Daily Papers

We consider multi-draft speculative sampling, where the proposal sequences are sampled independently from different draft models. At each step, a token-level draft selection scheme takes a list of valid tokens as input and produces an output token whose distribution matches that of the target model. Previous works have demonstrated that the optimal scheme (which maximizes the probability of accepting one of the input tokens) can be cast as a solution to a linear program. In this work we show that the optimal scheme can be decomposed into a two-step solution: in the first step an importance sampling (IS) type scheme is used to select one intermediate token; in the second step (single-draft) speculative sampling is applied to generate the output token. For the case of two identical draft models we further 1) establish a necessary and sufficient condition on the distributions of the target and draft models for the acceptance probability to equal one and 2) provide an explicit expression for the optimal acceptance probability. Our theoretical analysis also motives a new class of token-level selection scheme based on weighted importance sampling. Our experimental results demonstrate consistent improvements in the achievable block efficiency and token rates over baseline schemes in a number of scenarios.

The present work explores the theoretical limits of Machine Learning (ML) within the framework of Kolmogorov's theory of Algorithmic Probability, which clarifies the notion of entropy as Expected Kolmogorov Complexity and formalizes other fundamental concepts such as Occam's razor via Levin's Universal Distribution. As a fundamental application, we develop Maximum Entropy methods that allow us to derive the Erdos--Kac Law in Probabilistic Number Theory, and establish the impossibility of discovering a formula for primes using Machine Learning via the Prime Coding Theorem.

Flying Triangulation sensors enable a free-hand and motion-robust 3D data acquisition of complex shaped objects. The measurement principle is based on a multi-line light-sectioning approach and uses sophisticated algorithms for real-time registration (S. Ettl et al., Appl. Opt. 51 (2012) 281-289). As "single-shot principle", light sectioning enables the option to get surface data from one single camera exposure. But there is a drawback: A pixel-dense measurement is not possible because of fundamental information-theoretical reasons. By "pixel-dense" we understand that each pixel displays individually measured distance information, neither interpolated from its neighbour pixels nor using lateral context information. Hence, for monomodal single-shot principles, the 3D data generated from one 2D raw image display a significantly lower space-bandwidth than the camera permits. This is the price one must pay for motion robustness. Currently, our sensors project about 10 lines (each with 1000 pixels), reaching an considerable lower data efficiency than theoretically possible for a single-shot sensor. Our aim is to push Flying Triangulation to its information-theoretical limits. Therefore, the line density as well as the measurement depth needs to be significantly increased. This causes serious indexing ambiguities. On the road to a single-shot 3D movie camera, we are working on solutions to overcome the problem of false line indexing by utilizing yet unexploited information. We will present several approaches and will discuss profound information-theoretical questions about the information efficiency of 3D sensors.

Randomized ensemble classifiers (RECs), where one classifier is randomly selected during inference, have emerged as an attractive alternative to traditional ensembling methods for realizing adversarially robust classifiers with limited compute requirements. However, recent works have shown that existing methods for constructing RECs are more vulnerable than initially claimed, casting major doubts on their efficacy and prompting fundamental questions such as: "When are RECs useful?", "What are their limits?", and "How do we train them?". In this work, we first demystify RECs as we derive fundamental results regarding their theoretical limits, necessary and sufficient conditions for them to be useful, and more. Leveraging this new understanding, we propose a new boosting algorithm (BARRE) for training robust RECs, and empirically demonstrate its effectiveness at defending against strong ell_infty norm-bounded adversaries across various network architectures and datasets. Our code can be found at https://github.com/hsndbk4/BARRE.

Machine learning-based computer-generated holography (ML-CGH) has advanced rapidly in recent years, yet progress is constrained by the limited availability of high-quality, large-scale hologram datasets. To address this, we present KOREATECH-CGH, a publicly available dataset comprising 6,000 pairs of RGB-D images and complex holograms across resolutions ranging from 256*256 to 2048*2048, with depth ranges extending to the theoretical limits of the angular spectrum method for wide 3D scene coverage. To improve hologram quality at large depth ranges, we introduce amplitude projection, a post-processing technique that replaces amplitude components of hologram wavefields at each depth layer while preserving phase. This approach enhances reconstruction fidelity, achieving 27.01 dB PSNR and 0.87 SSIM, surpassing a recent optimized silhouette-masking layer-based method by 2.03 dB and 0.04 SSIM, respectively. We further validate the utility of KOREATECH-CGH through experiments on hologram generation and super-resolution using state-of-the-art ML models, confirming its applicability for training and evaluating next-generation ML-CGH systems.

This work presents an information-theoretic perspective to group fairness trade-offs in federated learning (FL) with respect to sensitive attributes, such as gender, race, etc. Existing works often focus on either global fairness (overall disparity of the model across all clients) or local fairness (disparity of the model at each client), without always considering their trade-offs. There is a lack of understanding regarding the interplay between global and local fairness in FL, particularly under data heterogeneity, and if and when one implies the other. To address this gap, we leverage a body of work in information theory called partial information decomposition (PID), which first identifies three sources of unfairness in FL, namely, Unique Disparity, Redundant Disparity, and Masked Disparity. We demonstrate how these three disparities contribute to global and local fairness using canonical examples. This decomposition helps us derive fundamental limits on the trade-off between global and local fairness, highlighting where they agree or disagree. We introduce the Accuracy and Global-Local Fairness Optimality Problem (AGLFOP), a convex optimization that defines the theoretical limits of accuracy and fairness trade-offs, identifying the best possible performance any FL strategy can attain given a dataset and client distribution. We also present experimental results on synthetic datasets and the ADULT dataset to support our theoretical findings.

We develop a rigorous mathematical analysis of zero-shot learning with attributes. In this setting, the goal is to label novel classes with no training data, only detectors for attributes and a description of how those attributes are correlated with the target classes, called the class-attribute matrix. We develop the first non-trivial lower bound on the worst-case error of the best map from attributes to classes for this setting, even with perfect attribute detectors. The lower bound characterizes the theoretical intrinsic difficulty of the zero-shot problem based on the available information -- the class-attribute matrix -- and the bound is practically computable from it. Our lower bound is tight, as we show that we can always find a randomized map from attributes to classes whose expected error is upper bounded by the value of the lower bound. We show that our analysis can be predictive of how standard zero-shot methods behave in practice, including which classes will likely be confused with others.

Lion (Evolved Sign Momentum), a new optimizer discovered through program search, has shown promising results in training large AI models. It performs comparably or favorably to AdamW but with greater memory efficiency. As we can expect from the results of a random search program, Lion incorporates elements from several existing algorithms, including signed momentum, decoupled weight decay, Polak, and Nesterov momentum, but does not fit into any existing category of theoretically grounded optimizers. Thus, even though Lion appears to perform well as a general-purpose optimizer for a wide range of tasks, its theoretical basis remains uncertain. This lack of theoretical clarity limits opportunities to further enhance and expand Lion's efficacy. This work aims to demystify Lion. Based on both continuous-time and discrete-time analysis, we demonstrate that Lion is a theoretically novel and principled approach for minimizing a general loss function f(x) while enforcing a bound constraint |x|_infty leq 1/lambda. Lion achieves this through the incorporation of decoupled weight decay, where lambda represents the weight decay coefficient. Our analysis is made possible by the development of a new Lyapunov function for the Lion updates. It applies to a broader family of Lion-kappa algorithms, where the sign(cdot) operator in Lion is replaced by the subgradient of a convex function kappa, leading to the solution of a general composite optimization problem of min_x f(x) + kappa^*(x). Our findings provide valuable insights into the dynamics of Lion and pave the way for further improvements and extensions of Lion-related algorithms.

Parallel Speculative Decoding (PSD) accelerates traditional Speculative Decoding (SD) by overlapping draft generation with verification. However, it remains hampered by two fundamental challenges: (1) a theoretical speedup ceiling dictated by the speed ratio between the draft and target models, and (2) high computational waste and pipeline stall due to mid-sequence token rejections of early errors. To address these limitations, we introduce Double (Double Retrieval Speculative Parallelism). By bridging the gap between SD and PSD, our framework resolves the Retrieval Precision-Efficiency Dilemma through a novel synchronous mechanism. Specifically, we enable the draft model to execute iterative retrieval speculations to break the theoretical speedup limits; to alleviate rejections without rollback, the target model performs authoritative retrieval to generate multi-token guidance. Double is entirely training-free and lossless. Extensive experiments demonstrate state-of-the-art speedup of 5.3times on LLaMA3.3-70B and 2.8times on Qwen3-32B, significantly outperforming the advanced method EAGLE-3 that requires extensive model training.

