Despite the initial success, existing works mostly focus on the authenticity of data at the individual level, but pay less attention to preserving the population-level properties on the entire dataset. Such population-level properties include value distributions for each dimension and distributions of certain functional dependencies (e.g., cross-correlation, CC) between different dimensions. For instance, when generating house energy consumption TS data, the value distributions of the outside temperature and the kitchen temperature should be preserved, as well as the distribution of CC between them. Preserving such TS population-level properties is critical in maintaining the statistical insights of the datasets, mitigating model bias, and augmenting downstream tasks like TS prediction. Yet, it is often overlooked by existing models. Hence, data generated by existing models often bear distribution shifts from the original data. We propose Population-aware Diffusion for Time Series (PaD-TS), a new TS generation model that better preserves the population-level properties. The key novelties of PaD-TS include 1) a new training method explicitly incorporating TS population-level property preservation, and 2) a new dual-channel encoder model architecture that better captures the TS data structure. Empirical results in major benchmark datasets show that PaD-TS can improve the average CC distribution shift score between real and synthetic data by 5.9x while maintaining a performance comparable to state-of-the-art models on individual-level authenticity.

Large language models (LLMs) are routinely pre-trained on billions of tokens, only to start the process over again once new data becomes available. A much more efficient solution is to continually pre-train these models, saving significant compute compared to re-training. However, the distribution shift induced by new data typically results in degraded performance on previous data or poor adaptation to the new data. In this work, we show that a simple and scalable combination of learning rate (LR) re-warming, LR re-decaying, and replay of previous data is sufficient to match the performance of fully re-training from scratch on all available data, as measured by final loss and language model (LM) evaluation benchmarks. Specifically, we show this for a weak but realistic distribution shift between two commonly used LLM pre-training datasets (EnglishrightarrowEnglish) and a stronger distribution shift (EnglishrightarrowGerman) at the 405M parameter model scale with large dataset sizes (hundreds of billions of tokens). Selecting the weak but realistic shift for larger-scale experiments, we also find that our continual learning strategies match the re-training baseline for a 10B parameter LLM. Our results demonstrate that LLMs can be successfully updated via simple and scalable continual learning strategies, matching the re-training baseline using only a fraction of the compute. Finally, inspired by previous work, we propose alternatives to the cosine learning rate schedule that help circumvent forgetting induced by LR re-warming and that are not bound to a fixed token budget.

Small sample sizes are common in many disciplines, which necessitates pooling roughly similar datasets across multiple institutions to study weak but relevant associations between images and disease outcomes. Such data often manifest shift/imbalance in covariates (i.e., secondary non-imaging data). Controlling for such nuisance variables is common within standard statistical analysis, but the ideas do not directly apply to overparameterized models. Consequently, recent work has shown how strategies from invariant representation learning provides a meaningful starting point, but the current repertoire of methods is limited to accounting for shifts/imbalances in just a couple of covariates at a time. In this paper, we show how viewing this problem from the perspective of Category theory provides a simple and effective solution that completely avoids elaborate multi-stage training pipelines that would otherwise be needed. We show the effectiveness of this approach via extensive experiments on real datasets. Further, we discuss how this style of formulation offers a unified perspective on at least 5+ distinct problem settings, from self-supervised learning to matching problems in 3D reconstruction.

Understanding how machine learning models respond to distributional shifts is a key research challenge. Mazes serve as an excellent testbed due to varied generation algorithms offering a nuanced platform to simulate both subtle and pronounced distributional shifts. To enable systematic investigations of model behavior on out-of-distribution data, we present maze-dataset, a comprehensive library for generating, processing, and visualizing datasets consisting of maze-solving tasks. With this library, researchers can easily create datasets, having extensive control over the generation algorithm used, the parameters fed to the algorithm of choice, and the filters that generated mazes must satisfy. Furthermore, it supports multiple output formats, including rasterized and text-based, catering to convolutional neural networks and autoregressive transformer models. These formats, along with tools for visualizing and converting between them, ensure versatility and adaptability in research applications.