Large language models demonstrate remarkable in-context learning capabilities, adapting to new tasks without parameter updates. While this phenomenon has been successfully modeled as implicit Bayesian inference, recent empirical findings reveal a fundamental contradiction: transformers systematically violate the martingale property, a cornerstone requirement of Bayesian updating on exchangeable data. This violation challenges the theoretical foundations underlying uncertainty quantification in critical applications. Our theoretical analysis establishes four key results: (1) positional encodings induce martingale violations of order Theta(log n / n); (2) transformers achieve information-theoretic optimality with excess risk O(n^{-1/2}) in expectation over orderings; (3) the implicit posterior representation converges to the true Bayesian posterior in the space of sufficient statistics; and (4) we derive the optimal chain-of-thought length as k^* = Theta(nlog(1/varepsilon)) with explicit constants, providing a principled approach to reduce inference costs while maintaining performance. Empirical validation on GPT-3 confirms predictions (1)-(3), with transformers reaching 99\% of theoretical entropy limits within 20 examples. Our framework provides practical methods for extracting calibrated uncertainty estimates from position-aware architectures and optimizing computational efficiency in deployment.

A range of recent works addresses the problem of compression of sequence of tokens into a shorter sequence of real-valued vectors to be used as inputs instead of token embeddings or key-value cache. These approaches allow to reduce the amount of compute in existing language models. Despite relying on powerful models as encoders, the maximum attainable lossless compression ratio is typically not higher than x10. This fact is highly intriguing because, in theory, the maximum information capacity of large real-valued vectors is far beyond the presented rates even for 16-bit precision and a modest vector size. In this work, we explore the limits of compression by replacing the encoder with a per-sample optimization procedure. We show that vectors with compression ratios up to x1500 exist, which highlights two orders of magnitude gap between existing and practically attainable solutions. Furthermore, we empirically show that the compression limits are determined not by the length of the input but by the amount of uncertainty to be reduced, namely, the cross-entropy loss on this sequence without any conditioning. The obtained limits highlight the substantial gap between the theoretical capacity of input embeddings and their practical utilization, suggesting significant room for optimization in model design.

A crucial requirement for reliable deployment of deep learning models for safety-critical applications is the ability to identify out-of-distribution (OOD) data points, samples which differ from the training data and on which a model might underperform. Previous work has attempted to tackle this problem using uncertainty estimation techniques. However, there is empirical evidence that a large family of these techniques do not detect OOD reliably in classification tasks. This paper gives a theoretical explanation for said experimental findings and illustrates it on synthetic data. We prove that such techniques are not able to reliably identify OOD samples in a classification setting, since their level of confidence is generalized to unseen areas of the feature space. This result stems from the interplay between the representation of ReLU networks as piece-wise affine transformations, the saturating nature of activation functions like softmax, and the most widely-used uncertainty metrics.

We establish a fundamental connection between score-based diffusion models and non-equilibrium thermodynamics by deriving performance limits based on entropy rates. Our main theoretical contribution is a lower bound on the negative log-likelihood of the data that relates model performance to entropy rates of diffusion processes. We numerically validate this bound on a synthetic dataset and investigate its tightness. By building a bridge to entropy rates - system, intrinsic, and exchange entropy - we provide new insights into the thermodynamic operation of these models, drawing parallels to Maxwell's demon and implications for thermodynamic computing hardware. Our framework connects generative modeling performance to fundamental physical principles through stochastic thermodynamics.

Cells that collide with each other repolarize away from contact, in a process called contact inhibition of locomotion (CIL), which is necessary for correct development of the embryo. CIL can occur even when cells make a micron-scale contact with a neighbor - much smaller than their size. How precisely can a cell sense cell-cell contact and repolarize in the correct direction? What factors control whether a cell recognizes it has contacted a neighbor? We propose a theoretical model for the limits of CIL where cells recognize the presence of another cell by binding the protein ephrin with the Eph receptor. This recognition is made difficult by the presence of interfering ligands that bind nonspecifically. Both theoretical predictions and simulation results show that it becomes more difficult to sense cell-cell contact when it is difficult to distinguish ephrin from the interfering ligands, or when there are more interfering ligands, or when the contact width decreases. However, the error of estimating contact position remains almost constant when the contact width changes. This happens because the cell gains spatial information largely from the boundaries of cell-cell contact. We study using statistical decision theory the likelihood of a false positive CIL event in the absence of cell-cell contact, and the likelihood of a false negative where CIL does not occur when another cell is present. Our results suggest that the cell is more likely to make incorrect decisions when the contact width is very small or so large that it nears the cell's perimeter. However, in general, we find that cells have the ability to make reasonably reliable CIL decisions even for very narrow (micron-scale) contacts, even if the concentration of interfering ligands is ten times that of the correct ligands.

Recently, Visual Autoregressive (VAR) Models introduced a groundbreaking advancement in the field of image generation, offering a scalable approach through a coarse-to-fine "next-scale prediction" paradigm. However, the state-of-the-art algorithm of VAR models in [Tian, Jiang, Yuan, Peng and Wang, NeurIPS 2024] takes O(n^4) time, which is computationally inefficient. In this work, we analyze the computational limits and efficiency criteria of VAR Models through a fine-grained complexity lens. Our key contribution is identifying the conditions under which VAR computations can achieve sub-quadratic time complexity. Specifically, we establish a critical threshold for the norm of input matrices used in VAR attention mechanisms. Above this threshold, assuming the Strong Exponential Time Hypothesis (SETH) from fine-grained complexity theory, a sub-quartic time algorithm for VAR models is impossible. To substantiate our theoretical findings, we present efficient constructions leveraging low-rank approximations that align with the derived criteria. This work initiates the study of the computational efficiency of the VAR model from a theoretical perspective. Our technique will shed light on advancing scalable and efficient image generation in VAR frameworks.

Existing reinforcement learning (RL)-based post-training methods for large language models have advanced rapidly, yet their design has largely been guided by heuristics rather than systematic theoretical principles. This gap limits our understanding of the properties of the gradient estimators and the associated optimization algorithms, thereby constraining opportunities to improve training stability and overall performance. In this work, we provide a unified theoretical framework that characterizes the statistical properties of commonly used policy-gradient estimators under mild assumptions. Our analysis establishes unbiasedness, derives exact variance expressions, and yields an optimization-loss upper bound that enables principled reasoning about learning dynamics. Building on these results, we prove convergence guarantees and derive an adaptive learning-rate schedule governed by the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of gradients. We further show that the variance-optimal baseline is a gradient-weighted estimator, offering a new principle for variance reduction and naturally enhancing stability beyond existing methods. These insights motivate Optimal Baseline and Learning-Rate Policy Optimization (OBLR-PO), an algorithm that jointly adapts learning rates and baselines in a theoretically grounded manner. Experiments on Qwen3-4B-Base and Qwen3-8B-Base demonstrate consistent gains over existing policy optimization methods, validating that our theoretical contributions translate into practical improvements in large-scale post-training.

Normalization layers are one of the key building blocks for deep neural networks. Several theoretical studies have shown that batch normalization improves the signal propagation, by avoiding the representations from becoming collinear across the layers. However, results on mean-field theory of batch normalization also conclude that this benefit comes at the expense of exploding gradients in depth. Motivated by these two aspects of batch normalization, in this study we pose the following question: "Can a batch-normalized network keep the optimal signal propagation properties, but avoid exploding gradients?" We answer this question in the affirmative by giving a particular construction of an Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) with linear activations and batch-normalization that provably has bounded gradients at any depth. Based on Weingarten calculus, we develop a rigorous and non-asymptotic theory for this constructed MLP that gives a precise characterization of forward signal propagation, while proving that gradients remain bounded for linearly independent input samples, which holds in most practical settings. Inspired by our theory, we also design an activation shaping scheme that empirically achieves the same properties for certain non-linear activations.

We carry out an information-theoretical analysis of a two-layer neural network trained from input-output pairs generated by a teacher network with matching architecture, in overparametrized regimes. Our results come in the form of bounds relating i) the mutual information between training data and network weights, or ii) the Bayes-optimal generalization error, to the same quantities but for a simpler (generalized) linear model for which explicit expressions are rigorously known. Our bounds, which are expressed in terms of the number of training samples, input dimension and number of hidden units, thus yield fundamental performance limits for any neural network (and actually any learning procedure) trained from limited data generated according to our two-layer teacher neural network model. The proof relies on rigorous tools from spin glasses and is guided by ``Gaussian equivalence principles'' lying at the core of numerous recent analyses of neural networks. With respect to the existing literature, which is either non-rigorous or restricted to the case of the learning of the readout weights only, our results are information-theoretic (i.e. are not specific to any learning algorithm) and, importantly, cover a setting where all the network parameters are trained.

Vector embeddings have been tasked with an ever-increasing set of retrieval tasks over the years, with a nascent rise in using them for reasoning, instruction-following, coding, and more. These new benchmarks push embeddings to work for any query and any notion of relevance that could be given. While prior works have pointed out theoretical limitations of vector embeddings, there is a common assumption that these difficulties are exclusively due to unrealistic queries, and those that are not can be overcome with better training data and larger models. In this work, we demonstrate that we may encounter these theoretical limitations in realistic settings with extremely simple queries. We connect known results in learning theory, showing that the number of top-k subsets of documents capable of being returned as the result of some query is limited by the dimension of the embedding. We empirically show that this holds true even if we restrict to k=2, and directly optimize on the test set with free parameterized embeddings. We then create a realistic dataset called LIMIT that stress tests models based on these theoretical results, and observe that even state-of-the-art models fail on this dataset despite the simple nature of the task. Our work shows the limits of embedding models under the existing single vector paradigm and calls for future research to develop methods that can resolve this fundamental limitation.

Quantizing large language models has become a standard way to reduce their memory and computational costs. Typically, existing methods focus on breaking down the problem into individual layer-wise sub-problems, and minimizing per-layer error, measured via various metrics. Yet, this approach currently lacks theoretical justification and the metrics employed may be sub-optimal. In this paper, we present a "linearity theorem" establishing a direct relationship between the layer-wise ell_2 reconstruction error and the model perplexity increase due to quantization. This insight enables two novel applications: (1) a simple data-free LLM quantization method using Hadamard rotations and MSE-optimal grids, dubbed HIGGS, which outperforms all prior data-free approaches such as the extremely popular NF4 quantized format, and (2) an optimal solution to the problem of finding non-uniform per-layer quantization levels which match a given compression constraint in the medium-bitwidth regime, obtained by reduction to dynamic programming. On the practical side, we demonstrate improved accuracy-compression trade-offs on Llama-3.1 and 3.2-family models, as well as on Qwen-family models. Further, we show that our method can be efficiently supported in terms of GPU kernels at various batch sizes, advancing both data-free and non-uniform quantization for LLMs.

Tokenization is the first - and often underappreciated - layer of computation in language models. While Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting enables transformer models to approximate recurrent computation by externalizing intermediate steps, we show that the success of such reasoning is fundamentally bounded by the structure of tokenized inputs. This work presents a theoretical and empirical investigation into how tokenization schemes, particularly subword-based methods like byte-pair encoding (BPE), impede symbolic computation by merging or obscuring atomic reasoning units. We introduce the notion of Token Awareness to formalize how poor token granularity disrupts logical alignment and prevents models from generalizing symbolic procedures. Through systematic evaluation on arithmetic and symbolic tasks, we demonstrate that token structure dramatically affect reasoning performance, causing failure even with CoT, while atomically-aligned formats unlock strong generalization, allowing small models (e.g., GPT-4o-mini) to outperform larger systems (e.g., o1) in structured reasoning. Our findings reveal that symbolic reasoning ability in LLMs is not purely architectural, but deeply conditioned on token-level representations.

We show that taking the width and depth to infinity in a deep neural network with skip connections, when branches are scaled by 1/depth (the only nontrivial scaling), result in the same covariance structure no matter how that limit is taken. This explains why the standard infinite-width-then-depth approach provides practical insights even for networks with depth of the same order as width. We also demonstrate that the pre-activations, in this case, have Gaussian distributions which has direct applications in Bayesian deep learning. We conduct extensive simulations that show an excellent match with our theoretical findings.

Transformer large language models (LLMs) have sparked admiration for their exceptional performance on tasks that demand intricate multi-step reasoning. Yet, these models simultaneously show failures on surprisingly trivial problems. This begs the question: Are these errors incidental, or do they signal more substantial limitations? In an attempt to demystify Transformers, we investigate the limits of these models across three representative compositional tasks -- multi-digit multiplication, logic grid puzzles, and a classic dynamic programming problem. These tasks require breaking problems down into sub-steps and synthesizing these steps into a precise answer. We formulate compositional tasks as computation graphs to systematically quantify the level of complexity, and break down reasoning steps into intermediate sub-procedures. Our empirical findings suggest that Transformers solve compositional tasks by reducing multi-step compositional reasoning into linearized subgraph matching, without necessarily developing systematic problem-solving skills. To round off our empirical study, we provide theoretical arguments on abstract multi-step reasoning problems that highlight how Transformers' performance will rapidly decay with increased task complexity.

In this work, we explore two classes of density dependent relativistic mean-field models, their predictions of proton fractions at high densities and neutron star structure. We have used a metamodelling approach to these relativistic density functionals. We have generated a large ensemble of models with these classes and then applied constraints from theoretical and experimental nuclear physics and astrophysical observations. We find that both models produce similar equations of state and neutron star mass-radius sequences. But, their underlying compositions, denoted by the proton fraction in this case, are vastly different. This reinstates previous findings that information on composition gets masqueraded in beta-equilibrium. Additional observations of non-equilibrium phenomena are necessary to pin it down.

Autoencoders are a popular model in many branches of machine learning and lossy data compression. However, their fundamental limits, the performance of gradient methods and the features learnt during optimization remain poorly understood, even in the two-layer setting. In fact, earlier work has considered either linear autoencoders or specific training regimes (leading to vanishing or diverging compression rates). Our paper addresses this gap by focusing on non-linear two-layer autoencoders trained in the challenging proportional regime in which the input dimension scales linearly with the size of the representation. Our results characterize the minimizers of the population risk, and show that such minimizers are achieved by gradient methods; their structure is also unveiled, thus leading to a concise description of the features obtained via training. For the special case of a sign activation function, our analysis establishes the fundamental limits for the lossy compression of Gaussian sources via (shallow) autoencoders. Finally, while the results are proved for Gaussian data, numerical simulations on standard datasets display the universality of the theoretical predictions.

Indiscriminate data poisoning attacks aim to decrease a model's test accuracy by injecting a small amount of corrupted training data. Despite significant interest, existing attacks remain relatively ineffective against modern machine learning (ML) architectures. In this work, we introduce the notion of model poisoning reachability as a technical tool to explore the intrinsic limits of data poisoning attacks towards target parameters (i.e., model-targeted attacks). We derive an easily computable threshold to establish and quantify a surprising phase transition phenomenon among popular ML models: data poisoning attacks can achieve certain target parameters only when the poisoning ratio exceeds our threshold. Building on existing parameter corruption attacks and refining the Gradient Canceling attack, we perform extensive experiments to confirm our theoretical findings, test the predictability of our transition threshold, and significantly improve existing indiscriminate data poisoning baselines over a range of datasets and models. Our work highlights the critical role played by the poisoning ratio, and sheds new insights on existing empirical results, attacks and mitigation strategies in data poisoning.

Inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) denotes a powerful family of algorithms for recovering a reward function justifying the behavior demonstrated by an expert agent. A well-known limitation of IRL is the ambiguity in the choice of the reward function, due to the existence of multiple rewards that explain the observed behavior. This limitation has been recently circumvented by formulating IRL as the problem of estimating the feasible reward set, i.e., the region of the rewards compatible with the expert's behavior. In this paper, we make a step towards closing the theory gap of IRL in the case of finite-horizon problems with a generative model. We start by formally introducing the problem of estimating the feasible reward set, the corresponding PAC requirement, and discussing the properties of particular classes of rewards. Then, we provide the first minimax lower bound on the sample complexity for the problem of estimating the feasible reward set of order {Omega}Bigl( H^3SA{epsilon^2} bigl( log bigl(1{delta}bigl) + S bigl)Bigl), being S and A the number of states and actions respectively, H the horizon, epsilon the desired accuracy, and delta the confidence. We analyze the sample complexity of a uniform sampling strategy (US-IRL), proving a matching upper bound up to logarithmic factors. Finally, we outline several open questions in IRL and propose future research directions.