Distribution shifts are a major source of failure of deployed machine learning models. However, evaluating a model's reliability under distribution shifts can be challenging, especially since it may be difficult to acquire counterfactual examples that exhibit a specified shift. In this work, we introduce dataset interfaces: a framework which allows users to scalably synthesize such counterfactual examples from a given dataset. Specifically, we represent each class from the input dataset as a custom token within the text space of a text-to-image diffusion model. By incorporating these tokens into natural language prompts, we can then generate instantiations of objects in that dataset under desired distribution shifts. We demonstrate how applying our framework to the ImageNet dataset enables us to study model behavior across a diverse array of shifts, including variations in background, lighting, and attributes of the objects themselves. Code available at https://github.com/MadryLab/dataset-interfaces.

This paper introduces a new testbed CLIFT (Clinical Shift) for the clinical domain Question-answering task. The testbed includes 7.5k high-quality question answering samples to provide a diverse and reliable benchmark. We performed a comprehensive experimental study and evaluated several QA deep-learning models under the proposed testbed. Despite impressive results on the original test set, the performance degrades when applied to new test sets, which shows the distribution shift. Our findings emphasize the need for and the potential for increasing the robustness of clinical domain models under distributional shifts. The testbed offers one way to track progress in that direction. It also highlights the necessity of adopting evaluation metrics that consider robustness to natural distribution shifts. We plan to expand the corpus by adding more samples and model results. The full paper and the updated benchmark are available at github.com/openlifescience-ai/clift

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection aims to identify test examples that do not belong to the training distribution and are thus unlikely to be predicted reliably. Despite a plethora of existing works, most of them focused only on the scenario where OOD examples come from semantic shift (e.g., unseen categories), ignoring other possible causes (e.g., covariate shift). In this paper, we present a novel, unifying framework to study OOD detection in a broader scope. Instead of detecting OOD examples from a particular cause, we propose to detect examples that a deployed machine learning model (e.g., an image classifier) is unable to predict correctly. That is, whether a test example should be detected and rejected or not is ``model-specific''. We show that this framework unifies the detection of OOD examples caused by semantic shift and covariate shift, and closely addresses the concern of applying a machine learning model to uncontrolled environments. We provide an extensive analysis that involves a variety of models (e.g., different architectures and training strategies), sources of OOD examples, and OOD detection approaches, and reveal several insights into improving and understanding OOD detection in uncontrolled environments.

Machine learning models often experience performance degradation post-deployment due to shifts in data distribution. It is challenging to assess model's performance accurately when labels are missing or delayed. Existing proxy methods, such as drift detection, fail to measure the effects of these shifts adequately. To address this, we introduce a new method, Probabilistic Adaptive Performance Estimation (PAPE), for evaluating classification models on unlabeled data that accurately quantifies the impact of covariate shift on model performance. It is model and data-type agnostic and works for various performance metrics. Crucially, PAPE operates independently of the original model, relying only on its predictions and probability estimates, and does not need any assumptions about the nature of the covariate shift, learning directly from data instead. We tested PAPE on tabular data using over 900 dataset-model combinations created from US census data, assessing its performance against multiple benchmarks. Overall, PAPE provided more accurate performance estimates than other evaluated methodologies.

Modern machine learning models deployed in the wild can encounter both covariate and semantic shifts, giving rise to the problems of out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization and OOD detection respectively. While both problems have received significant research attention lately, they have been pursued independently. This may not be surprising, since the two tasks have seemingly conflicting goals. This paper provides a new unified approach that is capable of simultaneously generalizing to covariate shifts while robustly detecting semantic shifts. We propose a margin-based learning framework that exploits freely available unlabeled data in the wild that captures the environmental test-time OOD distributions under both covariate and semantic shifts. We show both empirically and theoretically that the proposed margin constraint is the key to achieving both OOD generalization and detection. Extensive experiments show the superiority of our framework, outperforming competitive baselines that specialize in either OOD generalization or OOD detection. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/deeplearning-wisc/scone.