Earth remains the only known example of a planet with technology, and future projections of Earth's trajectory provide a basis and motivation for approaching the search for extraterrestrial technospheres. Conventional approaches toward projecting Earth's technosphere include applications of the Kardashev scale, which suggest the possibility that energy-intensive civilizations may expand to harness the entire energy output available to their planet, host star, or even the entire galaxy. In this study, we argue that the Kardashev scale is better understood as a "luminosity limit" that describes the maximum capacity for a civilization to harvest luminous stellar energy across a given spatial domain, and we note that thermodynamic efficiency will always keep a luminosity-limited technosphere from actually reaching this theoretical limit. We suggest the possibility that an advanced technosphere might evolve beyond this luminosity limit to draw its energy directly from harvesting stellar mass, and we also discuss possible trajectories that could exist between Earth today and such hypothetical "stellivores." We develop a framework to describe trajectories for long-lived technospheres that optimize their growth strategies between exploration and exploitation, unlike Earth today. We note that analyses of compact accreting stars could provide ways to test the stellivore hypothesis, and we more broadly suggest an expansion of technosignature search strategies beyond those that reside exactly at the luminosity limit.

With infinitely many high-quality data points, infinite computational power, an infinitely large foundation model with a perfect training algorithm and guaranteed zero generalization error on the pretext task, can the model be used for everything? This question cannot be answered by the existing theory of representation, optimization or generalization, because the issues they mainly investigate are assumed to be nonexistent here. In this paper, we show that category theory provides powerful machinery to answer this question. We have proved three results. The first one limits the power of prompt-based learning, saying that the model can solve a downstream task with prompts if and only if the task is representable. The second one says fine tuning does not have this limit, as a foundation model with the minimum required power (up to symmetry) can theoretically solve downstream tasks for the category defined by pretext task, with fine tuning and enough resources. Our final result can be seen as a new type of generalization theorem, showing that the foundation model can generate unseen objects from the target category (e.g., images) using the structural information from the source category (e.g., texts). Along the way, we provide a categorical framework for supervised and self-supervised learning, which might be of independent interest.

Recent advances in large reasoning models highlight Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) as a promising method for enhancing AI's capabilities, particularly in solving complex logical tasks. However, it remains unclear whether RLVR truly expands a model's reasoning boundary or merely amplifies high-reward outputs that the base model already knows for improved precision. This study presents a theoretical and empirical investigation that provides fresh insights into the potential limits of RLVR. First, we offer a new theoretical perspective that RLVR is constrained by the base model's support-unable to sample solutions with zero initial probability-and operates as a conservative reweighting mechanism that may restrict the discovery of entirely original solutions. We also identify an entropy-reward tradeoff: while RLVR reliably enhances precision, it may progressively narrow exploration and potentially overlook correct yet underrepresented solutions. Extensive empirical experiments validate that while RLVR consistently improves pass@1, the shrinkage of empirical support generally outweighs the expansion of empirical support under larger sampling budgets, failing to recover correct answers that were previously accessible to the base model. Interestingly, we also observe that while RLVR sometimes increases token-level entropy, resulting in greater uncertainty at each generation step, answer-level entropy declines, indicating that these seemingly more uncertain paths ultimately converge onto a smaller set of distinct answers. Taken together, these findings reveal potential limits of RLVR in extending reasoning horizons. Breaking this invisible leash may require future algorithmic innovations such as explicit exploration mechanisms or hybrid strategies that seed probability mass into underrepresented solution regions.

Context. Three kilometer-sized interstellar objects (ISOs) have been detected transiting the Solar System, and spacecraft have directly measured micrometer-scale interstellar dust (ISD). Yet no intermediate-size interstellar meteoroids have been identified in current meteor surveys. Aims. We test whether a power-law flux extrapolation connecting spacecraft ISD and kilometer-scale ISOs is consistent with meteor surveys, and we quantify the expected interstellar impacting flux based on various observational reports. Methods. We compiled differential fluxes and limits from spacecraft ISD, radar and optical meteor surveys, and theoretical estimates. We evaluated the power-law size-frequency fits, computed the 3I-like flux, and compared measured fluxes to predictions. Results. The spacecraft-measured dust flux exceeds extrapolations constrained by meteor surveys and kilometer-scale ISOs by sim2-7 orders of magnitude. An r^{-3.0} fit combining spacecraft ISD detections with kilometer-scale ISOs overpredicts the number of meteors with hyperbolic orbits, whereas slopes of r^{-2.7}-r^{-2.3} (derived from radar and optical meteor upper limits, respectively) instead yield interplanetary-to-interstellar flux ratios of 10^{3}-10^{6}. Conclusions. A simple power-law from ISD to ISOs is inconsistent with meteor survey constraints and yields unrealistic predictions for interstellar meteoroids. The data reveal a gap between submicron dust entrained in the Local Interstellar Cloud (LIC) and macroscopic bodies ejected from planetary systems. This gap may reflect distinct origins and destruction-transport processes rather than a continuous size-frequency distribution. This would imply either the dominance of a small-particle LIC component or the need to reassess spacecraft dust fluxes.

The successes of modern deep machine learning methods are founded on their ability to transform inputs across multiple layers to build good high-level representations. It is therefore critical to understand this process of representation learning. However, standard theoretical approaches (formally NNGPs) involving infinite width limits eliminate representation learning. We therefore develop a new infinite width limit, the Bayesian representation learning limit, that exhibits representation learning mirroring that in finite-width models, yet at the same time, retains some of the simplicity of standard infinite-width limits. In particular, we show that Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) in the Bayesian representation learning limit have exactly multivariate Gaussian posteriors, and the posterior covariances can be obtained by optimizing an interpretable objective combining a log-likelihood to improve performance with a series of KL-divergences which keep the posteriors close to the prior. We confirm these results experimentally in wide but finite DGPs. Next, we introduce the possibility of using this limit and objective as a flexible, deep generalisation of kernel methods, that we call deep kernel machines (DKMs). Like most naive kernel methods, DKMs scale cubically in the number of datapoints. We therefore use methods from the Gaussian process inducing point literature to develop a sparse DKM that scales linearly in the number of datapoints. Finally, we extend these approaches to NNs (which have non-Gaussian posteriors) in the Appendices.

Although transformers are remarkably effective for many tasks, there are some surprisingly easy-looking regular languages that they struggle with. Hahn shows that for languages where acceptance depends on a single input symbol, a transformer's classification decisions become less and less confident (that is, with cross-entropy approaching 1 bit per string) as input strings get longer and longer. We examine this limitation using two languages: PARITY, the language of bit strings with an odd number of 1s, and FIRST, the language of bit strings starting with a 1. We demonstrate three ways of overcoming the limitation suggested by Hahn's lemma. First, we settle an open question by constructing a transformer that recognizes PARITY with perfect accuracy, and similarly for FIRST. Second, we use layer normalization to bring the cross-entropy of both models arbitrarily close to zero. Third, when transformers need to focus on a single position, as for FIRST, we find that they can fail to generalize to longer strings; we offer a simple remedy to this problem that also improves length generalization in machine translation.

The "theoretical limit of time-frequency resolution in Fourier analysis" is thought to originate in certain mathematical and/or physical limitations. This, however, is not true. The actual origin arises from the numerical (technical) method deployed to reduce computation time. In addition, there is a gap between the theoretical equation for Fourier analysis and its numerical implementation. Knowing the facts brings us practical benefits. In this case, these related to boundary conditions, and complex integrals. For example, replacing a Fourier integral with a complex integral brings a hybrid method for the Laplace and Fourier transforms, and reveals another perspective on time-frequency analysis. We present such a perspective here with a simple demonstrative analysis.

The adoption of Large Language Models (LLMs) as automated evaluators (LLM-as-a-judge) has revealed critical inconsistencies in current evaluation frameworks. We identify two fundamental types of inconsistencies: (1) Score-Comparison Inconsistency, where lower-rated responses outperform higher-scored ones in pairwise comparisons, and (2) Pairwise Transitivity Inconsistency, manifested through circular preference chains (A>B>C>A) and equivalence contradictions (A=B=C\neq A). We argue that these issues come from information loss in discrete rating systems and ambiguous tie judgments during pairwise evaluation. We propose TrustJudge, a probabilistic framework that addresses these limitations through two key innovations: 1) distribution-sensitive scoring that computes continuous expectations from discrete rating probabilities, preserving information entropy for more precise scoring, and 2) likelihood-aware aggregation that resolves transitivity violations using bidirectional preference probabilities or perplexity. We also formalize the theoretical limitations of current LLM-as-a-judge frameworks and demonstrate how TrustJudge's components overcome them. When evaluated with Llama-3.1-70B-Instruct as judge using our dataset, TrustJudge reduces Score-Comparison inconsistency by 8.43% (from 23.32% to 14.89%) and Pairwise Transitivity inconsistency by 10.82% (from 15.22% to 4.40%), while maintaining higher evaluation accuracy. Our work provides the first systematic analysis of evaluation framework inconsistencies in LLM-as-a-judge paradigms, offering both theoretical insights and practical solutions for reliable automated assessment. The framework demonstrates consistent improvements across various model architectures and scales, enabling more trustworthy LLM evaluation without requiring additional training or human annotations. The codes can be found at https://github.com/TrustJudge/TrustJudge.

Locating the source of an epidemic, or patient zero (P0), can provide critical insights into the infection's transmission course and allow efficient resource allocation. Existing methods use graph-theoretic centrality measures and expensive message-passing algorithms, requiring knowledge of the underlying dynamics and its parameters. In this paper, we revisit this problem using graph neural networks (GNNs) to learn P0. We establish a theoretical limit for the identification of P0 in a class of epidemic models. We evaluate our method against different epidemic models on both synthetic and a real-world contact network considering a disease with history and characteristics of COVID-19. % We observe that GNNs can identify P0 close to the theoretical bound on accuracy, without explicit input of dynamics or its parameters. In addition, GNN is over 100 times faster than classic methods for inference on arbitrary graph topologies. Our theoretical bound also shows that the epidemic is like a ticking clock, emphasizing the importance of early contact-tracing. We find a maximum time after which accurate recovery of the source becomes impossible, regardless of the algorithm used.

Online Normalization is a new technique for normalizing the hidden activations of a neural network. Like Batch Normalization, it normalizes the sample dimension. While Online Normalization does not use batches, it is as accurate as Batch Normalization. We resolve a theoretical limitation of Batch Normalization by introducing an unbiased technique for computing the gradient of normalized activations. Online Normalization works with automatic differentiation by adding statistical normalization as a primitive. This technique can be used in cases not covered by some other normalizers, such as recurrent networks, fully connected networks, and networks with activation memory requirements prohibitive for batching. We show its applications to image classification, image segmentation, and language modeling. We present formal proofs and experimental results on ImageNet, CIFAR, and PTB datasets.

The Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architecture enables a significant increase in the total number of model parameters with minimal computational overhead. However, it is not clear what performance tradeoffs, if any, exist between MoEs and standard dense transformers. In this paper, we show that as we increase the number of experts (while fixing the number of active parameters), the memorization performance consistently increases while the reasoning capabilities saturate. We begin by analyzing the theoretical limitations of MoEs at reasoning. We prove that there exist graph problems that cannot be solved by any number of experts of a certain width; however, the same task can be easily solved by a dense model with a slightly larger width. On the other hand, we find that on memory-intensive tasks, MoEs can effectively leverage a small number of active parameters with a large number of experts to memorize the data. We empirically validate these findings on synthetic graph problems and memory-intensive closed book retrieval tasks. Lastly, we pre-train a series of MoEs and dense transformers and evaluate them on commonly used benchmarks in math and natural language. We find that increasing the number of experts helps solve knowledge-intensive tasks, but fails to yield the same benefits for reasoning tasks.

We study the problem of classification with a reject option for a fixed predictor, applicable in natural language processing. We introduce a new problem formulation for this scenario, and an algorithm minimizing a new surrogate loss function. We provide a complete theoretical analysis of the surrogate loss function with a strong H-consistency guarantee. For evaluation, we choose the decontextualization task, and provide a manually-labelled dataset of 2mathord,000 examples. Our algorithm significantly outperforms the baselines considered, with a sim!!25% improvement in coverage when halving the error rate, which is only sim!! 3 % away from the theoretical limit.

Time series forecasting (TSF) remains a challenging and largely unsolved problem in machine learning, despite significant recent efforts leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs), which predominantly rely on Transformer architectures. Empirical evidence consistently shows that even powerful Transformers often fail to outperform much simpler models, e.g., linear models, on TSF tasks; however, a rigorous theoretical understanding of this phenomenon remains limited. In this paper, we provide a theoretical analysis of Transformers' limitations for TSF through the lens of In-Context Learning (ICL) theory. Specifically, under AR(p) data, we establish that: (1) Linear Self-Attention (LSA) models cannot achieve lower expected MSE than classical linear models for in-context forecasting; (2) as the context length approaches to infinity, LSA asymptotically recovers the optimal linear predictor; and (3) under Chain-of-Thought (CoT) style inference, predictions collapse to the mean exponentially. We empirically validate these findings through carefully designed experiments. Our theory not only sheds light on several previously underexplored phenomena but also offers practical insights for designing more effective forecasting architectures. We hope our work encourages the broader research community to revisit the fundamental theoretical limitations of TSF and to critically evaluate the direct application of increasingly sophisticated architectures without deeper scrutiny.

Most offline reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms return a target policy maximizing a trade-off between (1) the expected performance gain over the behavior policy that collected the dataset, and (2) the risk stemming from the out-of-distribution-ness of the induced state-action occupancy. It follows that the performance of the target policy is strongly related to the performance of the behavior policy and, thus, the trajectory return distribution of the dataset. We show that in mixed datasets consisting of mostly low-return trajectories and minor high-return trajectories, state-of-the-art offline RL algorithms are overly restrained by low-return trajectories and fail to exploit high-performing trajectories to the fullest. To overcome this issue, we show that, in deterministic MDPs with stochastic initial states, the dataset sampling can be re-weighted to induce an artificial dataset whose behavior policy has a higher return. This re-weighted sampling strategy may be combined with any offline RL algorithm. We further analyze that the opportunity for performance improvement over the behavior policy correlates with the positive-sided variance of the returns of the trajectories in the dataset. We empirically show that while CQL, IQL, and TD3+BC achieve only a part of this potential policy improvement, these same algorithms combined with our reweighted sampling strategy fully exploit the dataset. Furthermore, we empirically demonstrate that, despite its theoretical limitation, the approach may still be efficient in stochastic environments. The code is available at https://github.com/Improbable-AI/harness-offline-rl.

Large language models (LLMs) have revolutionized artificial intelligence, yet their massive memory and computational demands necessitate aggressive quantization, increasingly pushing representations toward the theoretical limit of a single bit. While complex-valued LLMs, such as iFairy, offer a superior chance for low-bit representation compared to real-valued counterparts, they require training from scratch, preventing the utilization of the vast ecosystem of pre-trained real-valued foundation models. Here we present Fairy2i, a universal framework that transforms pre-trained real-valued layers into an equivalent widely-linear complex form, enabling extremely low-bit quantization while reusing existing checkpoints. By proving a lossless mathematical equivalence between real and widely-linear maps, we convert standard Transformers into the complex domain and employ a phase-aware quantization scheme with a highly efficient codebook of fourth roots of unity. Furthermore, we introduce a recursive residual quantization mechanism that iteratively minimizes quantization error, allowing inference to proceed via efficient multiplication-free accumulation. We demonstrate that Fairy2i restores the performance of LLaMA-2 7B at an effective 2-bit precision to levels nearly comparable with full-precision baselines, significantly outperforming state-of-the-art real-valued binary and ternary quantization methods. This work bridges the gap between the representational efficiency of complex-valued arithmetic and the practical utility of pre-trained models, paving a new way for efficient inference on commodity hardware.

The ever-growing ecosystem of LLMs has posed a challenge in selecting the most appropriate pre-trained model to fine-tune amidst a sea of options. Given constrained resources, fine-tuning all models and making selections afterward is unrealistic. In this work, we formulate this resource-constrained selection task into predicting fine-tuning performance and illustrate its natural connection with scaling laws. Unlike pre-training, We find that the fine-tuning scaling curve includes not just the well-known "power phase" but also the previously unobserved "pre-power phase". We also explain why existing scaling laws fail to capture this phase transition phenomenon both theoretically and empirically. To address this, we introduce the concept of "pre-learned data size" into our rectified scaling law, which overcomes theoretical limitations and fits experimental results much better. By leveraging our law, we propose a novel LLM selection algorithm that selects the near-optimal model with hundreds of times less resource consumption, while other methods may provide negatively correlated selection.