Understanding the performance of machine learning (ML) models across diverse data distributions is critically important for reliable applications. Despite recent empirical studies positing a near-perfect linear correlation between in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) accuracies, we empirically demonstrate that this correlation is more nuanced under subpopulation shifts. Through rigorous experimentation and analysis across a variety of datasets, models, and training epochs, we demonstrate that OOD performance often has a nonlinear correlation with ID performance in subpopulation shifts. Our findings, which contrast previous studies that have posited a linear correlation in model performance during distribution shifts, reveal a "moon shape" correlation (parabolic uptrend curve) between the test performance on the majority subpopulation and the minority subpopulation. This non-trivial nonlinear correlation holds across model architectures, hyperparameters, training durations, and the imbalance between subpopulations. Furthermore, we found that the nonlinearity of this "moon shape" is causally influenced by the degree of spurious correlations in the training data. Our controlled experiments show that stronger spurious correlation in the training data creates more nonlinear performance correlation. We provide complementary experimental and theoretical analyses for this phenomenon, and discuss its implications for ML reliability and fairness. Our work highlights the importance of understanding the nonlinear effects of model improvement on performance in different subpopulations, and has the potential to inform the development of more equitable and responsible machine learning models.

Object detectors have achieved remarkable performance in many applications; however, these deep learning models are typically designed under the i.i.d. assumption, meaning they are trained and evaluated on data sampled from the same (source) distribution. In real-world deployment, however, target distributions often differ from source data, leading to substantial performance degradation. Domain Generalisation (DG) seeks to bridge this gap by enabling models to generalise to Out-Of-Distribution (OOD) data without access to target distributions during training, enhancing robustness to unseen conditions. In this work, we examine the generalisability and robustness of state-of-the-art object detectors under real-world distribution shifts, focusing particularly on spatial domain shifts. Despite the need, a standardised benchmark dataset specifically designed for assessing object detection under realistic DG scenarios is currently lacking. To address this, we introduce Real-World Distribution Shifts (RWDS), a suite of three novel DG benchmarking datasets that focus on humanitarian and climate change applications. These datasets enable the investigation of domain shifts across (i) climate zones and (ii) various disasters and geographic regions. To our knowledge, these are the first DG benchmarking datasets tailored for object detection in real-world, high-impact contexts. We aim for these datasets to serve as valuable resources for evaluating the robustness and generalisation of future object detection models. Our datasets and code are available at https://github.com/RWGAI/RWDS.

While scaling laws provide a reliable methodology for predicting train loss across compute scales for a single data distribution, less is known about how these predictions should change as we change the distribution. In this paper, we derive a strategy for predicting one loss from another and apply it to predict across different pre-training datasets and from pre-training data to downstream task data. Our predictions extrapolate well even at 20x the largest FLOP budget used to fit the curves. More precisely, we find that there are simple shifted power law relationships between (1) the train losses of two models trained on two separate datasets when the models are paired by training compute (train-to-train), (2) the train loss and the test loss on any downstream distribution for a single model (train-to-test), and (3) the test losses of two models trained on two separate train datasets (test-to-test). The results hold up for pre-training datasets that differ substantially (some are entirely code and others have no code at all) and across a variety of downstream tasks. Finally, we find that in some settings these shifted power law relationships can yield more accurate predictions than extrapolating single-dataset scaling laws.

We present a method for making neural network predictions robust to shifts from the training data distribution. The proposed method is based on making predictions via a diverse set of cues (called 'middle domains') and ensembling them into one strong prediction. The premise of the idea is that predictions made via different cues respond differently to a distribution shift, hence one should be able to merge them into one robust final prediction. We perform the merging in a straightforward but principled manner based on the uncertainty associated with each prediction. The evaluations are performed using multiple tasks and datasets (Taskonomy, Replica, ImageNet, CIFAR) under a wide range of adversarial and non-adversarial distribution shifts which demonstrate the proposed method is considerably more robust than its standard learning counterpart, conventional deep ensembles, and several other baselines.

Robustness in Natural Language Processing continues to be a pertinent issue, where state of the art models under-perform under naturally shifted distributions. In the context of Question Answering, work on domain adaptation methods continues to be a growing body of research. However, very little attention has been given to the notion of domain generalization under natural distribution shifts, where the target domain is unknown. With drastic improvements in the quality and access to generative models, we answer the question: How do generated datasets influence the performance of QA models under natural distribution shifts? We perform experiments on 4 different datasets under varying amounts of distribution shift, and analyze how "in-the-wild" generation can help achieve domain generalization. We take a two-step generation approach, generating both contexts and QA pairs to augment existing datasets. Through our experiments, we demonstrate how augmenting reading comprehension datasets with generated data leads to better robustness towards natural distribution shifts.