Prompting and contextual-based fine-tuning methods, which we call Prefix Learning, have been proposed to enhance the performance of language models on various downstream tasks that can match full parameter fine-tuning. There remains a limited theoretical understanding of how these methods work. In this paper, we aim to relieve this limitation by studying the learning ability of Prefix Learning from the perspective of prefix length. In particular, we approximate the infinite-long Prefix Learning optimization process by the Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK) technique. We formulate and solve it as a learning problem of the infinite-long prefix in a one-layer attention network. Our results confirm the over-parameterization property and arbitrary small loss convergence guarantee of the infinite-long Prefix Learning in attention. To the implementation end, we propose our NTK-Attention method, which is "equivalent" to attention computation with arbitrary prefix length efficiently. Its time complexity mainly depends on the sub-quadratic of input length (without prefix), and our method only requires d^2 + d extra parameters for representation, where d is the feature dimension. In addition, we conducted experiments that compare our NTK-Attention with full parameters fine-tuning, LoRA, and P-Tuning V2 methods across vision or natural language datasets. The results indicate our approach may be a promising parameter-efficient-fine-tuning method since it has demonstrated superior performance in numerous scenarios. Our code can be found at https://github.com/ChristianYang37/chiwun/tree/main/src/NTK-Attention.

Contrastive learning is a powerful self-supervised learning method, but we have a limited theoretical understanding of how it works and why it works. In this paper, we prove that contrastive learning with the standard InfoNCE loss is equivalent to spectral clustering on the similarity graph. Using this equivalence as the building block, we extend our analysis to the CLIP model and rigorously characterize how similar multi-modal objects are embedded together. Motivated by our theoretical insights, we introduce the kernel mixture loss, incorporating novel kernel functions that outperform the standard Gaussian kernel on several vision datasets.

The Distributionally Robust Markov Decision Process (DRMDP) is a popular framework for addressing dynamics shift in reinforcement learning by learning policies robust to the worst-case transition dynamics within a constrained set. However, solving its dual optimization oracle poses significant challenges, limiting theoretical analysis and computational efficiency. The recently proposed Robust Regularized Markov Decision Process (RRMDP) replaces the uncertainty set constraint with a regularization term on the value function, offering improved scalability and theoretical insights. Yet, existing RRMDP methods rely on unstructured regularization, often leading to overly conservative policies by considering transitions that are unrealistic. To address these issues, we propose a novel framework, the d-rectangular linear robust regularized Markov decision process (d-RRMDP), which introduces a linear latent structure into both transition kernels and regularization. For the offline RL setting, where an agent learns robust policies from a pre-collected dataset in the nominal environment, we develop a family of algorithms, Robust Regularized Pessimistic Value Iteration (R2PVI), employing linear function approximation and f-divergence based regularization terms on transition kernels. We provide instance-dependent upper bounds on the suboptimality gap of R2PVI policies, showing these bounds depend on how well the dataset covers state-action spaces visited by the optimal robust policy under robustly admissible transitions. This term is further shown to be fundamental to d-RRMDPs via information-theoretic lower bounds. Finally, numerical experiments validate that R2PVI learns robust policies and is computationally more efficient than methods for constrained DRMDPs.

Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) stands as a cornerstone optimization algorithm with proven real-world empirical successes but relatively limited theoretical understanding. Recent research has illuminated a key factor contributing to its practical efficacy: the implicit regularization it instigates. Several studies have investigated the linear stability property of SGD in the vicinity of a stationary point as a predictive proxy for sharpness and generalization error in overparameterized neural networks (Wu et al., 2022; Jastrzebski et al., 2019; Cohen et al., 2021). In this paper, we delve deeper into the relationship between linear stability and sharpness. More specifically, we meticulously delineate the necessary and sufficient conditions for linear stability, contingent on hyperparameters of SGD and the sharpness at the optimum. Towards this end, we introduce a novel coherence measure of the loss Hessian that encapsulates pertinent geometric properties of the loss function that are relevant to the linear stability of SGD. It enables us to provide a simplified sufficient condition for identifying linear instability at an optimum. Notably, compared to previous works, our analysis relies on significantly milder assumptions and is applicable for a broader class of loss functions than known before, encompassing not only mean-squared error but also cross-entropy loss.

In scientific research, limitations refer to the shortcomings, constraints, or weaknesses within a study. Transparent reporting of such limitations can enhance the quality and reproducibility of research and improve public trust in science. However, authors often a) underreport them in the paper text and b) use hedging strategies to satisfy editorial requirements at the cost of readers' clarity and confidence. This underreporting behavior, along with an explosion in the number of publications, has created a pressing need to automatically extract or generate such limitations from scholarly papers. In this direction, we present a complete architecture for the computational analysis of research limitations. Specifically, we create a dataset of limitations in ACL, NeurIPS, and PeerJ papers by extracting them from papers' text and integrating them with external reviews; we propose methods to automatically generate them using a novel Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) technique; we create a fine-grained evaluation framework for generated limitations; and we provide a meta-evaluation for the proposed evaluation techniques.

We use the AdS/CFT correspondence to compute the conductivity of massive N=2 hypermultiplet fields at finite baryon number density in an N=4 SU(N_c) super-Yang-Mills theory plasma in the large N_c, large 't Hooft coupling limit. The finite baryon density provides charge carriers analogous to electrons in a metal. An external electric field then induces a finite current which we determine directly. Our result for the conductivity is good for all values of the mass, external field and density, modulo statements about the yet-incomplete phase diagram. In the appropriate limits it agrees with known results obtained from analyzing small fluctuations around equilibrium. For large mass, where we expect a good quasi-particle description, we compute the drag force on the charge carriers and find that the answer is unchanged from the zero density case. Our method easily generalizes to a wide class of systems of probe branes in various backgrounds.

Peer review is fundamental to scientific research, but the growing volume of publications has intensified the challenges of this expertise-intensive process. While LLMs show promise in various scientific tasks, their potential to assist with peer review, particularly in identifying paper limitations, remains understudied. We first present a comprehensive taxonomy of limitation types in scientific research, with a focus on AI. Guided by this taxonomy, for studying limitations, we present LimitGen, the first comprehensive benchmark for evaluating LLMs' capability to support early-stage feedback and complement human peer review. Our benchmark consists of two subsets: LimitGen-Syn, a synthetic dataset carefully created through controlled perturbations of high-quality papers, and LimitGen-Human, a collection of real human-written limitations. To improve the ability of LLM systems to identify limitations, we augment them with literature retrieval, which is essential for grounding identifying limitations in prior scientific findings. Our approach enhances the capabilities of LLM systems to generate limitations in research papers, enabling them to provide more concrete and constructive feedback.

This paper reformulates a classical result in probability theory from the 1930s in modern categorical terms: de Finetti's representation theorem is redescribed as limit statement for a chain of finite spaces in the Kleisli category of the Giry monad. This new limit is used to identify among exchangeable coalgebras the final one.

A common statistical task lies in showing asymptotic normality of certain statistics. In many of these situations, classical textbook results on weak convergence theory suffice for the problem at hand. However, there are quite some scenarios where stronger results are needed in order to establish an asymptotic normal approximation uniformly over a family of probability measures. In this note we collect some results in this direction. We restrict ourselves to weak convergence in mathbb R^d with continuous limit measures.

Diffusion language models have emerged as a promising approach for text generation. One would naturally expect this method to be an efficient replacement for autoregressive models since multiple tokens can be sampled in parallel during each diffusion step. However, its efficiency-accuracy trade-off is not yet well understood. In this paper, we present a rigorous theoretical analysis of a widely used type of diffusion language model, the Masked Diffusion Model (MDM), and find that its effectiveness heavily depends on the target evaluation metric. Under mild conditions, we prove that when using perplexity as the metric, MDMs can achieve near-optimal perplexity in sampling steps regardless of sequence length, demonstrating that efficiency can be achieved without sacrificing performance. However, when using the sequence error rate--which is important for understanding the "correctness" of a sequence, such as a reasoning chain--we show that the required sampling steps must scale linearly with sequence length to obtain "correct" sequences, thereby eliminating MDM's efficiency advantage over autoregressive models. Our analysis establishes the first theoretical foundation for understanding the benefits and limitations of MDMs. All theoretical findings are supported by empirical studies.

Standard infinite-width limits of neural networks sacrifice the ability for intermediate layers to learn representations from data. Recent work (A theory of representation learning gives a deep generalisation of kernel methods, Yang et al. 2023) modified the Neural Network Gaussian Process (NNGP) limit of Bayesian neural networks so that representation learning is retained. Furthermore, they found that applying this modified limit to a deep Gaussian process gives a practical learning algorithm which they dubbed the deep kernel machine (DKM). However, they only considered the simplest possible setting: regression in small, fully connected networks with e.g. 10 input features. Here, we introduce convolutional deep kernel machines. This required us to develop a novel inter-domain inducing point approximation, as well as introducing and experimentally assessing a number of techniques not previously seen in DKMs, including analogues to batch normalisation, different likelihoods, and different types of top-layer. The resulting model trains in roughly 77 GPU hours, achieving around 99% test accuracy on MNIST, 72% on CIFAR-100, and 92.7% on CIFAR-10, which is SOTA for kernel methods.

I propose a version of quantum mechanics featuring a discrete and finite number of states that is plausibly a model of the real world. The model is based on standard unitary quantum theory of a closed system with a finite-dimensional Hilbert space. Given certain simple conditions on the spectrum of the Hamiltonian, Schr\"odinger evolution is periodic, and it is straightforward to replace continuous time with a discrete version, with the result that the system only visits a discrete and finite set of state vectors. The biggest challenges to the viability of such a model come from cosmological considerations. The theory may have implications for questions of mathematical realism and finitism.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable abilities in structured reasoning and symbolic tasks, with coding emerging as a particular area of strength. This success has sparked growing interest in applying LLMs to mathematics, both in informal problem-solving and formal theorem proving. However, progress in formal mathematics has proven to be significantly more difficult, despite surface-level similarities between programming and proof construction. This discrepancy raises important questions about how LLMs ``reason'', how they are supervised, and whether they internally track a notion of computational or deductive state. In this article, we address the state-of-the-art of the discipline, focusing on recent models and benchmarks, and explore three central issues at the intersection of machine learning and mathematical cognition: (i) the trade-offs between formal and informal mathematics as training domains; (ii) the deeper reasons why proof generation remains more brittle than code synthesis; (iii) and the question of whether LLMs represent, or merely mimic, a notion of evolving logical state. Our goal is not to draw hard boundaries, but to identify where the current limits lie, and how they might be extended.

This paper provides theoretical insights into why and how deep learning can generalize well, despite its large capacity, complexity, possible algorithmic instability, nonrobustness, and sharp minima, responding to an open question in the literature. We also discuss approaches to provide non-vacuous generalization guarantees for deep learning. Based on theoretical observations, we propose new open problems and discuss the limitations of our results.

"Theory figures" are a staple of theoretical visualization research. Common shapes such as Cartesian planes and flowcharts can be used not only to explain conceptual contributions, but to think through and refine the contribution itself. Yet, theory figures tend to be limited to a set of standard shapes, limiting the creative and expressive potential of visualization theory. In this work, we explore how the shapes used in theory figures afford different understandings and explanations of their underlying phenomena. We speculate on the value of visualizing theories using more expressive configurations, such as icebergs, horseshoes, M\"obius strips, and BLT sandwiches. By reflecting on figure-making's generative role in the practice of theorizing, we conclude that theory is, in fact, shapes.

This paper is the second in the series Commutative Scaling of Width and Depth (WD) about commutativity of infinite width and depth limits in deep neural networks. Our aim is to understand the behaviour of neural functions (functions that depend on a neural network model) as width and depth go to infinity (in some sense), and eventually identify settings under which commutativity holds, i.e. the neural function tends to the same limit no matter how width and depth limits are taken. In this paper, we formally introduce and define the commutativity framework, and discuss its implications on neural network design and scaling. We study commutativity for the neural covariance kernel which reflects how network layers separate data. Our findings extend previous results established in [55] by showing that taking the width and depth to infinity in a deep neural network with skip connections, when branches are suitably scaled to avoid exploding behaviour, result in the same covariance structure no matter how that limit is taken. This has a number of theoretical and practical implications that we discuss in the paper. The proof techniques in this paper are novel and rely on tools that are more accessible to readers who are not familiar with stochastic calculus (used in the proofs of WD(I))).

We compute upper limits on the nanohertz-frequency isotropic stochastic gravitational wave background (GWB) using the 9-year data release from the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) collaboration. We set upper limits for a GWB from supermassive black hole binaries under power law, broken power law, and free spectral coefficient GW spectrum models. We place a 95\% upper limit on the strain amplitude (at a frequency of yr^{-1}) in the power law model of A_{rm gw} < 1.5times 10^{-15}. For a broken power law model, we place priors on the strain amplitude derived from simulations of Sesana (2013) and McWilliams et al. (2014). We find that the data favor a broken power law to a pure power law with odds ratios of 22 and 2.2 to one for the McWilliams and Sesana prior models, respectively. The McWilliams model is essentially ruled out by the data, and the Sesana model is in tension with the data under the assumption of a pure power law. Using the broken power-law analysis we construct posterior distributions on environmental factors that drive the binary to the GW-driven regime including the stellar mass density for stellar-scattering, mass accretion rate for circumbinary disk interaction, and orbital eccentricity for eccentric binaries, marking the first time that the shape of the GWB spectrum has been used to make astrophysical inferences. We then place the most stringent limits so far on the energy density of relic GWs, Omega_gw(f),h^2 < 4.2 times 10^{-10}, yielding a limit on the Hubble parameter during inflation of H_*=1.6times10^{-2}~m_{Pl}, where m_{Pl} is the Planck mass. Our limit on the cosmic string GWB, Omega_gw(f), h^2 < 2.2 times 10^{-10}, translates to a conservative limit of Gmu<3.3times 10^{-8} - a factor of 4 better than the joint Planck and high-l CMB data from other experiments.

As its width tends to infinity, a deep neural network's behavior under gradient descent can become simplified and predictable (e.g. given by the Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK)), if it is parametrized appropriately (e.g. the NTK parametrization). However, we show that the standard and NTK parametrizations of a neural network do not admit infinite-width limits that can learn features, which is crucial for pretraining and transfer learning such as with BERT. We propose simple modifications to the standard parametrization to allow for feature learning in the limit. Using the *Tensor Programs* technique, we derive explicit formulas for such limits. On Word2Vec and few-shot learning on Omniglot via MAML, two canonical tasks that rely crucially on feature learning, we compute these limits exactly. We find that they outperform both NTK baselines and finite-width networks, with the latter approaching the infinite-width feature learning performance as width increases. More generally, we classify a natural space of neural network parametrizations that generalizes standard, NTK, and Mean Field parametrizations. We show 1) any parametrization in this space either admits feature learning or has an infinite-width training dynamics given by kernel gradient descent, but not both; 2) any such infinite-width limit can be computed using the Tensor Programs technique. Code for our experiments can be found at github.com/edwardjhu/TP4.

These lectures give an introduction to the theory of holographic superconductors. These are superconductors that have a dual gravitational description using gauge/gravity duality. After introducing a suitable gravitational theory, we discuss its properties in various regimes: the probe limit, the effects of backreaction, the zero temperature limit, and the addition of magnetic fields. Using the gauge/gravity dictionary, these properties reproduce many of the standard features of superconductors. Some familiarity with gauge/gravity duality is assumed. A list of open problems is included at the end.

The last couple of years have witnessed emerging research that appropriates Theory-of-Mind (ToM) tasks designed for humans to benchmark LLM's ToM capabilities as an indication of LLM's social intelligence. However, this approach has a number of limitations. Drawing on existing psychology and AI literature, we summarize the theoretical, methodological, and evaluation limitations by pointing out that certain issues are inherently present in the original ToM tasks used to evaluate human's ToM, which continues to persist and exacerbated when appropriated to benchmark LLM's ToM. Taking a human-computer interaction (HCI) perspective, these limitations prompt us to rethink the definition and criteria of ToM in ToM benchmarks in a more dynamic, interactional approach that accounts for user preferences, needs, and experiences with LLMs in such evaluations. We conclude by outlining potential opportunities and challenges towards this direction.

Using the supersymmetric method of random matrix theory within the Heidelberg approach framework we provide statistical description of stationary intensity sampled in locations inside an open wave-chaotic cavity, assuming that the time-reversal invariance inside the cavity is fully broken. In particular, we show that when incoming waves are fed via a finite number M of open channels the probability density {cal P}(I) for the single-point intensity I decays as a power law for large intensities: {cal P}(I)sim I^{-(M+2)}, provided there is no internal losses. This behaviour is in marked difference with the Rayleigh law {cal P}(I)sim exp(-I/I) which turns out to be valid only in the limit Mto infty. We also find the joint probability density of intensities I_1, ldots, I_L in L>1 observation points, and then extract the corresponding statistics for the maximal intensity in the observation pattern. For Lto infty the resulting limiting extreme value statistics (EVS) turns out to be different from the classical EVS distributions.

Recent advances in photonic optimization have enabled calculation of performance bounds for a wide range of electromagnetic objectives, albeit restricted to single-material systems. Motivated by growing theoretical interest and fabrication advances, we present a framework to bound the performance of photonic heterostructures and apply it to investigate maximum absorption characteristics of multilayer films and compact, free-form multi-material scatterers. Limits predict trends seen in topology-optimized geometries -- often coming within factors of two of specific designs -- and may be exploited in conjunction with inverse designs to predict when heterostructures are expected to outperform their optimal single-material counterparts.

New light particles have received considerable attention in recent years. Baryon-number-violating (BNV) nucleon decays involving such light particles are able to provide stringent constraints. They exhibit distinctive experimental signatures that merit thorough investigation. We systematically investigate BNV nucleon decay with a light scalar in an effective field theory framework. Within this framework, we set stringent bounds on BNV operators using available experimental data and predict the occurrence of several BNV three-body nucleon decays. We further study contributions to dinucleon to dilepton transitions in a nucleus mediated by the scalar, which complements single nucleon decay. Finally, we provide three ultraviolet-complete models that can generate different subsets of BNV operators in leading order. Our theoretical framework will facilitate experimental searches for those exotic nucleon decays.

We use the AdS/CFT correspondence to study the thermodynamics of massive N=2 supersymmetric hypermultiplets coupled to N=4 supersymmetric SU(Nc) Yang-Mills theory in the limits of large Nc and large 't Hooft coupling. In particular, we study the theory at finite baryon number density. At zero temperature, we present an exact expression for the hypermultiplets' leading-order contribution to the free energy, and in the supergravity description we clarify which D-brane configuration is appropriate for any given value of the chemical potential. We find a second-order phase transition when the chemical potential equals the mass. At finite temperature, we present an exact expression for the hypermultiplets' leading-order contribution to the free energy at zero mass.

In this paper, we study the infinite-depth limit of finite-width residual neural networks with random Gaussian weights. With proper scaling, we show that by fixing the width and taking the depth to infinity, the pre-activations converge in distribution to a zero-drift diffusion process. Unlike the infinite-width limit where the pre-activation converge weakly to a Gaussian random variable, we show that the infinite-depth limit yields different distributions depending on the choice of the activation function. We document two cases where these distributions have closed-form (different) expressions. We further show an intriguing change of regime phenomenon of the post-activation norms when the width increases from 3 to 4. Lastly, we study the sequential limit infinite-depth-then-infinite-width and compare it with the more commonly studied infinite-width-then-infinite-depth limit.

We consider in this work quantities that can be obtained as limits of powers of parametrized matrices, for instance the inverse matrix or the logarithm of the determinant. Under the assumption of affine dependence in the parameters, we use the Empirical Interpolation Method (EIM) to derive an approximation for powers of these matrices, from which we derive a nonintrusive approximation for the aforementioned limits. We derive upper bounds of the error made by the obtained formula. Finally, numerical comparisons with classical intrusive and nonintrusive approximation techniques are provided: in the considered test-cases, our algorithm performs well compared to the nonintrusive ones.

We discuss relevant scalar deformations of a holographic theory with a compact boundary. An example of such a theory would be the global AdS_4 with its spatially compact boundary S^2. To introduce a relevant deformation, we choose to turn on a time-independent and spatially homogeneous non-normalizable scalar operator with m^2 = -2. The finite size of a compact boundary cuts down the RG flow at a finite length scale leading to an incomplete RG flow to IR. We discuss a version of {\it incomplete} C-theorem and an {\it incomplete} attractor like mechanism. We discuss the implication of our results for entanglement entropy and geometric quantities like scalar curvature, volume and mass scale of fundamental excitation of the how these quantities increase or decrease (often monotonically) with the strength of the deformation. Thermal physics of a holographic theory defined on a compact boundary is more interesting than its non-compact counterpart. It is well known that with a compact boundary, there is a possibility of a first order Hawking-Page transition dual to a de-confinement phase transition. From a gravity perspective, a relevant deformation dumps negative energy inside the bulk, increasing the effective cosmological constant (Lambda) of the AdS. Dumping more negative energy in the bulk would make the HP transition harder and the corresponding HP transition temperature would increase. However, we have found the size of the BH at the transition temperature decreases.

In training neural networks, it is common practice to use partial gradients computed over batches, mostly very small subsets of the training set. This approach is motivated by the argument that such a partial gradient is close to the true one, with precision growing only with the square root of the batch size. A theoretical justification is with the help of stochastic approximation theory. However, the conditions for the validity of this theory are not satisfied in the usual learning rate schedules. Batch processing is also difficult to combine with efficient second-order optimization methods. This proposal is based on another hypothesis: the loss minimum of the training set can be expected to be well-approximated by the minima of its subsets. Such subset minima can be computed in a fraction of the time necessary for optimizing over the whole training set. This hypothesis has been tested with the help of the MNIST, CIFAR-10, and CIFAR-100 image classification benchmarks, optionally extended by training data augmentation. The experiments have confirmed that results equivalent to conventional training can be reached. In summary, even small subsets are representative if the overdetermination ratio for the given model parameter set sufficiently exceeds unity. The computing expense can be reduced to a tenth or less.

This article establishes a complete approximate axiomatization for the real-closed field R expanded with all differentially-defined functions, including special functions such as sin(x), cos(x), e^x, dots. Every true sentence is provable up to some numerical approximation, and the truth of such approximations converge under mild conditions. Such an axiomatization is a fragment of the axiomatization for differential dynamic logic, and is therefore a finite extension of the axiomatization of real-closed fields. Furthermore, the numerical approximations approximate formulas containing special function symbols by FOL_{R} formulas, improving upon earlier decidability results only concerning closed sentences.

Invariance and equivariance to geometrical transformations have proven to be very useful inductive biases when training (convolutional) neural network models, especially in the low-data regime. Much work has focused on the case where the symmetry group employed is compact or abelian, or both. Recent work has explored enlarging the class of transformations used to the case of Lie groups, principally through the use of their Lie algebra, as well as the group exponential and logarithm maps. The applicability of such methods to larger transformation groups is limited by the fact that depending on the group of interest G, the exponential map may not be surjective. Further limitations are encountered when G is neither compact nor abelian. Using the structure and geometry of Lie groups and their homogeneous spaces, we present a framework by which it is possible to work with such groups primarily focusing on the Lie groups G = GL^{+}(n, R) and G = SL(n, R), as well as their representation as affine transformations R^{n} rtimes G. Invariant integration as well as a global parametrization is realized by decomposing the `larger` groups into subgroups and submanifolds which can be handled individually. Under this framework, we show how convolution kernels can be parametrized to build models equivariant with respect to affine transformations. We evaluate the robustness and out-of-distribution generalisation capability of our model on the standard affine-invariant benchmark classification task, where we outperform all previous equivariant models as well as all Capsule Network proposals.

Dynamical systems provide a comprehensive way to study complex and changing behaviors across various sciences. Many modern systems are too complicated to analyze directly or we do not have access to models, driving significant interest in learning methods. Koopman operators have emerged as a dominant approach because they allow the study of nonlinear dynamics using linear techniques by solving an infinite-dimensional spectral problem. However, current algorithms face challenges such as lack of convergence, hindering practical progress. This paper addresses a fundamental open question: When can we robustly learn the spectral properties of Koopman operators from trajectory data of dynamical systems, and when can we not? Understanding these boundaries is crucial for analysis, applications, and designing algorithms. We establish a foundational approach that combines computational analysis and ergodic theory, revealing the first fundamental barriers -- universal for any algorithm -- associated with system geometry and complexity, regardless of data quality and quantity. For instance, we demonstrate well-behaved smooth dynamical systems on tori where non-trivial eigenfunctions of the Koopman operator cannot be determined by any sequence of (even randomized) algorithms, even with unlimited training data. Additionally, we identify when learning is possible and introduce optimal algorithms with verification that overcome issues in standard methods. These results pave the way for a sharp classification theory of data-driven dynamical systems based on how many limits are needed to solve a problem. These limits characterize all previous methods, presenting a unified view. Our framework systematically determines when and how Koopman spectral properties can be learned.